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ACCORDING TO OXFORD Languages, the word invest means to “expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit.”
I like this definition better than some others because it includes the word “expectation,” which therefore should exclude casino gambling and sports betting. But what if you have an expectation of winning? Couldn’t casino gambling and sports betting both be considered investments? As Zach Galifianakis’s character said in The Hangover, “It’s not gambling if you know you’re going to win.”
How can one create this expectation? Much like eating steak at The Capital Grille, it’s best done using other people’s money.
I first put this axiom to the test during my Grand Tour of Europe, when I visited the Danubiana Art Museum outside Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia. After inspecting some ridiculously expensive but rather pedestrian pieces of modern art, I came across one of those racks that contain brochures of local must-see tourist attractions: balloon rides, ghost tours, ancient caverns and such. One of them offered €10 in chips for visiting the nearby Olympic Casino. Well, I picked up two, one for me and one for the missus.
The casino gave us €20 in special chips—the catch being they needed to be wagered. My inner arbitrageur kicked in and I started to figure out how I could most efficiently turn these funny euros into real ones.
I knew the house edge for blackjack and craps could be as low as zero for a skilled player, the only problem being I was not a skilled player. That left roulette and, as European roulette does not have a double zero, the house edge was only 2.7%.
I think the house was on to me. The croupier would not let me play roulette with my special chips. Instead, I made my way over to the blackjack table and tried to remember my basic strategy: always split aces and eights, double down on 11 and stand on a 17. Tyche, the Greek goddess of chance, was on my side. As soon as I lost my last pretend chip, I converted the real ones I’d won into 40 real euros.
Sky Bar’s monkey head cocktail
Those were promptly taken across the street to the Sky Bar for delightful views of Bratislava and, if I remember correctly, four equally delightful cocktails—one of which had dry ice vapors shooting out of a monkey’s head.
The next time I entered a casino was four years later. My wife and I had a house guest who may have had a gambling problem. Before she’d even arrived, she inquired about local options and was quite adamant that gambling was on the itinerary.
There used to be a time when there were only three gambling options in this country: Vegas, Atlantic City and the local bookie. Now, you can’t throw a pai gow poker table without hitting a casino.
Back then, a casino was filled with romance and style, a place where James Bond in a tux and Plenty O’Toole in a low-cut evening gown played baccarat and sipped Dom Perignon. I caught the tail end of this glory in the 1980s when I was in the Navy and visited the Monte Carlo Casino. A jacket and a modicum of manners were required for entry. I felt like James Bond— without Ms. O’Toole’s company, unfortunately.
My wife and I reluctantly joined our house guest’s gambling adventure. Once in the casino, she made a beeline for the slots, squeezing between a woman in a wheelchair breathing from a portable oxygen tank and an old man using a walker. This definitely wasn’t the set of Diamonds Are Forever.
Meanwhile, we made a beeline for the cashier and signed up for first-timer’s free play: $10 in slot play or $20 in food. We chose the sure thing and treated our now-poorer guest to a free lunch. The chicken wings tasted fine, but it wasn’t steak.
In an effort to secure a free steak, I subsequently contacted FanDuel, which offers online sportsbook gambling. It offered me $150 for placing one $5 bet. The catch was that the $150 was in non-withdrawable free bets. My plan was to turn this $150 in funny money into something more than $5 in real money.
To get that $150, I placed a $5 bet on the Chiefs to cover the 3.5-point spread against the Chargers on Sept. 15, 2022. While it didn’t matter whether I won or lost, a win to kick off my venture would have been nice. Unfortunately, with just two minutes remaining in the game, Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert dashed my hopes by throwing a fourth down 35-yard pass—a pass that set up a touchdown that resulted in the Chiefs winning by just three points.
I knew a calmly calculated scientific plan was now required. Three days later, after I settled down, I initiated one. I figured a series of $5 bets would best ensure investment success. With the house’s 9% take, I estimated this investment should yield about $61.
I’m from New York. Besides standing on line, walking fast and talking faster, there’s one thing that makes New Yorkers stand out—their utter indifference to college sports. This left the NFL, Major League Baseball and… tennis? I decided that a little internet research might be useful and found a large number of sites that offered expert betting analysis, almost as many as those offering expert stock analysis.
The FanDuel steak
I perused a few, but much like expert stock analysis, the advice offered seemed quite cursory. In the end, I decided to bet based on a sophisticated internal analysis—my gut. This had the added benefit of making watching these games all the more exciting. Before this “investment” scheme, I’d never bet on sports. I can subsequently understand why this excitement can cause problems for some people.
After wagering my last non-withdrawable dollar, I cashed out and determined that my profit was $110, almost twice my expected gain. Much like my stock market profits, I’m going to chalk this up to superior analysis—though I have no plan to wager any of my own money.
To keep with the theme of this article, I used my FanDuel investment profit to buy me and the missus the best steak in town. It tasted pretty damn good.
Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles.
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As an engineer I find gambling to be pointless and bordering on being a form of mental illness, but I am a lifetime winner because of gambling with OPM. (I can’t believe you didn’t use this ubiquitous acronym in your post.) A handful of us cut through Harah’s in New Orleans as a shortcut to a restaurant. There was a singe chip on the floor. One of my buds put it in a slot and with a single pull won $200. We divided that up and all gambled. I think I left with $20 net profit while others won, lost and in one case lost a bunch. I am pretty sure they threw another chip on the carpet after we left.
Steve Cousins, while to HD Style Guide does not mention the use of acronyms, the AP Style Guide states “Avoid on first reference, particularly if the audience is not familiar with the acronym. If using in second reference, include the acronym in parentheses on first reference.” Since I only mentioned it once, there was no need to include it.
I love gambling on the sports sites. Whenever I get a free bet of any kind, I usually bet both sides on two different sites. I can thus usually net between 60 and 65 percent of the free bet amount, vs. 45.4545454545% expected value if I bet a single “fair” wager with -110 odds. Unfortunately, lately I’ve been taking their deals on parlays and same-game parlays and not doing well. Hopefully my fortunes will turn back around. I remember that LAC-KC game you mentioned. DraftKings had a deal where if one team got up by a touchdown, you automatically won right then and there. I bet both sides. LAC did get up by a TD, but KC won, so I won both bets. DraftKings later said you couldn’t bet both sides in such a promotion, so now I bet the other side on a different site.
When I was still in grad school, I once accepted an offer to leave my work and studies behind and go make some money (taking pictures!) It all worked out wonderfully, except that I realized I had just done in the short term what I wasn’t willing to do for the long term. After all, I could make so much more if I just focused on making money all the time! But it’s still a temptation. How much would I have to pay you to get you to stop doing what you want to do, and come do what I want you to do? FanDuel is paying people to figure that out even as we speak….
> I decided to bet based on a sophisticated internal analysis—my gut.
You bet based on your gut, and yort gut was rewarded with a steak! Seems right to me
As you know I love your humorous articles. But seriously, at this point, you have enough material for a book on getting “free” stuff, e.g. casinos, gambling apps, timeshare presentations, checking account bonuses, etc.
that ‘free’ is best in quotes, as you did, because the few times that I have done this, the experience was expensive.
Other People’s Money (1991) also a great movie starring Danny DeVito.
Sadly I suspect you are an exception. FanDuel sounds precisely calculated to hook those likely to become addicts.
mytimetotravel, you make a valid point, FanDuel ain’t in the business of funding free steak.
Mike I’m waiting for Fanduel betting to be legal in Texas to try this advice. Also nice remembering Bratislava although I paid for a drink at the UFO Tower.
James McGlynn CFA RICP®, great minds drink alike.