ONE OF THE MOST recent contributions to factor investing comes from Robert Novy-Marx, a finance professor at the University of Rochester (“The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium,” Journal of Financial Economics, 2013, Vol. 108, No. 1). He examined the stock market performance of companies based on their profitability, as measured by the ratio of gross profits to assets. Gross profits are a company’s revenues minus what it cost the company to make the goods that were sold.
Don’t confuse gross profits with net income, which is the earnings number that investors typically look at. Novy-Marx notes that net income isn’t necessarily a good indicator of profitability because it can be depressed by, say, spending on research and development or an aggressive advertising campaign. That spending can mean greater profits down the road, yet it takes a short-term toll on reported earnings and thus can make companies look less profitable than they really are.
Novy-Marx found that buying companies with high gross profits, which is a form of growth investing, generates higher stock market returns. He also found that the strategy is especially effective if you buy more profitable companies, but focus on those with lower share prices relative to book value. In other words, by combining Novy-Marx’s profitability criteria with French and Fama’s value criteria, you should be able to identify stocks that are profitable but undervalued.
It would be hard to argue that buying more profitable companies is a riskier strategy, so there’s a greater danger that the premium offered by the profitability (or “quality”) effect will disappear relatively quickly. Both Dimensional Fund Advisors and AQR Capital Management have introduced mutual funds designed to take advantage of the profitability effect, while iShares has introduced iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF and iShares Edge MSCI International Quality Factor ETF. As they and others seek to exploit Novy-Marx’s insight, the stocks involved could see their prices bid up—and future returns will be lower.
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