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We often hear that we are a consumer driven economy, with estimates that consumer spending provides as much as 70% of GDP. I read a recent article by Ben Carlson that indicated that, at least for this year, Big Tech’s capital expenditure spending on AI is approaching a similar level. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index (I had no idea this existed) is up about 39% over the past year, compared to about 19% for the S&P 500. I have no idea where this will go, but it’s fascinating to watch.
Rick, do you think one day we’ll scan or input a bunch of documents into TurboTax AI and out will come a near perfect tax return? Taxes are so complicated now they need AI.
Patrick, thanks for reading and commenting. Great question. For many AARP clients with simple returns it is simply a matter of inputting their data and checking it, then writing out the return. If they are repeat customers their personal data is carrie over, which makes it even easier. We are not allowed to download data directly from financial institutions like individuals can do. Many taxpayers download their W-2s and 1099s electronically. If their returns don’t have much else, and take the standard deduction, it is pretty much complete.
The one area that I’m not sure AI can handle yet, and probably the best feature of the VITA program, is that each return is completely checked by another experienced preparer.
Saw a stat recently that nearly 70% of profits in the S&P 500 Index were generated by the top 10 companies.This concentration is certainly scary but just need to trust the process and think long term. At least that’s what I’m doing considering my retirement is far away!
It’s a little scary to have that much concentration in so few companies. Hard to imagine it ends well.
For you folks interested in AI, check out: ‘The Coming Wave, Technology, Power and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma’ by Mustafa Suleymen. Bill Gates, et al, recommended this book in a WSJ article. Suleymen is co-founder of Deepmind an AI company bought by Google. He became vice president of AI product management and policy at Google. I asked ChatGPT to summaries the book.
The book describes how artificial intelligence is becoming a “meta-technology” — a kind of master tool that will supercharge progress in almost every field. He explains that today’s large language models (like ChatGPT) are just the start; the next generation, which he calls Artificial Capable Intelligence (ACI), will be able to plan, make decisions, and carry out complex real-world tasks on its own. AI is already speeding up drug discovery, helping diagnose rare diseases, and driving new breakthroughs in science. Combined with robotics, it could transform industries from farming to shipping, while advances like quantum computing may make AI even more powerf