A FEW YEARS BACK, a fellow named Wylie Tollette faced uncomfortable questions as he sat before the public oversight committee of the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS). Tollette, the pension fund’s Chief Operating Investment Officer, was responsible for updating the committee on the status of its massive $350 billion portfolio.
But when a committee member asked about the fees CalPERS was paying to a particular group of investment managers, Tollette did not have a ready answer.
I LOVE THE PRICE war among index-fund providers, because it puts pressure on all money managers to lower fees. But I don’t think investors should pay much heed to differences in annual expenses that amount to just 0.01% or 0.02% a year, equal to 1 or 2 cents for every $100 invested—and they certainly shouldn’t switch funds for those potential cost savings.
To check I wasn’t missing something, I set out to do apples-to-apples comparisons among index funds in four highly competitively segments of the indexing market: large-cap U.S.
THE STOCK MARKET had a great 2017, gaining more than 20%. But was that kind of gain justified—or should it worry us, especially after the market had already tripled in recent years? I think it’s useful to understand the range of viewpoints, so we’re better prepared for 2018 and beyond. Here are the bull and bear cases:
Bull Case. As measured by the S&P 500 index, the U.S. market gained nearly 22% last year.
WE CAN VIEW INVESTING as an argument between two competing opinions: What we think an investment ought to be worth—and what the market currently says. It’s an argument the market usually wins.
While we can be highly confident what, say, a certificate of deposit or a Treasury note is worth, it’s much harder to put a value on stocks, gold, high-yield junk bonds and other riskier investments (and, I’d argue, all but impossible with bitcoin).
THE ABOVE HEADLINE overpromises, I readily admit. Still, three considerations—taxes, risk and the economic cycle—point to one conclusion: Paying down debt in 2018 looks like an awfully smart move.
Debtors’ prison. Ridding yourself of debt, even mortgage debt, has long been a savvy alternative to buying bonds and certificates of deposit. But thanks to the new tax law, it looks especially savvy right now—and especially if you’re married.
How come? The new tax law took away personal exemptions but compensated by roughly doubling the size of the standard deduction.
BACK IN 2013, I WAS recently divorced, living on my own for the first time and utterly naïve about investing. I was in my late 40s, I’d lost half of my small state pension in the divorce and I was afraid I’d be working well into my 70s if I didn’t get my financial life on track.
I set the ambitious goal of having a net worth of $500,000 by 2022, when I’ll turn 55.
IF YOU’RE WORRIED that indexing threatens the smooth functioning of the stock market, it’s helpful to spend an hour chatting over coffee with Charles Ellis—which is what I did last week when I was in New Haven, Connecticut. Ellis is one of indexing’s most eloquent advocates, including in his bestselling book Winning the Loser’s Game and in his latest tome, The Index Revolution.
Charley dismisses the idea that index funds are distorting the market—and scoffs at the idea that active management is headed for extinction.
WHAT’S A GOOD REASON to dial down your stock market exposure? A year after Donald Trump was elected president, many folks are still smarting from their decision to bail out of stocks. Clearly, we shouldn’t lighten up on shares just because we don’t like the guy in the White House.
We also shouldn’t bail out just because stocks sport high price-earnings ratios and skimpy dividend yields. No doubt about it, stocks today are expensive.
STOCK BUYBACKS ARE here to stay. The Securities and Exchange Commission opened the door in 1982, when it ruled that companies could repurchase their own stock without triggering accusations of share price manipulation. Ever since, more and more companies have taken advantage. Indeed, in recent years, U.S. corporations have spent more money buying back their own shares than paying out dividends.
Good news? I see both plusses and minuses. Here are the plusses:
Once you figure in buybacks,
THE BOGLEHEADS HAD their annual conference this week in the Philadelphia area, where Vanguard Group’s headquarters is located. Devotees of Vanguard’s 88-year-old founder John C. Bogle, the Bogleheads usually meet online at what’s probably the world’s best investment forum.
The star of their annual meeting was, of course, Jack himself. His latest book, an extensive revision of The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, just came out. What was on Jack’s mind?
IF YOUR INVESTMENTS climb in value, hold the champagne—until you figure out whether it’s a onetime gain or a repeatable performance.
Suppose your foreign stocks post gains because the dollar weakens. Or your bonds climb because interest rates fall. Or stocks rise because price-earnings ratios head higher. Or corporate earnings increase because profit margins expand. Or stocks jump because the corporate tax rate or the capital-gains tax rate is cut.
Sound familiar? All of these things have either happened over the long haul or helped drive share prices higher this year.
MY CLIENT ROSTER includes investors who have suffered enormous losses on their stock market investments. To ease their discomfort, I steer the conversation to what they’re entitled to deduct for capital losses. While the IRS imposes strict limits on simply writing off such losses, I assure my clients that there are perfectly legal, IRS-blessed opportunities to sidestep these restrictions.
The big hurdle is a deduction cap of $3,000 for both married couples and single filers.
I HEAR SO MANY compelling investment arguments. That U.S. stocks are destined to generate lackluster returns because valuations are so rich. That there’s no need to own foreign stocks because you get enough international exposure with U.S. multinationals. That interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
And yet U.S. stocks keep clocking gains, U.S. and foreign shares often generate radically different annual results, and interest rates show no signs of heading significantly higher.
I’M A BIG BELIEVER in transparency, so I’d like to tell you a little about my personal investments. As you might guess, the overwhelming majority of my money is allocated to simple, low-cost index funds—the same things I recommend in my writing and for my clients. That is true almost without exception. But today, I would like to describe one of those exceptions.
Many years ago, before I entered the investment industry, I purchased shares in a small mutual fund called the Mairs &
IT’S A COMMON PLOY among columnists: You start with the provocative statement—and then spend the rest of the article dancing like crazy, trying to defend it. Today’s provocative statement: Except in a few rare instances, I’m not sure why anybody would ever own municipal bonds.
At first blush, this sounds not just provocative, but downright stupid. If you’re in a high income-tax bracket and investing money through a regular taxable account, it would be foolish to buy taxable bonds and then pay income taxes on the interest you earn.