“WHEN THE FACTS change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Those words are sometimes attributed to Paul Samuelson, one of the the 20th century’s most influential economists. Due to a litany of cognitive biases—especially status quo and confirmation bias—letting go of cherished beliefs is easier said than done.
Which brings me to the topic of bonds and, more specifically, their role in the classic balanced portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
FOR AS LONG AS I CAN remember, I’ve been a worrier. I’ve spent too much time fretting about any number of things. I worry about money. I worry about my health. It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say there are times when I worry about not having enough to worry about.
As I get closer to retirement, I’ve resolved to limit how much time I spend worrying about the future. I’ve come to realize many of the decisions that have kept me up at night are things I have little control over.
AMONG THE MANY people around the world who can impact our success as investors, two rank as the most important to know and understand. Yet many investors fail to recognize this reality.
Sure, Warren Buffett and Janet Yellen and Burt Malkiel are well worth listening to and learning from. There are also many others at home and abroad who are important. But all serious students of investing would agree that the two I have in mind are much more important.
I HAVE BUT ONE New Year’s resolution: I’ll be working on a habit that promises to lower my risk of cancer, boost my immune system and decrease the odds that I’ll succumb to Alzheimer’s disease. This activity has a host of other health benefits: lower blood sugar levels, reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease and aiding weight loss. It has also been shown to improve mood, memory and creativity.
What is this wonder drug and how much will it cost me?
DECEMBER WAS a month to remember for the stock market. The S&P 500 returned 4.5%, while small caps were up a slightly weaker 3.4%. Foreign stocks rallied 3.7%, but emerging markets continued to lag, eking out a 1.5% return.
It was a stellar year for the bulls. The U.S. stock market posted a 25.7% return, as measured by Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (symbol: VTI). Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) started the year hot, handily beating large-company stocks,
LOOKING BACK OVER the past two years, one word comes to mind: extreme. It’s been a period of extremes in the market and the economy. Many have benefitted, but we’ve also seen excesses that aren’t necessarily healthy—from the rise in NFTs to the craze in SPACs to the boom in day trading. That’s why, as you look ahead to the coming year, the theme I recommend is moderation.
THERE’S A PARABLE that I don’t claim to have authored, but which I think about at the beginning of each year.
A man became justifiably upset when he realized his home had been invaded by crocodiles. He wasn’t sure where they came from, but they were there, lurking and menacing him.
He went to a local store to ask for a solution. The salesman enthusiastically proffered his answer: kittens. Kittens are cute, their purr is soothing and,
LET’S NOT CALL THEM resolutions because that imposes a sense of obligation. Rather, think of these as adjustments that could give you—and maybe your kids—a smoother ride in 2022:
Check the beneficiaries on your employer’s retirement plan, IRAs and life insurance policies. Sometimes money winds up with an ex-spouse or maybe a younger child gets left off the list. This is an easy fix—while you’re alive. After that, it’s a mess.
How much do you pay for your investments—in dollars,
WHEN WRITERS SUBMIT their latest article or blog post, I often thank them for “feeding the beast.” While tiny by internet standards, HumbleDollar has indeed become something of a beast, larger and more time-consuming than I ever imagined, but also—I like to think—occupying a unique place in the financial world’s ongoing conversation. This, I tell people, is the place where money grows up.
Here’s a look at what happened at HumbleDollar in 2021,
AS THEY APPROACH retirement age, workers sometimes get to choose between a monthly pension and a lump-sum payout. It’s a choice I recently made—one I researched carefully. In the end, I made an unusual decision that took a few extra steps.
Let me start at the beginning. In 1984, I began working for American National Insurance Company as an investment analyst. I left the company in 1991, but still qualified for a small pension.
AS 2031 WINDS DOWN, it’s time to look back at the major investment stories and themes that characterized the year and to look ahead to 2032.
Stocks had another banner year in 2031. Emerging markets led the way yet again, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index soaring 31%. This is the fourth year in a row that emerging markets were the top performer. Since 2022, emerging markets have returned 25% a year for more than a seven-fold gain.
A 2021 SURVEY by the Employee Benefit Research Institute found that three-quarters of retirees said the value of their financial assets was the same or higher than when they first retired. This finding was consistent from the poorest respondents to those with the most wealth. The typical time in retirement for the respondents was seven to 10 years.
One implication: Retirees may be underspending their accumulated wealth. EBRI examined five reasons for this possible underspending:
Saving assets for unforeseen costs later in retirement
Don’t feel spending down assets is necessary
Want to leave as much as possible to heirs
Feel better if account balances remain high
Fear of running out of money
The first two reasons—”saving for tomorrow” and “no current need to spend”—were reported by almost half of respondents.
HOW DO YOU STAY centered when markets plunge and volatility is off the charts? One of the ways I cope is by pulling out a wonderful financial book to reread.
In 1951, Alan Watts wrote The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of Anxiety. But his message is as timely today as it was then. “There is a feeling that we live in a time of unusual insecurity….
I WAS AN AIRLINE pilot for 42 years before retiring about a year ago. Traveling was the job and, of course, the opportunity to fly free on days off was a big deal. That meant more traveling. Now retired with kids and grandkids scattered around the country, my lovely bride and I continue to fly regularly.
Planning your next trip? Here are nine tips to make the inevitably stressful experience a little better:
Never book a trip with connecting flights unless it’s absolutely necessary.
YOU MIGHT ASK, “What makes an exchange-traded fund the best?” While it’s hard to say for sure which are the right funds to own, it’s often easy to spot a fund that should be tossed to the curb.
Take the iShares suite of exchange-traded index funds (ETFs). Did you know iShares offers two nearly identical emerging markets funds, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: EEM) and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)? The only material difference is what you pay.