Focusing on bear market dips seems like an invitation to market time. If one had simply remained invested over these time periods, the long term total returns for a 60/40 investor should be in the 8.0%+ range. The "real" return after fees (23 basis pts) and inflation (2-3%), should still provide a reasonable long term rate of return. And, if you can stand the volatility of a higher equity exposure, your comfort margin should be even greater.
Tom: I think a lot of us are having similar thoughts, and if you haven't already raised your cash levels and added to international holdings, probably should be thinking about it soon. That said, as past inflections in the market have demonstrated, the benefits of non-correlation can quickly become iffy when markets begin a serious nose dive. Finding a safe place to invest until any semblance of a market bottom has been reached can be hard. At my age (78), I am also increasingly conscious of my investment time horizon. in which I have less time to endure and then recover from a significant market decline. On the other hand, either I or my wife are likely to live for at least 10 more years, and a goodly portion of our holdings will be tied up for up to an additional 10 years in an inherited IRA. As we need to be reminded, past returns are no guarantee of future returns. That said, if you have the resources to live through a major decline, sometimes doing the minimum can also be a successful strategy.
Comments
Focusing on bear market dips seems like an invitation to market time. If one had simply remained invested over these time periods, the long term total returns for a 60/40 investor should be in the 8.0%+ range. The "real" return after fees (23 basis pts) and inflation (2-3%), should still provide a reasonable long term rate of return. And, if you can stand the volatility of a higher equity exposure, your comfort margin should be even greater.
Post: What, Me Worry?
Link to comment from March 14, 2026
My strategy, as well: rebalance with gains, not losses.
Post: The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025
Link to comment from March 14, 2026
Tom: I think a lot of us are having similar thoughts, and if you haven't already raised your cash levels and added to international holdings, probably should be thinking about it soon. That said, as past inflections in the market have demonstrated, the benefits of non-correlation can quickly become iffy when markets begin a serious nose dive. Finding a safe place to invest until any semblance of a market bottom has been reached can be hard. At my age (78), I am also increasingly conscious of my investment time horizon. in which I have less time to endure and then recover from a significant market decline. On the other hand, either I or my wife are likely to live for at least 10 more years, and a goodly portion of our holdings will be tied up for up to an additional 10 years in an inherited IRA. As we need to be reminded, past returns are no guarantee of future returns. That said, if you have the resources to live through a major decline, sometimes doing the minimum can also be a successful strategy.
Post: Sector Fund by Stealth
Link to comment from March 7, 2026