In applying this I'm still nervous as these models haven't ever experienced valuations this high and with the dollar weakening and debt continuing to grow plus how to account for inflation. I start to ask four of the most dangerous words in investing "Is this time different?" I'm looking closely at this to see what my asset allocation needs to be to have the best chances at "success" and Bill Bengens recent comments about higher stock allocations had a larger percentage of success in 85 % of all retirees (except for the ones that experienced sequence of returns with a bear market earlier in retirement).
Have you looked at Bill Bengen's work or website? He's he author of the 4% rule. He has a new book just out last month called "A Richer
Retirement, Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More? I was lucky enough to catch a podcast with him this week, Wade Pfau Retire with Style podcast 195, They also had him on a live Q & A for an hour this past Thursday which I see is on YouTube as well. Both were worth my time . if you look for him on YouTube hes making the rounds to promote his new book. He thinks the 4% rule is likely too conservative and its more like a 5.5% rule perhaps with some guardrails around it for inflation and bear markets where one might adjust spending. In the podcasts/ Q&A he says his most recent focus is on how portfolios with a higher stock allocation have preformed better over time. He seemed to be favoring a 65% stock allocation. His website is pretty cool with all the tables and worksheets from the book to try and determine your own personal "SAFEMAX" withdrawal strategy.
Great Topic Bogdan, Thanks as usual I'm learning much from other shares on this. We have as our primary card the Costco Visa and usually get about 1K cash back from it every March. We use Costco for booking cruises and double up with the cash back card they rebate after the cruise. A couple of years ago we picked up the Barclays AA card when they had a 75,000 mile promotion because we primarily fly American and it gives us free domestic checked bags and earlier boarding and the often greatly discount the flights for miles when there is excess capacity so I frequently am booking around 2cents per point used. Cost of that card is $99/year. We also this year added Chase Sapphire Preferred when they were offering the 100,000 promotion. For using credit card points I recommend the Nerd
Wallet Smart Travel podcast. Its about getting the best value out of your card and it almost always isn't found using the portal of the credit card company but transferring the points to a hotel chain of transfer partner, Hyatt is a good one the get top value for your points. This month Air France is offering a 20% promotion to transfer points for example. this is a $99 card and the primary "loss Damage Waiver" plus the trip interruption is a great feature of this card as well though the Brian Kelly ( the founder of the Points Guy) new book "How To Win at Travel" is also another great and very current resource you may want to check out from your library. Its not that much work and the payoff for my time is real and worth it for me!
I'm in my third year using Wealthtrace which they tout as more of a wealth tracking software than just financial planning or retirement planning. The Roth conversion tools were what got me to try them as that was the primary problem I was trying to solve for. I added New Retirement earlier this summer first to check the Roth results from Wealthtrace, but later to see the difference between the two. The Roth conversion tools in New Retirement were of little value for us because at this time I couldn't choose which accounts you want to convert from and we exclusively want to convert my wifes IRA not mine at this time. I do get comfort from the Monte Carlo analysis. I linked my brokerage to Wealthtrace to take advantage of how they use historical annual return and volatility for each holding (vs what appears to be user input and assumptions on other calculators). I will likely de-link changing my credentials and only link quarterly or semi-annually and then de-link to reduce the risk of theft and exposure as my portfolio doesn't change significantly.
I'm relatively new here andthis is my first post . A couple of books that made me rethink the need (or more accurately did I want to take on the cost both in dollars and performance) for paid help are the Bogleheads guide to investing and the Bogleheads guide to the three fund portfolio. The Bogleheads guide to investing makes the point eloquently about the cost of a advisor on a percentage. In the last couple of years I picked up an online financial management tool called Wealthtrace that then made me completely comfortable doing it on my own. It provided me with a detailed analysis of my situation and allowed me to run various scenarios to look and my tax liabilities. You can get more help when needed, on an hourly basis. I paid to have my plan looked over by someone at Wealthtrace on an hourly basis ( who is a CFP) and we did it in 45 min, best money I ever spent because it gave me peace of mind. The retirement section of Humbledollar is a tremendous read as well and provides a tremendous education ( I'm suggesting my son start there). On the other hand I can't talk my sister out of her Edward Jones representative managing a large 401K rollover into a bunch of managed funds with high expenses because she doesn't want to. It's costing her a large amount of money .. but shes happy and can afford it I suppose. Some people choose to do it themselves some don't. It doesn't take a lot of skill but it does take the will. I will say it can add to peace of mind to be able to have someone available to take a quick look at it from time to time just for validation ( but only on an hourly basis)
Comments
In applying this I'm still nervous as these models haven't ever experienced valuations this high and with the dollar weakening and debt continuing to grow plus how to account for inflation. I start to ask four of the most dangerous words in investing "Is this time different?" I'm looking closely at this to see what my asset allocation needs to be to have the best chances at "success" and Bill Bengens recent comments about higher stock allocations had a larger percentage of success in 85 % of all retirees (except for the ones that experienced sequence of returns with a bear market earlier in retirement).
Post: Smoke and Mirrors with a $1 Million Portfolio
Link to comment from September 15, 2025
Have you looked at Bill Bengen's work or website? He's he author of the 4% rule. He has a new book just out last month called "A Richer Retirement, Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More? I was lucky enough to catch a podcast with him this week, Wade Pfau Retire with Style podcast 195, They also had him on a live Q & A for an hour this past Thursday which I see is on YouTube as well. Both were worth my time . if you look for him on YouTube hes making the rounds to promote his new book. He thinks the 4% rule is likely too conservative and its more like a 5.5% rule perhaps with some guardrails around it for inflation and bear markets where one might adjust spending. In the podcasts/ Q&A he says his most recent focus is on how portfolios with a higher stock allocation have preformed better over time. He seemed to be favoring a 65% stock allocation. His website is pretty cool with all the tables and worksheets from the book to try and determine your own personal "SAFEMAX" withdrawal strategy.
Post: Smoke and Mirrors with a $1 Million Portfolio
Link to comment from September 14, 2025
Great Topic Bogdan, Thanks as usual I'm learning much from other shares on this. We have as our primary card the Costco Visa and usually get about 1K cash back from it every March. We use Costco for booking cruises and double up with the cash back card they rebate after the cruise. A couple of years ago we picked up the Barclays AA card when they had a 75,000 mile promotion because we primarily fly American and it gives us free domestic checked bags and earlier boarding and the often greatly discount the flights for miles when there is excess capacity so I frequently am booking around 2cents per point used. Cost of that card is $99/year. We also this year added Chase Sapphire Preferred when they were offering the 100,000 promotion. For using credit card points I recommend the Nerd Wallet Smart Travel podcast. Its about getting the best value out of your card and it almost always isn't found using the portal of the credit card company but transferring the points to a hotel chain of transfer partner, Hyatt is a good one the get top value for your points. This month Air France is offering a 20% promotion to transfer points for example. this is a $99 card and the primary "loss Damage Waiver" plus the trip interruption is a great feature of this card as well though the Brian Kelly ( the founder of the Points Guy) new book "How To Win at Travel" is also another great and very current resource you may want to check out from your library. Its not that much work and the payoff for my time is real and worth it for me!
Post: What is your credit card rewards strategy?
Link to comment from September 13, 2025
I'm in my third year using Wealthtrace which they tout as more of a wealth tracking software than just financial planning or retirement planning. The Roth conversion tools were what got me to try them as that was the primary problem I was trying to solve for. I added New Retirement earlier this summer first to check the Roth results from Wealthtrace, but later to see the difference between the two. The Roth conversion tools in New Retirement were of little value for us because at this time I couldn't choose which accounts you want to convert from and we exclusively want to convert my wifes IRA not mine at this time. I do get comfort from the Monte Carlo analysis. I linked my brokerage to Wealthtrace to take advantage of how they use historical annual return and volatility for each holding (vs what appears to be user input and assumptions on other calculators). I will likely de-link changing my credentials and only link quarterly or semi-annually and then de-link to reduce the risk of theft and exposure as my portfolio doesn't change significantly.
Post: Retirement Calculators
Link to comment from September 2, 2024
I'm relatively new here andthis is my first post . A couple of books that made me rethink the need (or more accurately did I want to take on the cost both in dollars and performance) for paid help are the Bogleheads guide to investing and the Bogleheads guide to the three fund portfolio. The Bogleheads guide to investing makes the point eloquently about the cost of a advisor on a percentage. In the last couple of years I picked up an online financial management tool called Wealthtrace that then made me completely comfortable doing it on my own. It provided me with a detailed analysis of my situation and allowed me to run various scenarios to look and my tax liabilities. You can get more help when needed, on an hourly basis. I paid to have my plan looked over by someone at Wealthtrace on an hourly basis ( who is a CFP) and we did it in 45 min, best money I ever spent because it gave me peace of mind. The retirement section of Humbledollar is a tremendous read as well and provides a tremendous education ( I'm suggesting my son start there). On the other hand I can't talk my sister out of her Edward Jones representative managing a large 401K rollover into a bunch of managed funds with high expenses because she doesn't want to. It's costing her a large amount of money .. but shes happy and can afford it I suppose. Some people choose to do it themselves some don't. It doesn't take a lot of skill but it does take the will. I will say it can add to peace of mind to be able to have someone available to take a quick look at it from time to time just for validation ( but only on an hourly basis)
Post: I Ain’t Stupid Ya Know
Link to comment from August 27, 2024