AUTHOR: r r on 12/28/2025 FIRST: R Quinn on 12/28/2025 | RECENT: Len Hamilton on 1/6
Comments
How are a portfolio and a bar of soap similar? The more you touch it the smaller it gets.
If you’re happy with how your portfolio has performed don’t mess with it. I believe that sticking with a plan will always yield better results than continuously tweaking it. That being said since you are looking for feedback. I would start with evaluating the intended purpose of each dollar. It seems that your pension & SS are covering your basic needs. I will have a similar situation and plan to treat that “guaranteed income” as the stable/conservative/bond portion allowing me to limit my use of cash-like investments on the rest of my portfolio. So, I think your 41% allocation to stable investments could serve you and future generations better if it/more of it, were invested in equities. For equity investments, I have loosely followed the 10-equity class diversification strategy espoused by Paul Merriman. It’s not very exciting (in good markets or bad), because it successfully diversifies your portfolio: growth and value, big and small & domestically and internationally, but it does move steadily up and to the right over time.
If you earmark specific dollars that you intend to leave to future generations, invest those like they should for a longer time line in low cost, well diversified equity funds.
As the investment timeline increases the risk associated with equities decreases and risk associated with bonds increases. Whatever changes you decide to make (if any) just make sure they allow you to sleep well at night.
As I understand it, there is a very logical reason for the 2-year look back. 2 years ago is the most recent income numbers available. Medicare applies IRMAA based on your income, and they receive those income values from the IRS.
The IRS doesn’t know what your current year income is because you haven’t earned it yet.
In January of each year (when new IRMAA brackets are applied) the IRS doesn’t know what you earned last year either because taxes aren’t required to be filed until April 15th. So for the 2026 application of IRMAA the most recent income numbers available are 2024. I do have some heartburn with the previous practice of freezing IRMAA brackets (see 2011-2019) which caused more folks to be subject to IRMAA and advance quickly through the unadjusted tiers. But I suppose one could argue that this was a tactic used to address the long term solvency of Medicare which is in worse financial condition than SS.
It’s been quite a while since I sat across the table from a salesperson to BEGIN negotiations on vehicle purchase. In fact the last time I did that, the high pressure tactics were so distasteful that I walked out. When the dealership manager called days later to entice me to come back in, I was very clear that there was no amount of discount he could offer that would cause me to do business with his dealership again. Instead I negotiate the price before I ever walk in the door. Dealerships have had internet sales teams for 20 years. Once I have identified the car that I want, I contact multiple dealerships and put them in competition with each other. I am fortunate here in SW Ohio to have so many large cities within a short drive. Heck, for the right price I may even go to the state up north (outside of football season of course). And many dealers will deliver a car to you for a reasonable fee. I have been amazed at how some dealers even will negotiate against themselves. If I just leave an email unanswered for 24 hours, I’ll get a follow-up lowering the price or adding some dealer goodies. I typically buy used and there are apps out there that can tell you how long a car has been sitting on a dealer’s lot. If they have a car they can’t move they are more motivated to negotiate. This is valuable even if it’s not the exact car I want (like wrong color for example). I can take that offer which I have in writing and use it to negotiate with a dealer who does have a specific car I want. This works great and all from the comfort of your own couch. Unless it’s a Toyota and then, then all bets are off because they barely make to the lot before someone scoops them up.
Unbelievable!
Here in SW Ohio the delivery companies (particularly FedEx) play a game of random porch delivery. We live at the furthest end of our neighborhood and the delivery drivers seem to fatigue before they get to us, so they just leave the packages of whichever porch between the main road and final culdesac that suits them that day.
We have a neighborhood email thread that primarily consists of delivery pictures asking neighbors to identify the porch where a delivery was made.
Thanks for the great analysis and break down of these new accounts!
TBH it has confirmed my initial thoughts...Trump accounts are a solution in search of a problem.
One benefit I hadn’t thought of was the potential ability to convert to a Roth without earned income. Mathematically a benefit, but I’m not so sure about it being a lifestyle benefit. As a parent I’ve seen substantial personal growth from my kids having to deal with difficult members of the public and demanding bosses at their part-time jobs. I started and contributed to UTMA accounts for my daughters. At first there was not a defined purpose for the accounts, but as they entered their teen years it became obvious. These accounts became the matching funds for their Roth IRA contributions. This served to incentivize them to contribute to their Roths and to reduce the UTMA balances prior to FAFSA reporting. Low annual earnings and reasonable withdrawals resulted in tax free growth for them. The remaining modest balances in these accounts will become their emergency funds as they head off into the world. We also funded 529’s for each child. In Ohio we receive a state tax exemption up to $4k contributed per child per year. My wife and I were able to emphasize to them that each dollar in scholarships, grants etc. means a dollar+ in your Roth IRA (a penny saved is a penny compounded!) If I had a child today (makes me dizzy just typing that) I would certainly accept the gracious $1k contribution from Uncle Sam, but I don’t see that the new accounts function as well as what we currently have at our disposal and certainly not better.
Another consideration when deciding to rollover or not rollover is ERISA protection.
Employer sponsored plans are typically protected from creditors, bankruptcy and other legal actions. In many states IRAs do not enjoy these same safeguards.
I find it challenging to know what to do with the results from qualitative studies such as the ones David cited above and the General Social Survey Jonathon referenced in his post. First of all who is responding to these surveys? I can’t remember the last time I (or someone I know) was involved in a survey, can you? Is there a demographic skew based on those available and willing to respond to a survey? For those who do respond to surveys, I suspect they are biased by the peer group the respondents identify with. This is similar to the “Are you rich?” Or “ Are you middle-class?” surveys. IMO, the answer is “It depends on who I am comparing myself to”. Are you the average of your 5 closest acquaintances? Or do you aspire to be the lottery winner next door? Are enough people surveyed to overcome the biases & represent us as a nation? Probably so, but it lingers as a curiosity in my mind. Quantitatively speaking, (I’m making a jump here to use suicide rates as a measurement for unhappiness and I don’t mean to marginalize those suffering from mental illness or suicidal experiences in doing so) Nordic countries were near the top of the list of countries in suicide rates through 2019 then their governments dedicated resources to national mental health improvement. Did they improve mental health by addressing real
problems? Did they affect change by adjusting the attitude of their citizens? Did they change the adopted identity of peer groups? i.e. I’m a sad person to I’m a happy person? Then there’s the question…”Should we be happy?” I think we all want to be happy, but is it best to achieve it? Does happiness lead to complacency? Does a bit of unhappiness lead to innovation and improvement in the pursuit? I think on an individual level unhappiness is not good, potentially even deadly, but on a national level it contributes an overall strive for constant improvement.
I apologize for the rambling stream of consciousness!
You’re welcome. Here is a link to a plain language Ed Slott article on Roth Distribution Ordering Rules.
https://irahelp.com/slottreport/roth-ira-distribution-ordering-rules/
C Z, With Roth’s being such a big topic for discussion, I’m surprised no one has responded to this. The 5-year waiting period for conversions only applies to earnings, not the amount originally converted, and the 10% penalty is waived if you are over 59.5.
I find it amazing how triggered we are (myself included) by the cost of gasoline. We will drive miles out of our way to go to a a fuel station that is $0.10 cheaper. A grand savings of $2.00, assuming a 20 gallon tank. IMO it’s because of the public nature of the pricing.
It seems every intersection has four large signs trying to entice us to stop in and top off. The price of gasoline is even posted to the thousandths place, always a 9, because of our sensitivity ( $.18 more than we believe to fill that 20 gallon tank). If one of those signs is a penny cheaper ($0.20 savings on a tank). We will attempt crazy left turns, go around the block, or do a u-turn around the median into oncoming traffic to keep those two dimes in our pocket.
Gasoline retailers know this. They can see their competitors’ price in big red numbers on the opposite corner. When the wholesale price of gasoline drops a game of chicken starts. The retailers hold on to their profits until their volumes are impacted or their competitor blinks and is first to adjust their price. Then everyone follows suit. It’s rare to find a gasoline retailer that does not behave this way. It seems Costco is one of the few. They markup everything including fuel a standard percentage. As a result I tend to find fuel retailers in competition with Costco Fuel to not only be cheaper, but also more responsive to changes in the market.
Comments
How are a portfolio and a bar of soap similar? The more you touch it the smaller it gets. If you’re happy with how your portfolio has performed don’t mess with it. I believe that sticking with a plan will always yield better results than continuously tweaking it. That being said since you are looking for feedback. I would start with evaluating the intended purpose of each dollar. It seems that your pension & SS are covering your basic needs. I will have a similar situation and plan to treat that “guaranteed income” as the stable/conservative/bond portion allowing me to limit my use of cash-like investments on the rest of my portfolio. So, I think your 41% allocation to stable investments could serve you and future generations better if it/more of it, were invested in equities. For equity investments, I have loosely followed the 10-equity class diversification strategy espoused by Paul Merriman. It’s not very exciting (in good markets or bad), because it successfully diversifies your portfolio: growth and value, big and small & domestically and internationally, but it does move steadily up and to the right over time. If you earmark specific dollars that you intend to leave to future generations, invest those like they should for a longer time line in low cost, well diversified equity funds. As the investment timeline increases the risk associated with equities decreases and risk associated with bonds increases. Whatever changes you decide to make (if any) just make sure they allow you to sleep well at night.
Post: Critique my investment strategy or lack thereof
Link to comment from March 1, 2026
As I understand it, there is a very logical reason for the 2-year look back. 2 years ago is the most recent income numbers available. Medicare applies IRMAA based on your income, and they receive those income values from the IRS. The IRS doesn’t know what your current year income is because you haven’t earned it yet. In January of each year (when new IRMAA brackets are applied) the IRS doesn’t know what you earned last year either because taxes aren’t required to be filed until April 15th. So for the 2026 application of IRMAA the most recent income numbers available are 2024. I do have some heartburn with the previous practice of freezing IRMAA brackets (see 2011-2019) which caused more folks to be subject to IRMAA and advance quickly through the unadjusted tiers. But I suppose one could argue that this was a tactic used to address the long term solvency of Medicare which is in worse financial condition than SS.
Post: Is IRMAA a tax, a fee or a reduction in subsidy?
Link to comment from January 6, 2026
It’s been quite a while since I sat across the table from a salesperson to BEGIN negotiations on vehicle purchase. In fact the last time I did that, the high pressure tactics were so distasteful that I walked out. When the dealership manager called days later to entice me to come back in, I was very clear that there was no amount of discount he could offer that would cause me to do business with his dealership again. Instead I negotiate the price before I ever walk in the door. Dealerships have had internet sales teams for 20 years. Once I have identified the car that I want, I contact multiple dealerships and put them in competition with each other. I am fortunate here in SW Ohio to have so many large cities within a short drive. Heck, for the right price I may even go to the state up north (outside of football season of course). And many dealers will deliver a car to you for a reasonable fee. I have been amazed at how some dealers even will negotiate against themselves. If I just leave an email unanswered for 24 hours, I’ll get a follow-up lowering the price or adding some dealer goodies. I typically buy used and there are apps out there that can tell you how long a car has been sitting on a dealer’s lot. If they have a car they can’t move they are more motivated to negotiate. This is valuable even if it’s not the exact car I want (like wrong color for example). I can take that offer which I have in writing and use it to negotiate with a dealer who does have a specific car I want. This works great and all from the comfort of your own couch. Unless it’s a Toyota and then, then all bets are off because they barely make to the lot before someone scoops them up.
Post: The Monthly Payment Trap: How Car Dealerships Hide the Real Cost
Link to comment from December 16, 2025
Unbelievable! Here in SW Ohio the delivery companies (particularly FedEx) play a game of random porch delivery. We live at the furthest end of our neighborhood and the delivery drivers seem to fatigue before they get to us, so they just leave the packages of whichever porch between the main road and final culdesac that suits them that day. We have a neighborhood email thread that primarily consists of delivery pictures asking neighbors to identify the porch where a delivery was made.
Post: A Record Journey
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Thanks for the great analysis and break down of these new accounts! TBH it has confirmed my initial thoughts...Trump accounts are a solution in search of a problem. One benefit I hadn’t thought of was the potential ability to convert to a Roth without earned income. Mathematically a benefit, but I’m not so sure about it being a lifestyle benefit. As a parent I’ve seen substantial personal growth from my kids having to deal with difficult members of the public and demanding bosses at their part-time jobs. I started and contributed to UTMA accounts for my daughters. At first there was not a defined purpose for the accounts, but as they entered their teen years it became obvious. These accounts became the matching funds for their Roth IRA contributions. This served to incentivize them to contribute to their Roths and to reduce the UTMA balances prior to FAFSA reporting. Low annual earnings and reasonable withdrawals resulted in tax free growth for them. The remaining modest balances in these accounts will become their emergency funds as they head off into the world. We also funded 529’s for each child. In Ohio we receive a state tax exemption up to $4k contributed per child per year. My wife and I were able to emphasize to them that each dollar in scholarships, grants etc. means a dollar+ in your Roth IRA (a penny saved is a penny compounded!) If I had a child today (makes me dizzy just typing that) I would certainly accept the gracious $1k contribution from Uncle Sam, but I don’t see that the new accounts function as well as what we currently have at our disposal and certainly not better.
Post: Trump Accounts: A Deep Dive into Kids’ Savings
Link to comment from August 23, 2025
Another consideration when deciding to rollover or not rollover is ERISA protection. Employer sponsored plans are typically protected from creditors, bankruptcy and other legal actions. In many states IRAs do not enjoy these same safeguards.
Post: Ninety Nine, I mean Eight Retirement Tips
Link to comment from June 28, 2025
I find it challenging to know what to do with the results from qualitative studies such as the ones David cited above and the General Social Survey Jonathon referenced in his post. First of all who is responding to these surveys? I can’t remember the last time I (or someone I know) was involved in a survey, can you? Is there a demographic skew based on those available and willing to respond to a survey? For those who do respond to surveys, I suspect they are biased by the peer group the respondents identify with. This is similar to the “Are you rich?” Or “ Are you middle-class?” surveys. IMO, the answer is “It depends on who I am comparing myself to”. Are you the average of your 5 closest acquaintances? Or do you aspire to be the lottery winner next door? Are enough people surveyed to overcome the biases & represent us as a nation? Probably so, but it lingers as a curiosity in my mind. Quantitatively speaking, (I’m making a jump here to use suicide rates as a measurement for unhappiness and I don’t mean to marginalize those suffering from mental illness or suicidal experiences in doing so) Nordic countries were near the top of the list of countries in suicide rates through 2019 then their governments dedicated resources to national mental health improvement. Did they improve mental health by addressing real problems? Did they affect change by adjusting the attitude of their citizens? Did they change the adopted identity of peer groups? i.e. I’m a sad person to I’m a happy person? Then there’s the question…”Should we be happy?” I think we all want to be happy, but is it best to achieve it? Does happiness lead to complacency? Does a bit of unhappiness lead to innovation and improvement in the pursuit? I think on an individual level unhappiness is not good, potentially even deadly, but on a national level it contributes an overall strive for constant improvement. I apologize for the rambling stream of consciousness!
Post: Does a Happy Country Lead to Happy Individuals?
Link to comment from June 21, 2025
You’re welcome. Here is a link to a plain language Ed Slott article on Roth Distribution Ordering Rules. https://irahelp.com/slottreport/roth-ira-distribution-ordering-rules/
Post: RDQ Sorry folks, I still see annuities, including deferred annuities, as a viable option for creating steady retirement income.
Link to comment from May 4, 2025
C Z, With Roth’s being such a big topic for discussion, I’m surprised no one has responded to this. The 5-year waiting period for conversions only applies to earnings, not the amount originally converted, and the 10% penalty is waived if you are over 59.5.
Post: RDQ Sorry folks, I still see annuities, including deferred annuities, as a viable option for creating steady retirement income.
Link to comment from May 4, 2025
I find it amazing how triggered we are (myself included) by the cost of gasoline. We will drive miles out of our way to go to a a fuel station that is $0.10 cheaper. A grand savings of $2.00, assuming a 20 gallon tank. IMO it’s because of the public nature of the pricing. It seems every intersection has four large signs trying to entice us to stop in and top off. The price of gasoline is even posted to the thousandths place, always a 9, because of our sensitivity ( $.18 more than we believe to fill that 20 gallon tank). If one of those signs is a penny cheaper ($0.20 savings on a tank). We will attempt crazy left turns, go around the block, or do a u-turn around the median into oncoming traffic to keep those two dimes in our pocket. Gasoline retailers know this. They can see their competitors’ price in big red numbers on the opposite corner. When the wholesale price of gasoline drops a game of chicken starts. The retailers hold on to their profits until their volumes are impacted or their competitor blinks and is first to adjust their price. Then everyone follows suit. It’s rare to find a gasoline retailer that does not behave this way. It seems Costco is one of the few. They markup everything including fuel a standard percentage. As a result I tend to find fuel retailers in competition with Costco Fuel to not only be cheaper, but also more responsive to changes in the market.
Post: A Rant about the Price of Gas
Link to comment from May 4, 2025