Investment Versus Speculation
18 replies
AUTHOR: Philip Stein on 4/1/2026
FIRST: Doug C on 4/1 | RECENT: Andy Morrison on 4/15
Cash Ain’t Trash
18 replies
AUTHOR: Philip Stein on 12/26/2025
FIRST: Winston Smith on 12/26/2025 | RECENT: David J. Kupstas on 12/27/2025
How Big Is Your Umbrella, Follow-Up
4 replies
AUTHOR: Philip Stein on 5/1/2025
FIRST: Ben Rodriguez on 5/2/2025 | RECENT: Philip Stein on 5/3/2025
How Big is Your Umbrella?
16 replies
AUTHOR: Philip Stein on 4/11/2025
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Meet Marcus
8 replies
AUTHOR: Philip Stein on 6/23/2024
FIRST: David Powell on 6/23/2024 | RECENT: Bottom Feeder on 6/29/2024
MANY FOLKS EQUATE a stock market downturn with losing money. I often hear comments like, “I lost money yesterday. The stock market went down.”
I believe this impression of loss is an illusion, one that can be detrimental to our financial health—because it blinds us to certain fundamental truths.
1. Illusion of lost money. You only lose money if you sell shares at a loss. If you don’t sell amid a downturn,
I RECENTLY FINISHED reading the second edition of William Bernstein’s The Four Pillars of Investing—twice. This new edition is a significant rewrite of the first edition that was published in 2002. Even if you’ve read the first edition, reading the second edition is worth your time.
Though I’ve read most of the books written by well-known investment luminaries familiar to HumbleDollar readers, there were still pearls of wisdom I gathered from this second edition.
COMMENTARY ABOUT America’s wealth inequality seems to be everywhere. According to Wikipedia, as of 2021’s fourth quarter, Federal Reserve data indicate that the top 1% of households hold 32.3% of the country’s wealth.
Meanwhile, Pew Research Center reports that the median wealth of the richest 20% of American families increased by an inflation-adjusted 45% between 1998 and 2007, while the median wealth of middle-income families rose just 16%.
And then there’s the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
DURING MY 30s, I worked for a defense contractor. The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989 and the Soviet Union imploded just over two years later. Many at work believed that the end of the Cold War would lead Congress to reduce defense spending. Sure enough, layoffs at my company commenced soon after.
I was fortunate to avoid being laid off. I do recall, though, overhearing one coworker in his 50s who, after receiving a pink slip,
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB has written a trilogy on the topic of chance: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and Antifragile. I didn’t find these three books to be easy reading, plus Taleb has strong opinions, which may turn off some readers. Still, there’s a host of investment lessons to be culled from his works.
Taleb argues that randomness plays a powerful role in financial markets and,
IF I MADE A LIST of all the dumb things investors do, I likely committed them all. I chased performance, sold stocks in a bear market, invested in things I didn’t understand—you get the picture.
Yet, despite the numerous setbacks I suffered before I matured as an investor, I was able to retire comfortably. How was that possible? My conclusion: compound growth. Indeed, I believe compounding is a surer way to wealth than picking market-beating investments.


Comments
Mark, I concede your point. ASML was founded as a joint venture between two Dutch technology companies. It’s chip-making equipment is world-class and the people who built ASML have every reason to be proud of their accomplishments. I have also read that ASML once considered moving to another European location because it was unhappy with the Dutch government’s approach to fostering growth. Could high taxes have been one reason? Could ASML have had difficulty attracting talent with offers of stock options if the Dutch government taxes unrealized capital gains as income? In 2021, Shell relocated its global headquarters to the UK partly due to Dutch dividend taxation. The Netherlands, like many western European countries, has a strong social safety net funded by higher taxes. And yes, innovation and high taxes can coexist. But when innovative companies seek to expand their global reach, do high taxes at home become an obstacle? As far as I am aware, there is no European technology company that has the global reach of an Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, etc. I wonder why that is?
Post: Billionaires, taxes and you
Link to comment from May 30, 2026
Many of the comments I’ve read in this post appear to suggest that Americans don’t pay enough in taxes to fund our government. They seem to feel that, to improve our fiscal condition, we need to raise tax rates generally or on billionaires specifically. But even if billionaires were forced to pay a few billions more in taxes, that wouldn’t seem make much of a dent in our deficit. Does our federal government have a revenue problem or a spending problem? I feel it’s the latter. If our government received more tax revenue, my hunch is that most of that money would be spent rather than used to reduce our debt level. How many billions are wasted in ineffective programs or to outright fraud? How many able-bodied people fraudulently claim disability to avoid work and secure a place on the welfare rolls? Personally, I wouldn’t support a tax increase until there was significant progress made in spending reform. Unfortunately, our elected representatives seem unwilling to make hard choices and prefer to kick the can down the road, especially in an election year. We may not be the most heavily taxed country in the world, but we are certainly the most innovative. Is there a connection here? Leaving more money in the hands of private citizens to invest in new technologies, products, or services would seem to be a national strength. One reader mentioned that the Netherlands taxes unrealized income along with a progressive tax rate approaching 50% at the top end. I’m not aware that the Netherlands is a hot bed of innovation.
Post: Billionaires, taxes and you
Link to comment from May 30, 2026
Here are some additional thoughts about direct indexing: When the direct indexing software sells losing positions, you’re paying a bid-ask spread. When the software buys similar stocks as replacements for those sold, you’re paying a bid-ask spread. These are costs not reflected in the management fee. The tax benefit you enjoy must overcome these additional expenses. When the software buys similar stocks, you’re likely introducing tracking error because those similar stocks might not be in the index. Your returns will no longer mimic the returns of the underlying index. If personal preferences lead you to filter out certain companies or sectors, you’re no longer tracking the index. You must accept that you are engaging in active management. If you happen to own the Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) instead of the S&P 500 ETF, would you (or could you) employ direct indexing? VTI holds 3,494 stocks. It would seem that an attempt to directly index this fund would be overwhelming. Maybe direct indexing by its nature, is best suited to funds tracking indexes with relatively fewer constituents, like the S&P 500.
Post: Direct Indexing Anyone?
Link to comment from May 17, 2026
Patrick, I agree with your characterization of gold as a form of money and a neutral store of value. But, as individuals, we are not yet at the point where we can use gold to purchase goods and services. For example, how would we use gold coins or bars to purchase groceries? At present, all we can do is purchase gold and store it away. If we wish to transact, we would have to sell some gold for paper dollars. If you believe that gold preserves our purchasing power, you may find this approach more appealing than a significant allocation to cash or bonds. One argument I’ve heard for purchasing gold, is to have it available to bribe border guards when attempting to flee tyranny. In this case, I would view a gold holding more as an insurance policy than a form of money.
Post: Investment Versus Speculation
Link to comment from April 4, 2026
Berkshire Hathaway’s current policy is to reinvest income rather than pay a cash dividend to shareholders. That portion of income that Berkshire uses to grow the business is reinvesting income for the benefit of shareholders who don’t have to reinvest themselves. In this sense, I would consider Berkshire an investment. When Berkshire purchases its own shares, it is not growing the business, but buoying the stock price. This is likely a sign that management is finding it difficult to identify compelling investment opportunities.
Post: Investment Versus Speculation
Link to comment from April 2, 2026
Mark, what are your thoughts on the appearance of these newly public stocks in total market index funds? If I’m not mistaken, Tesla appeared in Vanguard’s Total US Stock Market index fund before it was added to the S&P 500. Could the same situation be in store for these upcoming mega-IPOs?
Post: $3 Trillion S&P 500 Gatecrashers
Link to comment from March 21, 2026
The HumbleDollar up/down arrows remind me of the Like/Don’t Like buttons on social media web pages. The latter, I presume, feed algorithms that determine ad pricing and content feeds. Since HD does not allow advertising (thank goodness), or feed different content to different readers, I have to question the value of up/down arrows. Were some of the features of social media web pages simply copied to HD when the website was being developed? The whole purpose of HD, as I understand it, is to promote commentary so readers can shares ideas, information, and experiences. Just clicking an up or down arrow doesn’t add much to the conversation. I do have one question: How did you earn the sobriquet “DrLefty?” Are you left-handed?
Post: The “Mean Girls”/Junior High Bullies at HumbleDollar
Link to comment from January 10, 2026
I suspect that the tale of the anonymous investor who enjoyed a $70 million dollar profit from S&P 500 call options will lead a number of people to conclude that buying call options on the S&P 500 is the path to riches. But that investor was extraordinarily lucky. Consider what the media is not offering: stories about the much larger number of people who invested in S&P 500 call options and lost money. No one is interested in those stories. As Nassim Taleb warned us: don’t be “Fooled by Randomness.” Also, we know that correlation does not imply causation. Yet, Taylor Hamm seems convinced that paying $25 for a spell was responsible for her good fortune. I’ll guess that she’ll be buying many more spells in the future.
Post: Money Moments
Link to comment from December 27, 2025
One of those opportunities for spontaneous giving might include the tip jar at take-out eateries.
Post: Cash Ain’t Trash
Link to comment from December 27, 2025
Dan, thanks for mentioning the need to have smaller denominations available. If you only stockpile large denomination bills, you might find it difficult to purchase simple items in, say, a convenience store.
Post: Cash Ain’t Trash
Link to comment from December 26, 2025