I should clarify that the time of my investing in the gold ETF was after the September of 2024. I had considered taking additional profits on Wednesday but missed the opportunity.
A great article and timely. Thanks for writing. I purchased about a 5% position in a gold ETF after seeing the polls last September. I have trimmed twice since and placed the profits in TIPS. The WSJ has had an article fairly recently suggesting one should own some gold as portfolio insurance. I will probably keep my position as insurance given the current geopolitical climate.
This week’s Barron’s interestingly has a timely article on gold by Jack Hough and points out that: “Deutsche Bank recently calculated that gold has outpaced inflation by 279% over 235 years. That’s barely a half-point a year, compounded, including the recent runup. On shorter timelines, gold looks great. It has beaten the U.S. stock market over the past 20 years.
Time will tell…
In follow up on my earlier post, I have been looking for comments and insight regarding the current investment environment. Finally Barron’s has posted something. (As I posted earlier, I made a shift to international markets and a small position in gold after polls indicated there would be a change in administration last September.) From Barron’s: How Fund Managers Are Grappling With ‘Autocracy Risk’https://www.barrons.com/articles/fund-managers-grapple-autocracy-risk-846a0621?st=Zpze4K
After the polls suggested in late September that Trump would likely win the election I purchased a 5% position in a gold ETF. I also invested in Berkshire Hathaway with their large cash position and US holdings. My concern is/was what effect a change in the rule of law would have on the stock and bond markets. So far the portfolio is ahead of the US total stock market about 10% (down from 20% prior to the recent market improvement). The question is whether to take the profit on the gold or to keep it as insurance against further market turmoil after seeing the effects of the tariffs as they kick in later in the year (or years) ahead.
Also gold may have a longer term value as Barron’s 7-15-2024 noted:
Abolish the Federal Reserve? Here’s What Conservatives’ Project 2025 Would Do.
The conservative Heritage Foundation think tank's so-called Project 2025's primary recommendations for the Fed include a unitary focus on controlling inflation, winding down its balance sheet, and ending its lender-of-last-resort function. Further proposals would return the U.S. to a gold standard or abolish the Fed entirely.
I have similar concerns about defaulting on bond commitments or manipulation of COLAs on TIPS or repression of interest rates on treasuries if not outright defaulting.
Like you, my wife and I are in our early 70s. We ordered a new car and negotiated the price a month ago and are awaiting delivery. I also decided to purchase a new camera and lens set in anticipation of tariffs.
We also have a diversified portfolio with largely equity index funds in taxable account and TIPS in an IRA equivalent account. When the polls indicated a change in administration last September I did fund a 5% position in a gold ETF. When/If there is a 20%+ drop in the market I will consider moving that back into the market.
I hope that the “old-fashioned approach” to the market as you say prevails, but feel as uncomfortable now as I felt in 2009. Little has been mentioned in the financial press until recently about potential government manipulation of COLAs for TIPS or repression of interest rates on treasuries. Only the standard dogma “stay the course.” Having cash and some gold might be a good feeling.
We have a “Growth with Income“ portfolio per Fidelity with enough cash and TIPS to last to age 95+ if no government manipulation of COLA or repression of rates or interest payments. (That is a concern although see no good alternative.). After polls in September indicated a change in presidential leadership I added a 5% position in a gold ETF. I will consider moving that position into the market if a 20% drop in the market depending on global stability.
Naturally health would be near the top of anyone’s list of concerns with the risk of dementia with aging. While perhaps partially covered by concern of the “state of the world.” What I am surprised is the relative lack of concern regarding fundamental changes in laws related to investment products and the importance to our investments of maintaining the rule of law.
The WSJ has had articles about the potential for interest rate “repression” for example as a way to reduce federal budget expense. Today the WSJ reports “Uncertainty has dented the municipal-bond market after a move to strip munis of their tax-exempt status was proposed by the House Budget Committee.” Should owners of TIPS be concerned that the CPI be manipulated as another means to reduce the federal budget?
I have been amazed with the standard dogma advising investors not to make changes in their investments last year anticipating the change in administration. For example, a position in gold was a reasonable investment when polls in late September showed a new administration.
Excellent work! Major points include “because the technology companies that dominate the domestic market are far larger and far more profitable than their international peers.” and factors related to economic growth in foreign countries and productivity. Whether it should or not, I feel better now with having only 20% of stock in foreign markets.
Comments
I should clarify that the time of my investing in the gold ETF was after the September of 2024. I had considered taking additional profits on Wednesday but missed the opportunity.
Post: The Playground Indicator
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
A great article and timely. Thanks for writing. I purchased about a 5% position in a gold ETF after seeing the polls last September. I have trimmed twice since and placed the profits in TIPS. The WSJ has had an article fairly recently suggesting one should own some gold as portfolio insurance. I will probably keep my position as insurance given the current geopolitical climate. This week’s Barron’s interestingly has a timely article on gold by Jack Hough and points out that: “Deutsche Bank recently calculated that gold has outpaced inflation by 279% over 235 years. That’s barely a half-point a year, compounded, including the recent runup. On shorter timelines, gold looks great. It has beaten the U.S. stock market over the past 20 years. Time will tell…
Post: The Playground Indicator
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
In follow up on my earlier post, I have been looking for comments and insight regarding the current investment environment. Finally Barron’s has posted something. (As I posted earlier, I made a shift to international markets and a small position in gold after polls indicated there would be a change in administration last September.) From Barron’s: How Fund Managers Are Grappling With ‘Autocracy Risk’ https://www.barrons.com/articles/fund-managers-grapple-autocracy-risk-846a0621?st=Zpze4K
Post: Ch-Ch-Changes?
Link to comment from May 14, 2025
After the polls suggested in late September that Trump would likely win the election I purchased a 5% position in a gold ETF. I also invested in Berkshire Hathaway with their large cash position and US holdings. My concern is/was what effect a change in the rule of law would have on the stock and bond markets. So far the portfolio is ahead of the US total stock market about 10% (down from 20% prior to the recent market improvement). The question is whether to take the profit on the gold or to keep it as insurance against further market turmoil after seeing the effects of the tariffs as they kick in later in the year (or years) ahead. Also gold may have a longer term value as Barron’s 7-15-2024 noted: Abolish the Federal Reserve? Here’s What Conservatives’ Project 2025 Would Do. The conservative Heritage Foundation think tank's so-called Project 2025's primary recommendations for the Fed include a unitary focus on controlling inflation, winding down its balance sheet, and ending its lender-of-last-resort function. Further proposals would return the U.S. to a gold standard or abolish the Fed entirely.
Post: Ch-Ch-Changes?
Link to comment from May 10, 2025
I have similar concerns about defaulting on bond commitments or manipulation of COLAs on TIPS or repression of interest rates on treasuries if not outright defaulting.
Post: Tariffs and our retirement assets
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
Like you, my wife and I are in our early 70s. We ordered a new car and negotiated the price a month ago and are awaiting delivery. I also decided to purchase a new camera and lens set in anticipation of tariffs. We also have a diversified portfolio with largely equity index funds in taxable account and TIPS in an IRA equivalent account. When the polls indicated a change in administration last September I did fund a 5% position in a gold ETF. When/If there is a 20%+ drop in the market I will consider moving that back into the market. I hope that the “old-fashioned approach” to the market as you say prevails, but feel as uncomfortable now as I felt in 2009. Little has been mentioned in the financial press until recently about potential government manipulation of COLAs for TIPS or repression of interest rates on treasuries. Only the standard dogma “stay the course.” Having cash and some gold might be a good feeling.
Post: Finding Your Balance
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
We have a “Growth with Income“ portfolio per Fidelity with enough cash and TIPS to last to age 95+ if no government manipulation of COLA or repression of rates or interest payments. (That is a concern although see no good alternative.). After polls in September indicated a change in presidential leadership I added a 5% position in a gold ETF. I will consider moving that position into the market if a 20% drop in the market depending on global stability.
Post: Tariffs and our retirement assets
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
Post: How’s Your Crystal Ball?
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
Naturally health would be near the top of anyone’s list of concerns with the risk of dementia with aging. While perhaps partially covered by concern of the “state of the world.” What I am surprised is the relative lack of concern regarding fundamental changes in laws related to investment products and the importance to our investments of maintaining the rule of law. The WSJ has had articles about the potential for interest rate “repression” for example as a way to reduce federal budget expense. Today the WSJ reports “Uncertainty has dented the municipal-bond market after a move to strip munis of their tax-exempt status was proposed by the House Budget Committee.” Should owners of TIPS be concerned that the CPI be manipulated as another means to reduce the federal budget? I have been amazed with the standard dogma advising investors not to make changes in their investments last year anticipating the change in administration. For example, a position in gold was a reasonable investment when polls in late September showed a new administration.
Post: What Worries You?
Link to comment from March 21, 2025
Excellent work! Major points include “because the technology companies that dominate the domestic market are far larger and far more profitable than their international peers.” and factors related to economic growth in foreign countries and productivity. Whether it should or not, I feel better now with having only 20% of stock in foreign markets.
Post: Look Both Ways
Link to comment from January 12, 2025