AUTHOR: Mark Gardner on 6/4/2025 FIRST: DAN SMITH on 6/4 | RECENT: bbbobbins on 8/15
Comments
Yes. Prediction is hard and I look skeptically at things like P/E and CAPE that can somehow magically tell us to be afraid or greedy. This is a nice article from Fisher Investments on this topic.
There are opportunities, even if the inevitable bear market has us gnashing our teeth:
If you’ve planned well, you have income sources you can rely on—and that kind of financial stability lets you sleep at night. As Bill Bernstein once wryly noted, “count your TIPS to sleep.”
Downturns offer excellent windows of opportunity: Roth conversions. Doing conversions then—while valuations are depressed—lets you lock in lower tax bases. Then when the market recovers, those gains grow tax‑free, and you won’t face Required Minimum Distributions on those converted amounts.
I would withdraw the same amount as last year and forgo the inflation adjustment until the market recovers. Of course, this assumes one has a healthy dose of treasuries as buffer assets for emergencies.
The 4% "rule" is a fictional rule created by the financial advisory/services industry. Bill Bengen published a paper with data (he just published an update) and didn't ever say it's a rule for us to follow. It's more of a strategy amongst many that you can study for securing a drama free retirement and avoid relying on family or state as you age for your longevity expenses.
Very good analysis. In retirement, I first focus on expenses: essentials (food, insurance, taxes, etc.), healthcare, and then lifestyle items like travel or gifts. I match my essential expenses with inflation-protected income sources—Social Security, I-Bonds, TIPS, and so on. That way, I have a clear picture of the “rest of the portfolio,” which I can use more flexibly for lifestyle choices depending on market returns. The one area that still worries me is age-related shocks, like long-term care. My only fallback plan there is tapping home equity.
“It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all.” - J.K.Rowling Fun post and comments from folks. Thank you.
I looked at two Arkansas stations—KUAF and KASU—as test cases. KUAF has warned it could lose local journalism, community reporting, and even emergency broadcasts. KASU may lose its only full-time staff member. I’m sure similar situations are unfolding in other communities people here care about. What I’m watching for now is PBS’s broader strategy. Will it simply double down on the programs that bring in donations and underwriting, or will it take a more thoughtful approach in deciding what to preserve? That distinction will make the difference in whether I choose to direct my donation to them.
I don't know if the Congress of tomorrow will have the same motivations as ones from the past when it comes to SS. The richest amongst us casually label this program as a Ponzi scheme and fund elections on this premise.
As a follow-up, I wanted to share an update. My intuition proved correct, and I learned this morning that I’ve lost my job. I’m deeply grateful for all the comments and support from this community. Your insights helped us prepare far better for this moment than I otherwise would have.
Comments
Yes. Prediction is hard and I look skeptically at things like P/E and CAPE that can somehow magically tell us to be afraid or greedy. This is a nice article from Fisher Investments on this topic.
Post: Is The Stock Market Overvalued?
Link to comment from October 22, 2025
There are opportunities, even if the inevitable bear market has us gnashing our teeth:
Post: The Gnashing of Teeth
Link to comment from September 21, 2025
Thank you Elaine for this update. May God give you peace during this difficult time. Thank you Jonathan for everything you did with HumbleDollar.
Post: Jonathan and website update
Link to comment from September 20, 2025
I would withdraw the same amount as last year and forgo the inflation adjustment until the market recovers. Of course, this assumes one has a healthy dose of treasuries as buffer assets for emergencies.
Post: Are you actually using the 4% rule?
Link to comment from September 18, 2025
The 4% "rule" is a fictional rule created by the financial advisory/services industry. Bill Bengen published a paper with data (he just published an update) and didn't ever say it's a rule for us to follow. It's more of a strategy amongst many that you can study for securing a drama free retirement and avoid relying on family or state as you age for your longevity expenses.
Post: Are you actually using the 4% rule?
Link to comment from September 17, 2025
Very good analysis. In retirement, I first focus on expenses: essentials (food, insurance, taxes, etc.), healthcare, and then lifestyle items like travel or gifts. I match my essential expenses with inflation-protected income sources—Social Security, I-Bonds, TIPS, and so on. That way, I have a clear picture of the “rest of the portfolio,” which I can use more flexibly for lifestyle choices depending on market returns. The one area that still worries me is age-related shocks, like long-term care. My only fallback plan there is tapping home equity.
Post: There is no magic number – and it sure isn’t $1 million
Link to comment from September 11, 2025
“It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all.” - J.K.Rowling Fun post and comments from folks. Thank you.
Post: How I Failed My Way to Financial Freedom
Link to comment from September 10, 2025
I looked at two Arkansas stations—KUAF and KASU—as test cases. KUAF has warned it could lose local journalism, community reporting, and even emergency broadcasts. KASU may lose its only full-time staff member. I’m sure similar situations are unfolding in other communities people here care about. What I’m watching for now is PBS’s broader strategy. Will it simply double down on the programs that bring in donations and underwriting, or will it take a more thoughtful approach in deciding what to preserve? That distinction will make the difference in whether I choose to direct my donation to them.
Post: Big Beautiful Bill Response
Link to comment from September 7, 2025
I don't know if the Congress of tomorrow will have the same motivations as ones from the past when it comes to SS. The richest amongst us casually label this program as a Ponzi scheme and fund elections on this premise.
Post: Dealing with a reduction in Social Security benefits. Is there a backup plan?
Link to comment from August 29, 2025
As a follow-up, I wanted to share an update. My intuition proved correct, and I learned this morning that I’ve lost my job. I’m deeply grateful for all the comments and support from this community. Your insights helped us prepare far better for this moment than I otherwise would have.
Post: When the Spreadsheet Gets Real
Link to comment from August 14, 2025