A good observation and I would suggest that in the US (as alluded to in other comments in this thread) we should be cautious relying solely on S&P 500 performance, even though there has been significant outperformance the past decade. Over a longer time horizon, the S&P500 has experienced long periods underperforming other equity classes. The link included at the bottom is for a color-coded chart from the Paul Merriman Foundation which illustrates graphically the annual performance of the following major asset classes over the past 100 years: Small Cap Blend (green)
Small Cap Value (cyan)
Large Cap Blend (S&P 500) (red)
Large Cap Value (pink) One can see that being diversified across these asset classes can help protect against long periods of S&P 500 underperformance e.g. 2000-2013. The 'four fund' colored yellow represents the performance of the 4 asset classes listed above when combined in equal measure. The chart is for US Index Funds and International can provide additional diversification. Over the past 50 years the S&P 500 has a CAGR of 10.9%, the 4-fund by comparison has a CAGR 12.2% (numbers through 2024).
https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/(K)_Quilt_Charts_(1928-2024)_-_2024_Returns_(1).pdf
One thought I had, which comes from the perspective of only been familiar with this site and Jonathan’s writings for a couple of years, is to have a section on the front page of the website called ‘Jonathan’s Corner’ (or similar) this could be used to republish a piece once a week from his catalogue of work. This could be complementary to Adam’s weekly piece or a standalone mid-week piece. I miss the weekly e-mail with Jonathan’s latest article. (I also greatly enjoy Adam’s weekly articles and the work of many others to keep Humble Dollar vibrant). From what I have read previously I believe most of Jonathan’s work will stand the test of time. Keeping his work in the foreground will help new readers understand the genesis/mission Jonathan intended for Humble Dollar and would hopefully feel that he is still with us in spirit. I understand we can research articles previous articles but I think keeping his work up front and central in a curated fashion would be meaningful. Of course only do this if Jonathan’s family approves.
I agree selection of major and career path should be priority #1. This lets you know if undergrad is only step 1 of a longer education career or the major chosen simply will not provide a return on investment (roi) versus attending a quality in state school, or the career path and prestigious school are simply not a fit. I think understanding long term plan on location is also important. For example, a degree at prestigious NYC college may not have same value if the grandchild's plan is to move to Oregon. But if the plan is to work on Wall St, the prestige and built in network could have tremendous value. Extreme example but it gets the message across. I understand that there are likely more unknowns than knowns at this point when dealing with an 18 year old but the $92k a year price tag I think reasonably demands those questions be asked. Choose a more cost effective and quality in state university and I think this offers more flexibility to choose major, or wait to choose major, or choose a major that on face value may not be glamorous or provide an roi, but may be the calling of the grandchild. From my personal experience, my daughter went to an out of state prestigious university which was $80k a year in 2013 dollars. (Note that there were many expenses that the $80k did not cover, so budget accordingly). She was studying financial economics and after year one announced she was changing major to fine art (announcement came while I was dropping her off at airport to return to school after Thanksgiving Holiday! perfect timing). I asked that she evaluate the roi of studying art in-state versus out-of-state and we could discuss again a Christmas. She ended up choosing to double major. 8 years after graduating she still works/lives in the city where she studied and having a degree from the university has helped her career path. She doesn’t use the fine art in her day to day career but I am pleased she got to do this as part of her education and fulfill a passion for her. Before committing to the university I also offered to pay for post grad at a prestigious college if she went in-state for undergrad, which she declined. Several years after graduating she considered post grad but this would be her’s to fund. She chose not to go back to school and her career is advancing nicely. Was it all worth it? I think on balance yes. She worked extremely hard to achieve the academics required to be accepted at the university and as a parent you want to encourage/support excellence, especially when you see friends struggle to get their kids to do homework or simply study for a test. Those four years were tough financially for mum and dad as the 529 plan we had carefully funded over the years only covered a fraction of the costs and our daughter was required to take out some federal loans so she had skin in the game and to get the numbers to work. Funding this commitment created significant financial stress for us and should also be considered as part of the evaluation for mum and dad and not be underestimated. Also worth noting our daughter is an only child, if we had multiple children it is unlikely we could have made the $ numbers work.
This is an important subject that reappears periodically. I personally have a diversified portfolio of index funds and a 50:50 mix stocks and bonds, because at my age I am concerned about sequence of return risks and have a plan that can weather a prolonged winter in the stock market. Specifically on the notion of “index funds creating a bubble” Ben Carlson wrote a complimentary article in 2019. The article indicates that the indexing naysayers had the knives out about index funds creating a bubble back in the 1990’s and I understand from reading elsewhere from the inception of index funds. Ben’s article goes into detail debunking this myth. Here is link to the article: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/debunking-the-silly-passive-is-a-bubble-myth/
And then there are the PE Zombie funds which I am sure they will be eager to offload onto unsuspecting 401k account holders. I wonder if protections will be put in place (I suspect not)? Per AI: “Private equity "zombie funds" are investment vehicles that have exceeded their typical 10-year lifespan because they cannot profitably sell their remaining assets. These funds, which continue to collect management fees, are stuck with poorly performing "zombie companies" that are unable to be sold, even at a discount. This situation can trap capital, drain returns for investors like pension funds, and create regulatory risk for fund managers.”I assume large institutions/endowments etc. get to see behind the curtains before investing in PE. Average Joe in his/her 401k not so much. Buyer beware!
I read Ben’s newsletter e-mail most days. I have noticed lately he uses the dramatic headlines regarding AI Bubble, is this the top of the market etc. I assume these headlines are click bait and help draw a larger audience? However, the underlying message in his articles is usually to stay the course, dollar cost average, you can’t time the market. He is also in his early 40’s and I think generally his perspective is wise beyond his years but at the same time also that of someone in their 40’s. No harm in that, but sequence of return risks do not get mentioned very much. That being said, in conjunction with the AI Bubble theme in various articles he has also pointed out that if individuals are overly concerned that the Bubble Bursting would have a serious impact on their retirement plans, then maybe now is a good time to evaluate individual risk tolerance and if appropriate rebalance the portfolio e.g. from 70:30 to 60:40 or 50:50 or to a level that allows one to sleep at night. Maybe portfolios have become imbalanced because the stock market has performed so well in recent years. Rebalancing is good financial planning and not necessarily timing the market. I think information from good/reliable sources helps keep me on track. Otherwise I agree with you there is a lot of noise out there and easy to be influenced to stray from staying the course.
In his career Roger Federer won 54% of the points he played (or lost 46%) but won 80% of his matches. He mastered the art of not making mistakes at critical times.
Steve, thank you for replying to my comment. I did not take your comments as overly negative. I am not necessarily cheerleading one ETF vs another but was interested in hearing your/another opinion on AVUS which, as mentioned in my comment, is the Paul Merriman Foundation ETF recommendation for SCV. I think it is a good idea to obtain information/opinions from different sources. The stock component of my portfolio is a combination of large, small, growth and value ETF’s utilizing low cost index funds. The SCV component is there for diversification and not necessarily to beat the market, but to be happy with what the market gives over time. Regards Grant
Interesting comment on AVUV which is recommended as best in class 2025 ETF for small cap value by Paul Merriman Foundation. They go through a pretty exhaustive evaluation to arrive at their recommendations, link to their video presentation below. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YGIUrs2Vsmc
A couple to add to the list: PaulMerriman.com which contains a wealth of information based on historical market data. The foundation places an emphasis on education and ‘staying the course’. awealthofcommonsense.com I enjoy because Ben Carlson, like Jonathan Clemens, is a truth teller and he also brings a younger perspective.
Comments
A good observation and I would suggest that in the US (as alluded to in other comments in this thread) we should be cautious relying solely on S&P 500 performance, even though there has been significant outperformance the past decade. Over a longer time horizon, the S&P500 has experienced long periods underperforming other equity classes. The link included at the bottom is for a color-coded chart from the Paul Merriman Foundation which illustrates graphically the annual performance of the following major asset classes over the past 100 years: Small Cap Blend (green) Small Cap Value (cyan) Large Cap Blend (S&P 500) (red) Large Cap Value (pink) One can see that being diversified across these asset classes can help protect against long periods of S&P 500 underperformance e.g. 2000-2013. The 'four fund' colored yellow represents the performance of the 4 asset classes listed above when combined in equal measure. The chart is for US Index Funds and International can provide additional diversification. Over the past 50 years the S&P 500 has a CAGR of 10.9%, the 4-fund by comparison has a CAGR 12.2% (numbers through 2024). https://irp.cdn-website.com/6b78c197/files/uploaded/(K)_Quilt_Charts_(1928-2024)_-_2024_Returns_(1).pdf
Post: Real vs. Imaginary Returns – Part I
Link to comment from January 8, 2026
One thought I had, which comes from the perspective of only been familiar with this site and Jonathan’s writings for a couple of years, is to have a section on the front page of the website called ‘Jonathan’s Corner’ (or similar) this could be used to republish a piece once a week from his catalogue of work. This could be complementary to Adam’s weekly piece or a standalone mid-week piece. I miss the weekly e-mail with Jonathan’s latest article. (I also greatly enjoy Adam’s weekly articles and the work of many others to keep Humble Dollar vibrant). From what I have read previously I believe most of Jonathan’s work will stand the test of time. Keeping his work in the foreground will help new readers understand the genesis/mission Jonathan intended for Humble Dollar and would hopefully feel that he is still with us in spirit. I understand we can research articles previous articles but I think keeping his work up front and central in a curated fashion would be meaningful. Of course only do this if Jonathan’s family approves.
Post: My Contact Info
Link to comment from December 11, 2025
I agree selection of major and career path should be priority #1. This lets you know if undergrad is only step 1 of a longer education career or the major chosen simply will not provide a return on investment (roi) versus attending a quality in state school, or the career path and prestigious school are simply not a fit. I think understanding long term plan on location is also important. For example, a degree at prestigious NYC college may not have same value if the grandchild's plan is to move to Oregon. But if the plan is to work on Wall St, the prestige and built in network could have tremendous value. Extreme example but it gets the message across. I understand that there are likely more unknowns than knowns at this point when dealing with an 18 year old but the $92k a year price tag I think reasonably demands those questions be asked. Choose a more cost effective and quality in state university and I think this offers more flexibility to choose major, or wait to choose major, or choose a major that on face value may not be glamorous or provide an roi, but may be the calling of the grandchild. From my personal experience, my daughter went to an out of state prestigious university which was $80k a year in 2013 dollars. (Note that there were many expenses that the $80k did not cover, so budget accordingly). She was studying financial economics and after year one announced she was changing major to fine art (announcement came while I was dropping her off at airport to return to school after Thanksgiving Holiday! perfect timing). I asked that she evaluate the roi of studying art in-state versus out-of-state and we could discuss again a Christmas. She ended up choosing to double major. 8 years after graduating she still works/lives in the city where she studied and having a degree from the university has helped her career path. She doesn’t use the fine art in her day to day career but I am pleased she got to do this as part of her education and fulfill a passion for her. Before committing to the university I also offered to pay for post grad at a prestigious college if she went in-state for undergrad, which she declined. Several years after graduating she considered post grad but this would be her’s to fund. She chose not to go back to school and her career is advancing nicely. Was it all worth it? I think on balance yes. She worked extremely hard to achieve the academics required to be accepted at the university and as a parent you want to encourage/support excellence, especially when you see friends struggle to get their kids to do homework or simply study for a test. Those four years were tough financially for mum and dad as the 529 plan we had carefully funded over the years only covered a fraction of the costs and our daughter was required to take out some federal loans so she had skin in the game and to get the numbers to work. Funding this commitment created significant financial stress for us and should also be considered as part of the evaluation for mum and dad and not be underestimated. Also worth noting our daughter is an only child, if we had multiple children it is unlikely we could have made the $ numbers work.
Post: $92,000 a year is quite an investment. The ROI is real, but maybe not.
Link to comment from December 11, 2025
This is an important subject that reappears periodically. I personally have a diversified portfolio of index funds and a 50:50 mix stocks and bonds, because at my age I am concerned about sequence of return risks and have a plan that can weather a prolonged winter in the stock market. Specifically on the notion of “index funds creating a bubble” Ben Carlson wrote a complimentary article in 2019. The article indicates that the indexing naysayers had the knives out about index funds creating a bubble back in the 1990’s and I understand from reading elsewhere from the inception of index funds. Ben’s article goes into detail debunking this myth. Here is link to the article: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/debunking-the-silly-passive-is-a-bubble-myth/
Post: Index Fund Bubble
Link to comment from December 6, 2025
And then there are the PE Zombie funds which I am sure they will be eager to offload onto unsuspecting 401k account holders. I wonder if protections will be put in place (I suspect not)? Per AI: “Private equity "zombie funds" are investment vehicles that have exceeded their typical 10-year lifespan because they cannot profitably sell their remaining assets. These funds, which continue to collect management fees, are stuck with poorly performing "zombie companies" that are unable to be sold, even at a discount. This situation can trap capital, drain returns for investors like pension funds, and create regulatory risk for fund managers.” I assume large institutions/endowments etc. get to see behind the curtains before investing in PE. Average Joe in his/her 401k not so much. Buyer beware!
Post: Private Equity Traps
Link to comment from November 15, 2025
I read Ben’s newsletter e-mail most days. I have noticed lately he uses the dramatic headlines regarding AI Bubble, is this the top of the market etc. I assume these headlines are click bait and help draw a larger audience? However, the underlying message in his articles is usually to stay the course, dollar cost average, you can’t time the market. He is also in his early 40’s and I think generally his perspective is wise beyond his years but at the same time also that of someone in their 40’s. No harm in that, but sequence of return risks do not get mentioned very much. That being said, in conjunction with the AI Bubble theme in various articles he has also pointed out that if individuals are overly concerned that the Bubble Bursting would have a serious impact on their retirement plans, then maybe now is a good time to evaluate individual risk tolerance and if appropriate rebalance the portfolio e.g. from 70:30 to 60:40 or 50:50 or to a level that allows one to sleep at night. Maybe portfolios have become imbalanced because the stock market has performed so well in recent years. Rebalancing is good financial planning and not necessarily timing the market. I think information from good/reliable sources helps keep me on track. Otherwise I agree with you there is a lot of noise out there and easy to be influenced to stray from staying the course.
Post: Thinking long term – with all this noise?
Link to comment from October 15, 2025
In his career Roger Federer won 54% of the points he played (or lost 46%) but won 80% of his matches. He mastered the art of not making mistakes at critical times.
Post: How Not To Invest
Link to comment from October 11, 2025
Steve, thank you for replying to my comment. I did not take your comments as overly negative. I am not necessarily cheerleading one ETF vs another but was interested in hearing your/another opinion on AVUS which, as mentioned in my comment, is the Paul Merriman Foundation ETF recommendation for SCV. I think it is a good idea to obtain information/opinions from different sources. The stock component of my portfolio is a combination of large, small, growth and value ETF’s utilizing low cost index funds. The SCV component is there for diversification and not necessarily to beat the market, but to be happy with what the market gives over time. Regards Grant
Post: Active ETFs: Get Ready ‘Cause Here They Come
Link to comment from March 19, 2025
Interesting comment on AVUV which is recommended as best in class 2025 ETF for small cap value by Paul Merriman Foundation. They go through a pretty exhaustive evaluation to arrive at their recommendations, link to their video presentation below. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YGIUrs2Vsmc
Post: Active ETFs: Get Ready ‘Cause Here They Come
Link to comment from March 18, 2025
A couple to add to the list: PaulMerriman.com which contains a wealth of information based on historical market data. The foundation places an emphasis on education and ‘staying the course’. awealthofcommonsense.com I enjoy because Ben Carlson, like Jonathan Clemens, is a truth teller and he also brings a younger perspective.
Post: My Favorite Websites
Link to comment from March 16, 2025