John McHugh

Comments:

• On the threshold of retirement I can't not think about 20-year spans where stocks went nowhere after delivering big hits. Twenty years (not 30) is about how long my portfolio must last. Still, I resist the urge to overweight bonds too much for exactly reasons stated. Plus a new concern - the inflation hedge stocks may represent. This isn't easy, but it beats the alternative and is mostly about good problems to have.

  Post: Looking Long

  Link to comment from December 18, 2021

• I suspect the Fed is just as clueless about what's happening and what to do as all the rest of us, and is just making it up as they go along. I'm also guessing all the policy makers are equally clueless. It's a big experiment and we are its subjects.

  Post: Fed Up

  Link to comment from November 14, 2021

• What is MAGI? I know, read the article - HOWEVER: This may sound silly, but after parsing this and a few other iems on the web includng IRS pubs I still don't know how to calculate MAGI. Why? I suspect the authors may be "cursed by knowledge" of what seems the first and most essential step: Is the MAGI figure obtained before or after subtracting the standard or itemized deduction(s)? Right now I only know my MAGI give or take $12,550 (the standard deduction).

  Post: Triggering IRMAA

  Link to comment from October 31, 2021

• Hmm. I'm on the threshold of a 20-ish year retirement, not 30 years. That's not long enough to assume time will cure the ravages a big bad stock bear may inflict. So my portfolio is 50/50 stock index funds and two-year treasuries. Mr. Clements pointed out recently that while bonds no longer provide income they still let you keep spending when the big bad stock bear inevitably arrives. And two-year notes can't hurt you that much. The big question is whether the current interest rate suppression can and will persist, and whether persistent high inflation aggravates that into a truly nightmare scenario. Managing one of those is plausible, but both? For all the stock market ebullience right now this a very challenging time for people in situations as mine.

  Post: No Bonds for Me

  Link to comment from October 30, 2021

• So much for all of "ESG" blather from VG. Loudly announcing the firm has adopted a "politically correct" hard-left public policy stance apparently does not ensure it plays straight with its own employees. I'm gradually moving assets out of VG and into a shop that's mostly avoided political theater.

  Post: Promises Broken

  Link to comment from October 10, 2021

• The indivuals I know who took it at 62 did so for one of two reasons:

  1. They had jobs that were beating the heck out of them physically.
  2. They were ignorant/short-sighted/foolish.
  I hate to be so ungenerous with those No. 2s, but - <shrug>. The number of people I know who waited until 70 is shockingly low, and they are almost all high net-worth individuals who don't have to think twice about it. Reinforces the bit here about,"Worse yet, they don’t know about it, and no one is telling them..."

  Post: Why Retire at 65?

  Link to comment from October 9, 2021

• I recall a quality sci-fi novel, maybe Heinlein but I'm not sure, with the observation, "Every planet has something called coffee but none are the same." Presumably all are a habit-forming mild stimulant. Presumably, whatever it is, the habituated people on each planet savor their morning cuppa just as much as those on the others. Linked to that is another pop- culture reference, an exchange between (middle class) Morgan Freeman and (rich guy) Jack Nicholson in The Bucket List film. Freeman refers to the "Chock Full Of Nuts" coffee brand's slogan, "Better coffee a millionaire's money can't buy," and Nicholson responds, "I wouldn't bet on that." I might bet on it* in this sense: It may not matter much which brand one drinks or how much it costs, because before long they become all the same, just the morning cuppa that you look forward to and often sip on much of the day. I always liked the quirky the Chock Full O' Nuts slogan and label design, so that's what I drink. When I find myself sipping and enjoying fancy stuff away from home I always enjoy it, but realize if I started using it at home within a couple week it would quicly become just the morning cuppa I look forward to, but no more or less than "regular." *There may be some poor-quality threshold to which the above does not apply. Related, on this planet roasted beans get rancid after a few months and the product becomes undrinkable.

  Post: Clouds in My Coffee

  Link to comment from October 2, 2021

• One exception to maxing-out tax-deferred contributions in the last few years of employment is accumulating cash for a Social Security "bridge" fund that lets you delay claiming until age 70. Related, on a separate track, I've also noted recommendations to spend-down tax-deferred accounts rather than cash during those bridge years, after you've stopped working and don't have much taxable income. However, I am also planning some big Roth conversions in those years, which will raise my taxable income and so be in "competition" with tax-deferred distributions for "space" below the next-highest tax bracket. It's complicated! But good problems to have. Having more cash available helps.

  Post: On Your Way Out

  Link to comment from September 25, 2021

• I did not find that job until 40, and then it changed my life.

  Post: More Than a Job

  Link to comment from September 19, 2021

• And - Get off my lawn kid! Just kidding; good one. :-)

  Post: Quinn’s Commands

  Link to comment from August 29, 2021