I like Ben Carlson. I don't listen to his podcast but I read his blog on occasion. He lays out choices for investing during a "market bubble" in the article below and says that for himself, "I’m doing nothing with my portfolio. I’m not making any changes." How Do You Invest During a Bubble? - A Wealth of Common SenseThe Jeremy Grantham (market bubble expert) quotes in that article sounding the alarm on the current bubble we're in, and the realization these quotes were made in January 2021, lend further proof that ignoring the noise and sticking to your guns can be quite profitable.
Only during massive market crashes or prolonged recessions will we be free of these types of articles, warning of impending doom and how "the next 10 years will see much lower returns." The only answer is to ignore these articles and rebalance according to your investment plan.
"Inflation makes those wonderful investment returns seem smaller, and they are, in real dollars. With 3.0% inflation the long-term average, annual real return for the S&P 500 is about 4.35%"That is not correct.https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp"Since 1957, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.54%, but when adjusted for inflation, the real return drops to 6.68%" AI Overview for "annual real return for sp500"
"The S&P 500's annual real return, accounting for inflation, is approximately 6.5% to 6.7% when looking at long-term historical averages, though it can vary depending on the specific time period and data source. For example, since April 1957, the real return has been around 6.5%, while a 50-year average ending in August 2025 was about 8.0%"
I understand my perspective may be colored by my age and perhaps it will change when I shift from accumulation to spending. Nonetheless, I can't quite wrap my head around taking "no risk" with my bonds. Especially if one combines this advice with keeping 3-5 years of cash to prepare for market downturns. It is this cash pile where I feel these "no risk" bonds belong, not the only bonds you own. I understand if you want to stop playing the game because you've already won. Maybe massively overweighting treasuries and short-term durations will help you sleep better at night. But this just strikes me as a bit too conservative for my liking.
I agree with your take but I would only add that we don't know what future capital gains rates will be. But for myself, the more important limitation of giving the child money to invest in stocks within a taxable account - is that these assets could grow quite large by the time college rolls around. Taxable assets in the child's name greatly affect financial aid. With that in mind, a tax advantaged account seems the best for building a child's financial assets. This is where the Trump accounts could shine but I think I still prefer 529s due to the 35K of unused funds that can be rolled to a Roth in the child's name after college. I also plan on opening a Roth for my child when they get a part time job.
Comments
Thanks! Glad it resonated with you as well.
Post: Thinking long term – with all this noise?
Link to comment from October 16, 2025
I like Ben Carlson. I don't listen to his podcast but I read his blog on occasion. He lays out choices for investing during a "market bubble" in the article below and says that for himself, "I’m doing nothing with my portfolio. I’m not making any changes." How Do You Invest During a Bubble? - A Wealth of Common Sense The Jeremy Grantham (market bubble expert) quotes in that article sounding the alarm on the current bubble we're in, and the realization these quotes were made in January 2021, lend further proof that ignoring the noise and sticking to your guns can be quite profitable.
Post: Thinking long term – with all this noise?
Link to comment from October 15, 2025
Only during massive market crashes or prolonged recessions will we be free of these types of articles, warning of impending doom and how "the next 10 years will see much lower returns." The only answer is to ignore these articles and rebalance according to your investment plan.
Post: That Dumb Stock Market
Link to comment from October 13, 2025
I don't remember if I commented or merely thought you should put everything back in. But either way, I told you so you big dummy.
Post: Told Ya So Big Dummy
Link to comment from September 27, 2025
"Inflation makes those wonderful investment returns seem smaller, and they are, in real dollars. With 3.0% inflation the long-term average, annual real return for the S&P 500 is about 4.35%" That is not correct. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp "Since 1957, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.54%, but when adjusted for inflation, the real return drops to 6.68%" AI Overview for "annual real return for sp500" "The S&P 500's annual real return, accounting for inflation, is approximately 6.5% to 6.7% when looking at long-term historical averages, though it can vary depending on the specific time period and data source. For example, since April 1957, the real return has been around 6.5%, while a 50-year average ending in August 2025 was about 8.0%"
Post: Unhealthy Inflation Expectations?
Link to comment from September 23, 2025
I understand my perspective may be colored by my age and perhaps it will change when I shift from accumulation to spending. Nonetheless, I can't quite wrap my head around taking "no risk" with my bonds. Especially if one combines this advice with keeping 3-5 years of cash to prepare for market downturns. It is this cash pile where I feel these "no risk" bonds belong, not the only bonds you own. I understand if you want to stop playing the game because you've already won. Maybe massively overweighting treasuries and short-term durations will help you sleep better at night. But this just strikes me as a bit too conservative for my liking.
Post: Best Bond Funds for Your Portfolio: Treasurys, Corporates, and Municipals Explained
Link to comment from September 21, 2025
Even better! (comment corrected)
Post: Trump Accounts
Link to comment from August 18, 2025
I agree with your take but I would only add that we don't know what future capital gains rates will be. But for myself, the more important limitation of giving the child money to invest in stocks within a taxable account - is that these assets could grow quite large by the time college rolls around. Taxable assets in the child's name greatly affect financial aid. With that in mind, a tax advantaged account seems the best for building a child's financial assets. This is where the Trump accounts could shine but I think I still prefer 529s due to the 35K of unused funds that can be rolled to a Roth in the child's name after college. I also plan on opening a Roth for my child when they get a part time job.
Post: Trump Accounts
Link to comment from August 18, 2025
Great idea but might I suggest splitting your frugality funds between crypto and online sports gambling.
Post: Extreme Frugality: It Better be Fun
Link to comment from June 25, 2025
Just curious. How much as a percentage of investible assets do you think folks should hold in Bitcoin?
Post: Go for the Gold?
Link to comment from May 10, 2025