Adam M. Grossman

COULD SOMETHING like the Great Depression happen again? During that unpleasant episode, the stock market dropped 90%, unemployment rose to 25% and gross domestic product fell 30%. In making a financial plan, is this a scenario we should worry about?
While no one can predict the future, it’s worth taking a closer look at one key variable: the Federal Reserve. Today, the Fed has a reputation for helping smooth out economic cycles. But those who worry about Depression-like scenarios point out how powerless the Fed was to prevent the collapse that occurred in the 1920s and 30s.

DIVIDENDS ARE a seemingly mundane topic. But like many areas of personal finance, it’s one that still generates debate. The most common question: All else being equal, if one stock pays a dividend and another doesn’t, shouldn’t an investor prefer the one that pays the dividend? We’ll examine this question, and then broaden the lens to look at dividend strategies more generally.
To better understand how dividends work, let’s look at Procter & Gamble.

MONEY MANAGERS Raj Rajaratnam and Joel Greenblatt share a number of similarities. They’re almost exactly the same age. Both received business degrees from the University of Pennsylvania, and both started well-known hedge funds. But the similarities end there.
During the 10 years that Greenblatt operated his fund, Gotham Capital, it delivered returns averaging 50% a year, versus 10% for the S&P 500. Thanks to his success, Greenblatt retired from full-time work in 1994 at age 37.

MARKET OBSERVERS have been predicting a recession for the past two years. Why? They’ve pointed to what’s known as an inverted yield curve, when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates. Historically, this has been a bad omen for the economy. The yield curve has been inverted since 2022—and yet, despite that, the economy has remained strong and stock markets have continued to hit new highs.
That all changed on Aug. 2, when a little-known indicator known as the Sahm rule began flashing red.

BONDS MAY NOT BE the most interesting investment, but they generate their fair share of debate. Especially after 2022’s rout, when total-bond market funds dropped 13%, many investors wonder how best to proceed. An open question: Does it make more sense to buy individual bonds or opt for bond funds?
To answer this question, let’s start with a simple example. Suppose you’d invested in Vanguard Group’s total-bond market fund (symbol: BND) on Jan. 1,

AMONG THE FINANCIAL topics grabbing investors’ attention, inflation for many years was near the bottom of the list. In fact, between 2010 and 2019, inflation averaged just 1.8% a year, and the Federal Reserve was looking to lift that rate. Throughout 2019, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate multiple times, citing inflation that was running below its preferred level of 2%.

But just a few years later, in the midst of the pandemic, all that changed.

SUPPOSE YOU WANTED to construct as simple an investment portfolio as possible. What would it look like?
Many argue that, for stock market exposure, you could go with a single fund, one that tracks the S&P 500 index. The S&P index offers broad diversification and tax efficiency, plus it includes the largest and most successful companies, making it a popular choice. But it’s not perfect.
The S&P 500, like many market indexes, holds stocks in proportion to their size,

A NEW TYPE OF MUTUAL fund has captured investors’ attention. Known as buffer funds, they’re so appealing that one industry analyst has referred to them as “candy.” Why? As The Wall Street Journal describes them, buffer funds offer investors “the chance to chase stock returns while also protecting against a potential market slide”—a seemingly ideal combination, especially for those in or near retirement.
But funds like this are complicated—they rely on options strategies.

FROM THE COLOSSEUM in Rome to the palace at Versailles, look around Europe and you’ll find artifacts of once-great empires. What happened to them?
Each faced its own challenges, but there was also a common theme: They had poor financial management and became overburdened by debt. That’s why a recent analysis in The Wall Street Journal—titled “Will Debt Sink the American Empire?”—is worth our attention.
In 2024, the federal government’s budget deficit will come in at $1.9 trillion.

THE YEAR’S MIDPOINT is here, with the stock market on track for its second consecutive year of above-average gains. This has many investors asking about rebalancing. Below are some commonly asked questions.
What is rebalancing? Let’s say that, to get the right mix of risk and return, you’ve settled on an asset allocation of 50% stocks and 50% bonds. Now, suppose the stock market rises 10%. This would lift stocks to some 52% of your total portfolio,

BACK IN 1987, Nassim Nicholas Taleb was a trader on Wall Street. But unlike most of his peers, Taleb wasn’t pinning his hopes on a market rally. Instead, he’d positioned himself to benefit from a market meltdown. On Oct. 19, just such an event occurred. For no apparent reason—in the midst of an otherwise strong market—the S&P 500 dropped 23% in a single day. The result: Taleb made a fortune—enough to retire at age 27.

ARE HEDGE FUNDS a good investment? To answer this question, let’s take a look at three well-known funds. The first is Renaissance Technologies.
Renaissance was founded in 1982 by academic James Simons, who’d been chair of the math department at Stony Brook University and, before that, a code-breaker for the U.S. military. Because he didn’t have a background in finance, Simons instead relied on mathematics, developing the first purely computer-driven trading system.
The result: As his biographer put it,

BRITISH PHILOSOPHER G.K. Chesterton, in his 1929 book The Thing, introduced an idea now known as “Chesterton’s fence.”
Here’s how he explained it: Imagine two people walking along a road when they discover a fence blocking the way for no apparent reason. As Chesterton tells it, the first person looks at the fence and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” But the second person disagrees: “If you don’t see the use of it,

PEOPLE DEBATE JUST about everything in personal finance. Among these arguments: how best to measure risk. Partisans on this topic tend to fall into one of two camps.
In the first group are those who believe risk can be distilled down to a single number. For these folks, the most common numerical yardstick is portfolio volatility—that is, the degree to which a portfolio’s price bounces around from year to year. Portfolios exhibiting lower volatility are deemed safer.

IN THE INVESTMENT world, there’s no shortage of data. But how useful is all that data? To help get to an answer, let’s consider four questions:
1. When the economy is strong, is that good for stocks? The simple answer is “yes.” According to textbook finance, the value of any company should represent the sum total of its future profits. When the economy is strong and profits are higher, that should be good for stocks.