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I’m not making this up. I once overheard a conversation in a bar by a couple guys who were planning something nefarious. They were discussing what was essentially the same kind of risk/reward conversation we think about when making allocation decisions; the major difference was that they were weighing time in prison should they be caught.
I don’t know how things worked out for the pair, but at least they were considering the can-of-worms they were about to open.
Another fella, Dennis, also a customer at one of the bars I used to service, was clean cut and friendly. At some point, I didn’t see him around for quite a while, and I assumed he moved away. A few years went by, and I finally ran into him having lunch at the neighborhood diner. I asked where he’d been, and he explained that he was arrested after he robbed the bank just down the street.
Dennis explained that he was at his wits end and desperate; not an unusual predicament for folks in that neighborhood. Dennis did not give much thought, or did not care about his can-of-worms. His record had been clean, no weapon was used in the great bank holdup, and he was remorseful. He got off pretty darned easy.
Our shelves are lined with cans of worms to be opened when we don’t consider the consequences.
I bet you can add a can or two of worms to my list.
Thanks Dan. The things you hear in bars!
Like lots of things in life, I think that there is a “sweet spot” for considering future consequences. Considering what might happen is certainly prudent, and a pretty good way to navigate most of your life.
But there is also a place to take a “leap of faith” and forge on, despite the rationale suggesting it’s not a good idea. The failure rate of small businesses is so high that it really doesn’t make sense to start a new venture. But despite that, people still feel compelled to give it a go, and the businesses that do survive are an enormously important part of any economy.
So true, Greg. I remember something a professor said in a marketing class over 50 years ago; a turtle is most vulnerable when his head is exposed, but he can’t get anywhere until he sticks his neck out.
Dan, this is a great reminder that every decision comes with consequences, some immediate, others that may not show up for years. I think many of life’s biggest regrets aren’t the result of bad luck but of failing to ask, “What happens next?” Your examples are all financial, but the same principle applies to relationships, health, and even the words we choose. As Jonathan often wrote, good decisions compound over time and unfortunately, so do bad ones. Thanks for another thought-provoking article.
Andrew, I wonder if those two fellas from the bar ever learned the lesson of compounding bad decisions.