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Financial Lessons

WHAT’S THE MOST important idea in personal finance? It’s hard to single out just one, but over the years, I’ve found the following dozen ideas to be among the most useful.

  1. Whether it’s on TV or online, there’s never any shortage of market prognosticators. Especially during a bull market, everyone seems to have an opinion on where things are headed. The reality, though, is that people can only guess about how the economy, the market or any individual investment will perform. Convincing as they might sound, no one has a crystal ball. That’s why, when it comes to investing, I suggest taking an evidence-based approach, one that relies as much as possible on data and research rather than on the simple stories, anecdotes and sayings that are so prevalent among market commentators.
  2. What does the data tell us? Among the most significant research in recent years is the work of Hendrik Bessembinder. In looking at the historical returns of stocks, he found that just a tiny fraction—only 4%—have accounted for the vast majority of the market’s gains over and above what Treasury bills paid, and the median stock actually delivered a negative return. This is one of the key reasons I recommend index funds rather than picking individual stocks or investing in an actively-managed fund. Identifying that 4% is almost impossibly difficult. But if you invest in a broad-based index fund, you’ll have a high likelihood of owning the next Apple or Nvidia.
  3. Be careful not to miss the forest for the trees. The most important driver of investment risk and return for most people, most of the time, is asset allocation. In other words, the dollars you have in stocks vs. in bonds or in cash will almost always be the most consequential decision. It’s easy to lose sight of that, though, because so much of the investment commentary from day to day focuses on details like small differences in fund expenses or small differences in bond yields. To be sure, details can be important, but only after considering the big picture.
  4. Another challenge in investing is that certain rules of thumb gain so much popularity that they end up being seen as rules rather than just guidelines. For example, some say that the percentage of a portfolio allocated to bonds should be equal to an investor’s age. To me, that’s illogical. Consider Bill Gates. He’s 70 years old, but it stands to reason that he shouldn’t have the same asset allocation as any other 70-year-old. Rules of thumb are useful as points of reference, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that everyone’s situation is different, and our investments should reflect that. More to the point, don’t worry if you’re doing something different from the next person.
  5. Buy insurance, but only to protect against losses you couldn’t absorb on your own. What does this mean in practice? In many cases, it’s possible to significantly cut insurance premiums by increasing deductibles. For example, if you have a seven-figure net worth, you might consider raising the deductible on your homeowner’s insurance to $5,000 or $10,000 or even more. Similarly, you might re-evaluate your life insurance as your net worth grows. You’ll likely become “self-insured” at some point, and then you could reduce or drop that coverage.
  6. Personal finance is quantitative, but we should never make decisions based only on the numbers. For example, a common question is how much cash to keep on hand. While we could work out an optimal number on a calculator, that shouldn’t be the final answer. You should also consider what would provide you with peace of mind. That is equally important.
  7. Be wary of the psychological pitfall known as recency bias. This is the tendency to extrapolate from recent experience and to downplay the possibility that things might change. The most famous example? In the late-1920s, when the stock market was booming, Yale University economist Irving Fisher declared that the stock market had reached a “permanently high plateau.” Just nine days later, the market crashed, ultimately dropping 89% from its peak.
  8. Avoid high fees. The research firm Morningstar once wrote, “If there’s anything in the whole world of mutual funds that you can take to the bank, it’s that expense ratios help you make better decisions. In every single time period and data point tested, low-cost funds beat high-cost funds.”
  9. Keep things simple. Most importantly, I would be wary of investments that aren’t easily understood. Not only can this help keep investment costs down, but it also makes it much easier to monitor your financial picture. Legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said it best: “Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.”
  10. Avoid “interesting” investments. So far this year, Wall Street has introduced more than 1,000 new exchange-traded funds (ETFs). How many of these are worth your attention? My guess is you could probably count them on one hand. More than 80% of these new funds are actively-managed, and more than 30% employ leverage. And there are more to come. Fund companies recently filed paperwork to create ETFs that will track the performance of major league sports teams. They won’t actually own shares in the teams; instead, they’re expected to rise and fall in response to each team’s wins and losses.
  11. For years, I’ve argued that bitcoin isn’t a valid investment. Even though it’s gone way up since I first made that argument, I still feel the same way, and for the same reason: because it lacks intrinsic value. Unlike stocks or bonds, it doesn’t generate any dividends or interest. Bitcoin’s price is not anchored to anything measurable or tangible, and that’s why, in my opinion, its price is so volatile.
  12. When it comes to investment risk, investors’ attention usually turns to the stock market. That makes sense, but as we’ve seen this year, bonds are not without risk. And unfortunately, the total-bond market index, which is often seen as the simplest, set-it-and-forget-it option, is one that carries quite a bit of risk. If you’re choosing bond investments, my recommendation is to pay attention to a metric known as duration. This tells you how sensitive a bond, or bond fund, will be to interest rate changes. In my view, investors should hold a sizable portion of their bond investments in a fund, or in individual bonds, with a duration of less than two years.

Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam’s Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.

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Fund Daddy
18 days ago

Was owning a bond index a great idea over the last 5, 10, or 15 years?Definitely not.
BND’s annualized returns over those periods were only about -0.60%, 1.20%, and 1.76%, respectively.

When the Fed announced in early 2022 that it would raise rates rapidly to fight inflation, why didn’t you sell?If you knew rates were about to rise rapidly, why blindly hold a bond fund whose price is highly sensitive to rising rates?

Is long-term-care insurance (LTC) a good deal?
For most, it’s too expensive, and policies can come with numerous restrictions, exclusions, and loopholes.

As usual, the answer depends 🙂

Last edited 18 days ago by Fund Daddy
medhat
18 days ago

Great post Adam. I may not agree fully with all of them but this is a great holistic perspective.

Michael Carron
18 days ago

Adam, thank you for this insight. I put this article right up there with Jonathan’s in the WSJ about what defines happiness. Tell the guy below who’s complaining about you not responding to his comments to get lost.

Cammer Michael
19 days ago

Bitcoin’s price is based in the desire of people to own it, which is measurable or tangible in the same way the price of gold or silver, stocks, or cash itself are based in desire or perception. Water, food, and energy are a little different.

Last edited 19 days ago by Cammer Michael
Martin McCue
19 days ago

A thought-provoking list. Even if you don’t quite agree with all of them, they make you think. And where I might disagree, it is more a question of degree. One small question I still struggle over is how much cash to hold, knowing its value erodes over time. (The counter to that might be the risk of a giant financial accounts breakdown or hack (AI or otherwise) and records loss, that might make real cash valuable for a while – at least physical cash.).

Last edited 19 days ago by Martin McCue
Jeff Peck
19 days ago

Thank you, Adam.

This is a good reminder that we can’t predict the market, but we can control how much risk we take, what we pay in fees, and whether our investments fit our lives. As I get closer to retirement, that last point matters most to me. A simple plan I can understand and stick with is worth more than trying to make the perfect call.

Jeff

Michael Flack
19 days ago

I just don’t like the fact that this guy publishes a weekly column but yet can’t be bothered to reply to comments–which seems antithetical to the whole HumbleDollar thing. It all may make a commenter that much more strident in his replies: While I agree that at some point self insurance may make sense for an older car (i.e. drop your collision and comprehensive), the idea of raising your deductible is laughable and makes me doubt all the other “lessons” lectured. My insurance company (USAA) is better than most and does not offer a homeowners or auto deductible greater than $1,000 (I’ve just checked . . . again). Also, when the Board of my condominium asked to increase the property deductible from $5,000 to $10,000 we were informed that the savings would be less than a penny on the dollar. Can I get insurance advice that is actionable instead of banal?

Last edited 19 days ago by Michael Flack
Joe Cyax
18 days ago
Reply to  Michael Flack

My experience:

Around 2014 or so, a coworker had a tree fall on house and damage the siding, at the time, it was around $4-5K in damage. His home insurance covered it. Then they dropped him. Then he had trouble finding another policy at non-inflated prices.

So, I took a “note-to-self”: Do not put in a claim unless you really cannot afford it, because, if, you do, I think you end up paying for it in the future year adjustments (because now you have been “marked” as “one of those people”: fairly or unfairly – that is how it works).

In 2020, home insurance prices were rocketing up, partly due to the financial effects of covid relief and who knows what else. My renewal was going to go up ~ 20% (with, at the time, a 1K deductible).

Based on what I had learned from others, I knew I would not put in a claim unless I really could not afford it. At that point in time, I was lucky enough to be able to absorb a much bigger loss than 1K, so I raised my deductble to 25K.

My premuim dropped 38% that year from what it would have been, and of course, I have reaped the benefits of the higher deductible/lower premium since.

So, not everyone can afford a “big” loss – it is all relative to what their situation is. But, I am clearly in the camp of “don’t buy lots of insurance for something you can pay for yourself.”

Last edited 18 days ago by Joe Cyax
Martin McCue
19 days ago
Reply to  Michael Flack

A quick comment on HumbleDollar authors. Jonathan lived, breathed and labored over HumbleDollar constantly, and he probably read every single comment ever made. He was unique, and it was his baby that he was caring for. It was also his livelihood. I don’t think Adam or others should (or can) be held to that standard. It is unrealistic. They are still making valuable contributions with what they write.
(And even Jonathan was wrong once in a while, I think… 🙂 )

Last edited 19 days ago by Martin McCue
Michael Flack
19 days ago
Reply to  Martin McCue

Martin, I don’t ask that writers reply to every comment or even more importantly my comments. How about starting by replying to one comment per article and then seeing where it goes?

Joey
18 days ago
Reply to  Michael Flack

You want these writers, who basically work for free in addition to their own jobs, to take even more time out after crafting their pieces to respond to people and “see where it goes”? Interesting.

If you want to be entertained by writer responses, I suggest you read Dick Quinn’s pieces. He’s pretty prolific.

Michael Flack
15 days ago
Reply to  Joey

Joey!!!! Adam Grossman is money manager, I mean the founder of a fixed-fee wealth management firm. If you think he writes these articles purely to enrich Humble Dollar readers, you may want to take a tighter hold of your wallet.

Also, I don’t want to be entertained, I want to be informed. Though thanks for the tip about Quinn. He’s quite informing and even more importantly, he replies to my comments.

Last edited 15 days ago by Michael Flack
Bill C
15 days ago
Reply to  Michael Flack

I would “humbly” state that Adam does inform us weekly. Whether you agree or not is up to you to decide. You can make points in the comments that you may wish to debate, or have further discussion on, and other posters will almost always share their thoughts. I for one am grateful that Adam posts his weekly Saturday essays which I almost always find to be informative and educational in a way the rest of the website is not.

Michael Flack
13 days ago
Reply to  Bill C

Bill C, When I started reading your comment (btw: thanks for the reply), I, of course, mentally started to prepare a very pointed and insightful rebuttal. That is until you criticized the balance of HumbleDollar, at which point I just wanted to shake your hand.

Edmund Marsh
20 days ago

So much wisdom. Thank you, Adam!

Clay Plaisance
20 days ago

Adam, thank you. I am curious what people think (and maybe you can consider devoting a future column(s) to writing more) about 4. and 5. A discussion of the comfort of holding more cash than most investing wisdom would suggest as we get older might be useful. Cash might return less and inflation will eat it, but a little less overall return might be worth the comfort of ready cash. Also, I am curious what people are doing about term life insurance as they retire. Even if the financial house is in order and the reasons from forty years ago when we signed up for term no longer apply, ceasing the coverage is a big decision. Annual premiums are sky high as we age, but the payout date is also closer. So each year, I think about letting it lapse, but decide that one year of premium has an outsized payoff.

Finally, I recommend a terrific podcast, The Library of Mistakes, which recently covered Bessembinder’s work, and particularly the idea that many people are not understanding how to use the results of his work.

Andy Morrison
14 days ago
Reply to  Clay Plaisance

Clay,
For what it’s worth…
I am nearing retirement very very soon. As planned 10-15 years ago, my term life insurance policies are expiring within the next few months to six months of my expected retirement year. I checked prices and considered reasons to continue, and I’ve come to the conclusion that I am going to let my term insurance expire. No need for an additional lottery ticket, my heirs will be just fine with inheritance. No salary to cover anymore and see no need to ensure expected Social Security in the future. Hope that helps.

R Quinn
20 days ago

There are so many uncontrollable events affecting stocks and bonds I can’t see how the predictability of the markets is any better than pulling the handle on your favorite slot machine, or pushing the PLAY button these days…but we keep trying.

Phil Scott
20 days ago

On #12, I say “Bond ladder, 3 month intervals, 8 steps”! And if possible do auto-roll. It’s worked for us for 10 years. It’s in Roth IRAs and we enjoy very little stress. I’ll check on things a couple times a month. There’s enough income from 2 SS checks and a pension that the Roths grow untouched. Trad-IRA-RMD’s pay the property tax and school tax (NY State _Ugh_, but that’s where the Grands are!!) though we are getting to the point where Roth Conversions and QCD’s are more and more meaningful every year. Would be really nice if Congress/IRS would expand the 12% tax bracket, ‘just a wee bit’ –please.

Cammer Michael
20 days ago

The two most important lessons I think of are a behavioral one and a simple mathematical one (which you hint at when you say to avoid fees).

1. Just do it. Put some money aside.
2. Compounding.

William Dorner
20 days ago

Excellent article Adam, please keep contributing. I notice you indicated a 2 year bond. How about explaining Treasuries and how do you buy, hold, and sell them. Where do you buy them?
Thanks again for your interesting articles.

Brian White
4 days ago
Reply to  William Dorner

You buy them directly from the US Treasury at treasurydirect.gov

Randy Dobkin
4 days ago
Reply to  Brian White

Easier to buy from Fidelity, Schwab or Vanguard.

Jack Hannam
20 days ago

This is an excellent list of ideas to keep in mind.

Senthil Nathan
20 days ago

Excellent Adam. Every word of wisdom in your article from points 1 to 12 gave me a feeling as if it was written by our beloved Jonathan Clements. Thank you. I’m going to share this article with two young adults in my family.

Brian White
20 days ago

Thanks, Adam. Now if each one of these could be the beginning of a lecture to every high school student, we’d have a lot more financially savvy adults. I would mention compounding and investing early, too.

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