THE COSTS WE PAY for active investment management are important—far more important than most investors seem to realize, particularly when the stock market is going up and up.
Start with an interesting reality: Nobody ever actually pays such fees by writing a check. Graciously, money managers take care of that, deducting their fees from the assets they manage for us. Out of sight, out of mind. But wait: Perhaps, instead of being grateful, we should be careful to understand what’s going on.
IF YOU’RE LIKE ME, you want to stick with your long-term investment plan, while remaining open to new ideas. It’s a balancing act—to avoid missing a new, long-lasting trend, while not getting caught up in a bubble.
That’s how I feel about cryptocurrencies. Their market cap has swelled to $2.6 trillion. But what does that mean? Contrast that to the value of the global stock and bond markets: Each is about $125 trillion.
To me,
SOME INVESTORS TODAY are avoiding bonds because rising interest rates could cause the price of bonds to fall. I’m not one of them. Bond funds continue to play a significant role in my investment portfolio. Here are eight reasons I’m sticking with my funds:
This isn’t a good time to sell. Bonds have already factored in the market’s expectation that rates will rise. Interest rates have climbed this year, causing a decline in bond prices.
ASSET ALLOCATION is usually a set-it-and-forget-it exercise. At least, that’s how I’ve handled it until now. I decided on my appetite for risk, then set my stock-bond ratio accordingly.
I tallied everything once or twice a year, and then rebalanced. I’d apply a portion of my winning positions to my less successful asset classes. Rebalancing this way forced me to buy low and sell high. Combined with dollar-cost averaging, it’s an investing approach that’s served me well for more than 20 years.
MY LAST BLOG POST—about value-oriented Dodge & Cox Stock Fund—got me looking at the long-term returns for some highly touted large- and mid-cap growth and blend funds from 15 years ago. My surprise: Of the 15 funds in my admittedly unscientific sample, six went on to outpace both the S&P 500 and an index fund focused on the same market segment.
The six winners are boldfaced in the accompanying table. Note: For two of the winners,
GREEN INVESTORS TRY to manage their portfolios in ways that are good for the Earth. But are they rewarded with good investment returns? Researchers believe the answer is a qualified “yes,” according to a new paper titled “Dissecting Green Returns.”
The paper found that, between 2012 and 2020, U.S. green stocks delivered higher returns than environmentally unfriendly “brown” companies. But the paper argues this outperformance—which averaged about 0.65% a month—is unlikely to persist.
“Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance,
EACH OF US IS UNIQUE. That’s how our friends instantly know who we are. In ways large and small, we differ from others in appearance, in the sound of our voice, in our age, stature and politics. Our life experiences differ greatly. Our fears and anxieties differ, as do our aspirations.
We are different financially, too. Our incomes vary, sometimes greatly. So do our savings. Some of us have inherited wealth; some none. Some of us feel a strong responsibility for others.
NOTHING IN INVESTING better exemplifies what the late Donald Rumsfeld called a known unknown than the concept of intrinsic value. The relationship between a company’s current share price and its actual value over its lifetime has always been tenuous—but perhaps never more so.
Before the rise of modern technology, courtesy of Silicon Valley, intrinsic value was difficult to adjudge in a reliable way. Now, ascertaining intrinsic value has become nearly impossible—because “software is eating the world.”
AFTER THE DEATH of my father-in-law, I helped my mother-in-law organize and simplify their finances. One task I distinctly remember: taking her to the local bank, where she cashed in dozens of old savings bonds, some past their maturity date. It was a tedious process.
It wasn’t just my late father-in-law who failed to stay on top of such things. Last year, I discovered an envelope full of Series I savings bonds that I’d forgotten about.
IT WASN’T LONG AGO that a saver could make a few bucks in a money market fund. In late 2018, the Federal Reserve had hiked short-term interest rates. By early the next year, Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VMFXX) was sporting a yield near 2.5%.
While it might take years to see that sort of juicy risk-free rate again, market observers now believe the Fed will begin a tightening cycle that will lead to higher short-term interest rates.
BEFORE THE FIRST World War, serious investors invested serious money in bonds, real estate and railroad shares. Other stocks were deemed “speculative” and “not investment quality.” Then came Edgar Lawrence Smith and his extensive 1924 study, Common Stocks as Long Term Investments, in which he documented the higher returns to be had by investing in stocks.
Soon, the focus of institutional and individual investors was centered on stocks, but bonds were still considered important for every investor’s portfolio.
AFTER A 13-YEAR drought, value stocks surged over the past year, and arguably no fund rode the wave better than the venerable Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (symbol: DODGX), which was launched in 1965. Long one of the largest and most respected mutual funds, it’s run by a nine-member investment committee, though the fund is perhaps most associated with Charles Pohl, who has been a manager for 30 years and is set to retire in 2022.
INVESTORS SHOULD diligently track two things: their portfolio’s performance and their asset allocation.
To monitor overall performance is humbling. If you’re like me, you eventually realize how much your cockamamie market-beating schemes have lagged the market—and it dawns on you that you could do much better by simply mimicking the market with index funds and occasionally rebalancing.
What percentage of your portfolio should be in U.S. shares, foreign stocks, cash, bonds and other assets?
I THANK MURTHY, a friend at college, for teaching me guitar. Instead of theories, he taught me five easy chords. I could soon play a few songs and that fueled my motivation to learn more.
The same strategy can help beginner investors. Novices often find the stock market intimidating and mysterious. Result? Inaction and opportunity cost. Solution? Simple steps.
A former coworker comes to my mind. He was uninterested in stocks, including the company shares he received as part of his pay.