Thanks Bodgan, I always like the outlook of a professional. I must say I almost fell asleep, it is all way too complicated. The only effect for me is if I have Great Grandchildren, all Grands are already over 18. I think starting with a $1000 that you have to save, is a good thing, just hopefully people will add to it in a Great Index Fund. I am a 100% believer in Index funds, like IVV, VOO for S&P and the like.
No one really knows, you can use averages, but every BODY is different. I go by my parents, and most importantly how much stress have you had in your life and work life. So, I tell my brain I want to live to 3 digits, 100. I have a chance, Mom 93 and Dad 101! Grandma 90. There are always surprises too, like when I developed Multiple Myeloma cancer at age 72, but because of good Doctors and Trials, it is at by, always there but so far under control. When it comes to money I like to have extra, so all my spreadsheets and calculations use 100.
Thanks Mark for your insight about mortgages, pluses and minuses. I chose long ago to pay it off sooner, rather than later, and as such when we retired, we had NO mortgage, just the way we envisioned it. Never like paying those interest rates, and yes, in the 1970's, the rate were like 12% and more. Our final rate in the 1978 was 9.75% and 8% in 1995, my kids had rate in the 4% range in the 2020's. The whole idea to me is, know all the pluses and minuses then make your decision.
Money is on my mind, as at 79, I want to insure we have enough. I use spreadsheets to make my calculations and so far all has worked out. We chose the CCRC route, with insurance to keep expenses lower if nursing or memory care is ever needed. Do it now when there is no need to do it, no pressure. This works for us, but for sure, not for everyone. My suggestion if you are thinking CCRC, visit 5 to 10 of them, the only way to get what I call the REAL information, you kind of have to live it. Then get on a waiting list, that way you will be in line if you decide, because right now our CCRC is 100% filled! There seems to be a lot of activity in this style of living for us baby boomers. Best to all.
What is safe is the amount needs to allow for life's ups and downs. Remember it is a guide, not a "for sure", and by the way who is this average person. I say if 4% or 5% just make sure you push the numbers in a spreadsheet. Will we live to 90 or 100 or 82? We do not know. My calculations are conservative and I use 100, the age I would like to reach. And in my retirement since 60 years old, expenses seem to increase, no matter what my age, at least so far, now 79. We all have different circumstances, but we need to plan, and then hope the plan works. The fact that you planned will for sure make your situation better.
Thanks for the ride, when I checked the distance it came up over 1400 miles, there is a Monclova, Mexico, then I changed to OHIO, 300 miles. Although it costs more, I use UPS almost exclusively, and sometimes FedEx. But as some have said the best bet is to buy from Amazon, and most everything comes very quickly, sometimes same day.
Remember when 1st class mail in your community would arrive the next day!
Adam thanks for another very interesting article, we continue to enjoy your work. I have NO intentions of ever following a so called 20% per year average winner. Things always seem to change, check this out: Baupost 2015–2025: Performance dropped significantly, averaging only ~4% annually. The fund faced headwinds from:
Persistently low interest rates
A surging growth-driven stock market
Defensive positioning and cash-heavy portfolios
Underperformance in public equities (–18.93% over the last 10 years)
Nothing of these abundant annual earnings last forever. My take, stick with the tried and true S&P 500, that is where 75% of my investments are, I am a believer in very long term excellent performance, 10% and more is just fine, as that means my investments double every 7 years. S&P 500 10-Year Cumulative Return:Approximately +180%, or about 10.9% annualized over the decade.
Despite volatility in 2018 and 2022, the index delivered strong gains overall—especially in 2019, 2021, and 2023. If you're benchmarking Baupost or other value funds against this, the S&P has clearly outpaced many traditional hedge strategies in recent years. I with Buffett, who said if he dies, his wife should put most of her investments 85% in the S&P 500. Amen.
Overall, I am very optimistic. Here why, my parents in the 1950's worried pretty much about the same things we worry about today. How will our children navigate all this new tech. Overall, pretty well, my take. The more things change the more they stay the same!
Thanks for letting us know more about this program at Fidelity, Vanguard and others. It is not for me, and one reason is my ETF's like IVV are rarely used. Meme stocks, I do not hold. 80% of my portfolio is in S&P500 ETF's.
Wishing you the best, and hoping no pitfalls. If it works for you great, but I believe there are NO free lunches. Time will tell all.
Well done, you can keep calm, but also remain vigilant. After 20 years out at 80, I can assure you, all will not go according to plan, but at the same time the fact that you planned, will get you where you want to go. One thing we did learn, is we spend more per year in retirement than when I was working. Luckily, we saved and invested well, so now you will spend instead of save, that is a major change and will take some getting used to. That old 60/40 portfolio, is now 85/15, 80% index funds, mostly S&P 500, 5% other and 15% cash to tide you over in down years in the market. Bonds never helped me enough, and seemed to have too many poor years. So far so good. Best to you in retirement, make it a most delightful time.
Comments
Thanks Bodgan, I always like the outlook of a professional. I must say I almost fell asleep, it is all way too complicated. The only effect for me is if I have Great Grandchildren, all Grands are already over 18. I think starting with a $1000 that you have to save, is a good thing, just hopefully people will add to it in a Great Index Fund. I am a 100% believer in Index funds, like IVV, VOO for S&P and the like.
Post: Trump Accounts: A Deep Dive into Kids’ Savings
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
No one really knows, you can use averages, but every BODY is different. I go by my parents, and most importantly how much stress have you had in your life and work life. So, I tell my brain I want to live to 3 digits, 100. I have a chance, Mom 93 and Dad 101! Grandma 90. There are always surprises too, like when I developed Multiple Myeloma cancer at age 72, but because of good Doctors and Trials, it is at by, always there but so far under control. When it comes to money I like to have extra, so all my spreadsheets and calculations use 100.
Post: How Long Will We Live?
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Thanks Mark for your insight about mortgages, pluses and minuses. I chose long ago to pay it off sooner, rather than later, and as such when we retired, we had NO mortgage, just the way we envisioned it. Never like paying those interest rates, and yes, in the 1970's, the rate were like 12% and more. Our final rate in the 1978 was 9.75% and 8% in 1995, my kids had rate in the 4% range in the 2020's. The whole idea to me is, know all the pluses and minuses then make your decision.
Post: A Contrarian View of a Mortgage
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Money is on my mind, as at 79, I want to insure we have enough. I use spreadsheets to make my calculations and so far all has worked out. We chose the CCRC route, with insurance to keep expenses lower if nursing or memory care is ever needed. Do it now when there is no need to do it, no pressure. This works for us, but for sure, not for everyone. My suggestion if you are thinking CCRC, visit 5 to 10 of them, the only way to get what I call the REAL information, you kind of have to live it. Then get on a waiting list, that way you will be in line if you decide, because right now our CCRC is 100% filled! There seems to be a lot of activity in this style of living for us baby boomers. Best to all.
Post: Why Money is Taking Up More Space in My Mind Lately
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
What is safe is the amount needs to allow for life's ups and downs. Remember it is a guide, not a "for sure", and by the way who is this average person. I say if 4% or 5% just make sure you push the numbers in a spreadsheet. Will we live to 90 or 100 or 82? We do not know. My calculations are conservative and I use 100, the age I would like to reach. And in my retirement since 60 years old, expenses seem to increase, no matter what my age, at least so far, now 79. We all have different circumstances, but we need to plan, and then hope the plan works. The fact that you planned will for sure make your situation better.
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Thanks for the ride, when I checked the distance it came up over 1400 miles, there is a Monclova, Mexico, then I changed to OHIO, 300 miles. Although it costs more, I use UPS almost exclusively, and sometimes FedEx. But as some have said the best bet is to buy from Amazon, and most everything comes very quickly, sometimes same day. Remember when 1st class mail in your community would arrive the next day!
Post: A Record Journey
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Adam thanks for another very interesting article, we continue to enjoy your work. I have NO intentions of ever following a so called 20% per year average winner. Things always seem to change, check this out: Baupost 2015–2025: Performance dropped significantly, averaging only ~4% annually. The fund faced headwinds from:
- Persistently low interest rates
- A surging growth-driven stock market
- Defensive positioning and cash-heavy portfolios
- Underperformance in public equities (–18.93% over the last 10 years)
Nothing of these abundant annual earnings last forever. My take, stick with the tried and true S&P 500, that is where 75% of my investments are, I am a believer in very long term excellent performance, 10% and more is just fine, as that means my investments double every 7 years. S&P 500 10-Year Cumulative Return:Approximately +180%, or about 10.9% annualized over the decade. Despite volatility in 2018 and 2022, the index delivered strong gains overall—especially in 2019, 2021, and 2023. If you're benchmarking Baupost or other value funds against this, the S&P has clearly outpaced many traditional hedge strategies in recent years. I with Buffett, who said if he dies, his wife should put most of her investments 85% in the S&P 500. Amen.Post: How to Beat the Market
Link to comment from August 24, 2025
Overall, I am very optimistic. Here why, my parents in the 1950's worried pretty much about the same things we worry about today. How will our children navigate all this new tech. Overall, pretty well, my take. The more things change the more they stay the same!
Post: Back to the Future
Link to comment from August 16, 2025
Thanks for letting us know more about this program at Fidelity, Vanguard and others. It is not for me, and one reason is my ETF's like IVV are rarely used. Meme stocks, I do not hold. 80% of my portfolio is in S&P500 ETF's. Wishing you the best, and hoping no pitfalls. If it works for you great, but I believe there are NO free lunches. Time will tell all.
Post: Free Lunch?
Link to comment from August 16, 2025
Well done, you can keep calm, but also remain vigilant. After 20 years out at 80, I can assure you, all will not go according to plan, but at the same time the fact that you planned, will get you where you want to go. One thing we did learn, is we spend more per year in retirement than when I was working. Luckily, we saved and invested well, so now you will spend instead of save, that is a major change and will take some getting used to. That old 60/40 portfolio, is now 85/15, 80% index funds, mostly S&P 500, 5% other and 15% cash to tide you over in down years in the market. Bonds never helped me enough, and seemed to have too many poor years. So far so good. Best to you in retirement, make it a most delightful time.
Post: Keeping Calm
Link to comment from August 16, 2025