Climate change is caused by the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) already emitted by fossil fuels that have been burned over the past centuries. Please read carefully.... 1.1 Trillion (yes, Trillion) tonnes of CO2 has been added to the atmosphere by humans. This will inexorably warm this planet to ~6C above preindustrial due to amplifying feedbacks. The other GHGs will add a further ~4C.
10C is 18 degrees Fahrenheit. See Dr. James Hansen, “Global Warming in the Pipeline” :
https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 We know what GHGs do to this planet by studying ice cores and other paleoclimate records. Around 120ppm CO2-equivalent caused ~7C of global warming during the last deglaciation. Humanity has now added a further 140ppm CO2 plus other GHGs in a geological instant. The Earth takes time to respond to such an influx. But it will respond as a certainty of physics. According to observations and modeling, 60% to 90% of the eventual warming can be expected to materialize over the next 100 years. Our problem, simply, is: There's no way to get the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) out of the air.
There's no way to get the heat out of the oceans.
There's no way to stop the ice sheets melting.
Sea level rise on its own is an apocalypse. The true objective of humanity is to survive this event as long as possible with the least possible suffering. There's nothing else. It might seem that there are other options but that's just an illusion.
Submitted for your consideration : Consider a Japanese worker who started working in 1980. Assuming a 30-year career & $1K annual investment into Nikkei 225, by the time he retired in 2010, the $30K invested would have turned into $20K. A -31% return over 30 years. https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/how-safe-are-stocks-in-the-long-run
Well, Mr. Clements, there are two major issues which maybe game-changers. We have apparently finished a 40 year cycle of declining interest rates from high double digits to near zero. This 40 year bond bull market has been the backdrop for every investor alive, so it feels like a normal state of affairs. Now at almost 5% up from near zero, everything must be re-priced with a new hurdle rate. You can already see the effects in the commercial real estate market. We also know when we pay for higher valuation, we get lower future returns. At the same time, a debt cycle has risen from near zero to Trillions. Many economists have argued when debt exceeds 100% of GDP, the economy will struggle to produce growth. Now think about personal and corporate debt. My thoughts are investors need to pay attention, the macro environment has changed radically, unlike any living investor/portfolio manager has experienced. The question is how shall our portfolios change?
Toyota Hybrids all shut the engine off when not needed, especially when at a standstill, it will even shut off when coasting downhill. The driving mode basically changes the shift points. The ECO mode also reduce the heater/AC loads which are all electric. My experience is the ECO mode can add 3 to 5 MPG mine is always on except when leaving sports cars at the light - great fun! And his Toyota does have Apple Play.
My 2022 Toyota Camry Hybrid unlocks when I touch the door handle with the key fob in my pocket and the car will start with the key in my pocket. Most dealers have a "car tech" rep who can answer all those types of questions.
The one thing about these new vehicles is the safety equipment such as electronic traction control and electronic stability control will prevent accidents. And my advice is join us in the 21st century - streaming music via bluetooth in your vehicle is quite simple, you can even build your own playlists on your smartphone and if you happen to subscribe to Amazon Prime it's included. You should have a free 90 day trial of SiriusXM as well, worth trying.
My problem with index funds is human emotion. Most indexes are driven by market capitalization ( # of shares X share price ). It's the share price where human emotion enters. We know that in say, the S&P 500 there are overvalued stocks and undervalued stocks, we just don't yet know which are which - wait 10 years for the earnings. Right now, Apple and Microsoft combined are 13.4% of the index which means for every $1,000 index purchase, $134 goes into those two stocks.Yes, those are great companies but are they at great prices? So for that reason, I've been looking at "fundamental" indexes which do not use market capitalization ( price ).
I helped my widowed father in law manage his financial affairs and back in 2010/2011, after careful consideration, we decided to use $100,000 of his savings and buy an immediate life annuity with full refund. He was 90 years old at the time. We did this because his local savings and loan was paying about 1/2 of 1% interest on his CDs generating about $500 per year on $100,000. His annuity paid $1,070 per month or $12,840 per year. He recently passed away at age 104. He had been in assisted living and his last full month, the monthly cost was $6,000 per month. Social Security and his annuity was generating $3,070 per month. I calculate his remaining savings would have lasted another 55 months. Because of the annuity, he outlived his savings.
Thank you, Mr. Quinn. Most people do not realize that Social Security is supported by a dedicated tax ( FICA ) which on its own would support paying today's benefits at around 70%. The trust funds were the result of the Greenspan Commission in the 1980s which foresaw the baby boomer bulge and increased FICA taxes to fund future benefits.
Comments
Climate change is caused by the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) already emitted by fossil fuels that have been burned over the past centuries. Please read carefully.... 1.1 Trillion (yes, Trillion) tonnes of CO2 has been added to the atmosphere by humans. This will inexorably warm this planet to ~6C above preindustrial due to amplifying feedbacks. The other GHGs will add a further ~4C. 10C is 18 degrees Fahrenheit. See Dr. James Hansen, “Global Warming in the Pipeline” : https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 We know what GHGs do to this planet by studying ice cores and other paleoclimate records. Around 120ppm CO2-equivalent caused ~7C of global warming during the last deglaciation. Humanity has now added a further 140ppm CO2 plus other GHGs in a geological instant. The Earth takes time to respond to such an influx. But it will respond as a certainty of physics. According to observations and modeling, 60% to 90% of the eventual warming can be expected to materialize over the next 100 years. Our problem, simply, is: There's no way to get the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) out of the air. There's no way to get the heat out of the oceans. There's no way to stop the ice sheets melting. Sea level rise on its own is an apocalypse. The true objective of humanity is to survive this event as long as possible with the least possible suffering. There's nothing else. It might seem that there are other options but that's just an illusion.
Post: What You Can Do
Link to comment from November 16, 2024
Submitted for your consideration :
Consider a Japanese worker who started working in 1980.Assuming a 30-year career & $1K annual investment into Nikkei 225,by the time he retired in 2010, the $30K invested would have turnedinto $20K. A -31% return over 30 years.https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/how-safe-are-stocks-in-the-long-runPost: Not Scared of Bears
Link to comment from April 29, 2024
Well, Mr. Clements, there are two major issues which maybe game-changers. We have apparently finished a 40 year cycle of declining interest rates from high double digits to near zero. This 40 year bond bull market has been the backdrop for every investor alive, so it feels like a normal state of affairs. Now at almost 5% up from near zero, everything must be re-priced with a new hurdle rate. You can already see the effects in the commercial real estate market. We also know when we pay for higher valuation, we get lower future returns. At the same time, a debt cycle has risen from near zero to Trillions. Many economists have argued when debt exceeds 100% of GDP, the economy will struggle to produce growth. Now think about personal and corporate debt. My thoughts are investors need to pay attention, the macro environment has changed radically, unlike any living investor/portfolio manager has experienced. The question is how shall our portfolios change?
Post: Not Scared of Bears
Link to comment from April 27, 2024
Toyota Hybrids all shut the engine off when not needed, especially when at a standstill, it will even shut off when coasting downhill. The driving mode basically changes the shift points. The ECO mode also reduce the heater/AC loads which are all electric. My experience is the ECO mode can add 3 to 5 MPG mine is always on except when leaving sports cars at the light - great fun! And his Toyota does have Apple Play.
Post: It Also Has Wheels
Link to comment from April 15, 2023
My 2022 Toyota Camry Hybrid unlocks when I touch the door handle with the key fob in my pocket and the car will start with the key in my pocket. Most dealers have a "car tech" rep who can answer all those types of questions.
Post: It Also Has Wheels
Link to comment from April 15, 2023
The one thing about these new vehicles is the safety equipment such as electronic traction control and electronic stability control will prevent accidents. And my advice is join us in the 21st century - streaming music via bluetooth in your vehicle is quite simple, you can even build your own playlists on your smartphone and if you happen to subscribe to Amazon Prime it's included. You should have a free 90 day trial of SiriusXM as well, worth trying.
Post: It Also Has Wheels
Link to comment from April 15, 2023
My problem with index funds is human emotion. Most indexes are driven by market capitalization ( # of shares X share price ). It's the share price where human emotion enters. We know that in say, the S&P 500 there are overvalued stocks and undervalued stocks, we just don't yet know which are which - wait 10 years for the earnings. Right now, Apple and Microsoft combined are 13.4% of the index which means for every $1,000 index purchase, $134 goes into those two stocks.Yes, those are great companies but are they at great prices? So for that reason, I've been looking at "fundamental" indexes which do not use market capitalization ( price ).
Post: Does it ever make sense to buy actively managed funds?
Link to comment from April 8, 2023
I helped my widowed father in law manage his financial affairs and back in 2010/2011, after careful consideration, we decided to use $100,000 of his savings and buy an immediate life annuity with full refund. He was 90 years old at the time. We did this because his local savings and loan was paying about 1/2 of 1% interest on his CDs generating about $500 per year on $100,000. His annuity paid $1,070 per month or $12,840 per year. He recently passed away at age 104. He had been in assisted living and his last full month, the monthly cost was $6,000 per month. Social Security and his annuity was generating $3,070 per month. I calculate his remaining savings would have lasted another 55 months. Because of the annuity, he outlived his savings.
Post: No Going Back
Link to comment from March 18, 2023
For every economist with a prediction, there is another economist with the opposite prediction and they are both wrong!
Post: Guess Again
Link to comment from January 21, 2023
Thank you, Mr. Quinn. Most people do not realize that Social Security is supported by a dedicated tax ( FICA ) which on its own would support paying today's benefits at around 70%. The trust funds were the result of the Greenspan Commission in the 1980s which foresaw the baby boomer bulge and increased FICA taxes to fund future benefits.
Post: Nine Retirement Myths
Link to comment from January 7, 2023