TechnoPeasantx

Comments:

• BTC is everything I don't understand about money coupled with everything I don't understand about computers. So speculative investment? 😉

  Post: Is bitcoin an investment or a speculation—and why?

  Link to comment from July 30, 2023

• On the other hand, a person who retired in 2000 and spent down SPY got savaged by DCA in reverse.

  Post: Courage Required

  Link to comment from July 22, 2023

• Good points and a timely reminder! Allow me to add a few more.☺ Create the SSA and IRS accounts before placing freezes.Chex systems needs a freeze too as its also used by Banks and CU.Put a password on your mobile voice mail box.Add a security phrase or 2FA with wireless providers to thwart SIM swaps.Get off of Windows 7 and 8.Use a local not cloud-based password manager such as KeePass.Establish a passphrase with close family to stop A.I. voice mimicking ransom attacks. For example, "My door is a jar" or "My mom is a car"Treat ALL phone calls, emails and text messages from the Treasury, SSA,IRS or FBI as frauds.

  Post: For Safety’s Sake

  Link to comment from June 24, 2023

• But haven't tax rates gone down 15 of 25 years since 2000? Were Roth conversions even possible prior to 1998? Given the capricious nature of politicians I see no compelling reason for me to prepay a future tax liability.

  Post: Eyeing the Future

  Link to comment from May 27, 2023

• Its a counter factual so no way to know for sure. Without index funds I never would have retired on rents and dividends stocks.

  Post: If you couldn’t buy index funds, how would you invest?

  Link to comment from May 8, 2023

• I wouldn't use a target-date fund for retirement income. When held in tax deferred all withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. If held in taxable then tax planning is impossible due to manager shenanigans, forced redemptions, and mandated recharacterizations. Never mind the inability to rebalance.

  Post: Better Than Buffett?

  Link to comment from March 25, 2023

• Having read both authors/studies and having gone from a 6 figure to a 5 figure income its clear that the things that can be counted don't count for as much as the things that can't be.

  Post: No Satisfaction

  Link to comment from March 25, 2023

• Nice article! The debate over bail-out vs bail-in seems moot to me. What's the fungible difference between deposits evenly distributed in $250k/$500k chunks throughout the banking system and the government declaring all deposits covered? And now banks have the BTFP facility My recurring bills are automated thru a brick & mortar FDIC account. Daily expenses such as food, fuel and fun are handled by an IntraFi account at a completely different type of TradFi institution that also has brick & mortar locations. The risk of a payment card outage is mediated by cash in a fire safe. Some might think keeping cash on hand is crazy and , of course, that's true right up until it isn't☺

  Post: Learning from Failure

  Link to comment from March 23, 2023

• After a series of increasingly leveraged buyouts by PE firms, ours was the Office from Hell. At 56, I told my boss that if the next 3 years are anything like the last 3 I'm not sure how much longer I'll be here. I cleaned out my office and computer files and began executing my written retirement plan while trudging thru the trenches for the next 2 years. Yet, when the nice HR lady told me I was redundant at age 58 it was still a surprise as I realized that this was the moment where a 25-year career ends. Now almost 4 years later, no alarm rings as I bound out of bed at ~7am knowing that all I need to do today is see what happens next! For example, today ,just in case☺, I bought "LONGEVITY LIFESTYLE by DESIGN. Thanks for that!

  Post: Reinventing Myself

  Link to comment from March 23, 2023

• There are at least 4 measures of robustness. 1. Monte Carlo. The better tools start with arithmetic means to arrive at geometrically compounded final values. It simulates volatility by randomizing rates of returns by a standard deviation. Provides a wide range of outcomes from mega-millionaire to flat broke. Estimates probability of success as % of times portfolio goes to zero. Disregards trends, momentum and the fact a portfolio may be too small to live on LONG before going to zero. Using a 15% standard deviation aim for 80% or better chance of success. More useful with 10-yrs or less to go. Cannot be used to compare trade-offs between major choices or sensitivity to changes in plan parameters.   2.Historical Backtest aka Aft-Cast. Uses actual market performance and inflation rates for rolling 1-year time periods going back 100+ years. The shortcomings are the world, regulations, investment products and markets have changed radically over just the past 30 years and there are only three 30-yr time frames between 1932 and 2022. Aim for 100% chance of success in all 1-year periods. Also cannot be used to compare trade-offs between major choices or sensitivity to changes in plan parameters.   3.Funded Ratios. These apply net-present-value calculations to a current snapshot of income, expenses and assets. Computes ratios of expected future income over expenses. Uses fixed assumptions for discount , tax and inflation rates. Aim for a ratio of 110% or higher with 5 years to go. 4. Cash Flow Projection. The most accurate method but cannot be used until actual income and expenses for first year of retirement are known +-10%. Can be used directly to create a retirement income plan aka paychecks. Works regardless of investor profile (safety-first or probabilistic) or investing strategy such as total return (selling shares) or taking income only from rents, SS, pensions, interest, dividends and normal distribution(no selling shares) . By age 72,  debt coverage ratio from reliable sources of income should be 50% or higher because by then taxes, social security, RMD’s and legacy issues are well understood.  

  Post: Kicking the Tires

  Link to comment from March 4, 2023