It was a pretty dramatic change of events and various Talking Heads have given advice about what to do. Some people may need money in the very near future like an annual withdrawal required from an investment account; if the market continues to go down, which is likely; it can be better to take The known versus the unknown. Sell and await a change in the market fundamentals. It made me think good deal about parents who saved for college only to see their college funds substantially reduced, and their child going to college in a few months. Or even retirees living on a 401(k) with diminished value. They may need to make decisions that they few they can accept if the market volatility continues which for now is highly likely. Wall Street of course has a vested interest into NOT recommending going to cash but to hold the course. It is easy to say when it is not your money. I am most concerned about this earning season, which begins reporting next week and runs for at least 30 days. All CEOs will be coming out with reduced projected earnings for the full year and the effect they believe tariffs will have on their business. I can’t see how any of that news is positive for the market. And if the tariffs continue, which seems to be likely at least in the near term of several months, I think the second quarter earnings will be even more damaging and reduces the likelihood of a market recovery prior to mid summer. Higher Inflation and consumers that CLOSE their wallets is certainly going to be observed. For that reason alone, it may be best to sell and await a more investable market after second quarter earnings are reported. It is pretty apparent without MAJOR tariff reversals we are already in a bear market and recession. We just needs the official numbers after the passage of time. I will offer this advice. I would get back in the market only when the stock chart fundamentals warrant and what I call an investable chart. Example of that would be the five day moving average more than the 20 day the 20 day above the 50 day and both the 20 and 50 day possibly above the 200 day moving average. At this time, none of that exists. We are just saw the 200 day moving average start declining which it is likely to continue to do as lower closing prices now replacing higher closing prices of 200 days ago. A declining 200 day moving average in the s&P 500 is a classic definition of a bear market. I do agree with Professor Siegel who said this is the worst economic/tariff decision in 95 years. good luck to all of us since we will likely need a healthy dose of good fortune.
Comments
It was a pretty dramatic change of events and various Talking Heads have given advice about what to do. Some people may need money in the very near future like an annual withdrawal required from an investment account; if the market continues to go down, which is likely; it can be better to take The known versus the unknown. Sell and await a change in the market fundamentals. It made me think good deal about parents who saved for college only to see their college funds substantially reduced, and their child going to college in a few months. Or even retirees living on a 401(k) with diminished value. They may need to make decisions that they few they can accept if the market volatility continues which for now is highly likely. Wall Street of course has a vested interest into NOT recommending going to cash but to hold the course. It is easy to say when it is not your money. I am most concerned about this earning season, which begins reporting next week and runs for at least 30 days. All CEOs will be coming out with reduced projected earnings for the full year and the effect they believe tariffs will have on their business. I can’t see how any of that news is positive for the market. And if the tariffs continue, which seems to be likely at least in the near term of several months, I think the second quarter earnings will be even more damaging and reduces the likelihood of a market recovery prior to mid summer. Higher Inflation and consumers that CLOSE their wallets is certainly going to be observed. For that reason alone, it may be best to sell and await a more investable market after second quarter earnings are reported. It is pretty apparent without MAJOR tariff reversals we are already in a bear market and recession. We just needs the official numbers after the passage of time. I will offer this advice. I would get back in the market only when the stock chart fundamentals warrant and what I call an investable chart. Example of that would be the five day moving average more than the 20 day the 20 day above the 50 day and both the 20 and 50 day possibly above the 200 day moving average. At this time, none of that exists. We are just saw the 200 day moving average start declining which it is likely to continue to do as lower closing prices now replacing higher closing prices of 200 days ago. A declining 200 day moving average in the s&P 500 is a classic definition of a bear market. I do agree with Professor Siegel who said this is the worst economic/tariff decision in 95 years. good luck to all of us since we will likely need a healthy dose of good fortune.
Post: Tariffs and our retirement assets
Link to comment from April 5, 2025