On life insurance: Something I notice most people don't account for is inflation. If you take out a $500,000 policy its purchasing power is $276,577 twenty years later at 3% average annual inflation (it could be better or worse).
Electronic switching displaced a lot of “plug a cable in to make the connection” phone operators. Imagine waiting for a connection to be made by cable for every smartphone call today.
I was always encouraged by the Charlie Munger comment: "Berkshire has not thrived in the past from making macroeconomic predictions. Therefore, we don't think a lot about it. We just try to do sound things and we figure economic trends will average out over the long run. We're agnostics on the economy."
This is an excellent recap of various "opinions" on Bitcoin. I don't gamble because I'm not good at it. Most people aren't but they don't realize it. When I talk to people who do gamble, I always hear about their winnings and not their losses. I guess that's human nature. Now, NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), that's where the money is! (humor intended)
Please pardon me for an extended post but Adam's good article reminded me of something my father wrote in the company newsletter in 1982. He would be impressed that we made it this far. PERSPECTIVE '82 In my forty-one years in this business, I have never seen anything like it. What am I talking about? Everything! I have never seen anything like everything. Perhaps that's why we are all so shaken and apprehensive. Thinking people generally agreed last year that our Nation was economically on the road to the never, never land. For years we had been consuming more than we produced and spending more than we earned. This course had reflected itself in tremendous additional debt and huge deficits in foreign trade, especially in oil. Imagine the price of oil rising from about $3 a barrel to over $30 a barrel from '71 through '80 with our foreign oil bill jumping from $3 billion a year to $60 billion. How do you like the idea of paying the value of a State, such as Iowa, to overseas oil merchants each year? You cannot escape the fact that government, business or people will eventually go bankrupt if spending consistently exceeds income. Ten years ago, the National debt was around $400 billion. Just recently it passed $1 trillion. How do you interpret that? The U. S. Treasury's need for $36 billion in the last quarter of this year and an additional $30 billion in the first quarter of 1982 is obvious testimony to years of accumulated "built-in" programs and deficit spending. Why is it the great minds of our times are unable to analyze our dilemma with some degree of unity. Isn't it true that lack of appropriate control now simply borrows from the quality and enjoyment of future life. What have you done for your grandchildren lately? Can economic irresponsibility be enjoyed forever or must it ultimately be repaid through increased taxes, high inflation or a lower standard of living? Could it be said that without correction we simply delay the day of reckoning. With correction, certainly, there will be sacrifice and pain. The catch to all of this of course is, do the American people and their elected political leaders agree that there is no quick fix to our protracted dilemma and are we willing to endure the pain for the time necessary for correction. Or shall we simply face up to the fact that we are incapable of more than a temporary inconvenience and a quick fix is all we are willing to accept right now. We will know as we move through 1982, an important election year. To say it another way, we know we have great numbers of grasshoppers. How many ants are left?
This comment reminded me of my father: "My advice: Choose a structure that you think will make sense regardless of who is in the White House or where the economy happens to stand at any given time."My father said, "Teach it to them in black and white, and let them shade it in themselves." I always enjoy the discussions on domestic/international allocation. It appears everyone here has "shaded it in" themselves.
John Kenneth Galbraith said that economists don't forecast because they know, but because they are asked. On October 17, 2008, Warren Buffett published an op-ed piece in the New York Times. He pointed out the financial world was in terrible shape and that things didn’t look very rosy at all. He said he was buying stocks in his personal account. He was only off by six months in calling the bottom. I'm waiting for Warren to write another article...
All I know is what I read in the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report: "I can’t remember a period since March 11, 1942 – the date of my first stock purchase – that I have not had a majority of my net worth in equities, U.S.-based equities. And so far, so good. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 100 on that fateful day in 1942 when I “pulled the trigger.” I was down about $5 by the time school was out. Soon, things turned around and now that index hovers around 38,000. America has been a terrific country for investors. All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one."
It just seems a little anti-patriotic to me. I keep reading that the U.S. is still desirable because of our regulations (which are not perfect) and the rule of law. Both of those points can be argued against too. Warren Buffett has branched outside the U.S. a little. Most recently in Japan and a big buy in Israel a few years ago (Iscar was the company). Still, he leans heavily toward the U.S. I think he even had an investment in Russia at one time and had problems way before the problems of today.
Comments
On life insurance: Something I notice most people don't account for is inflation. If you take out a $500,000 policy its purchasing power is $276,577 twenty years later at 3% average annual inflation (it could be better or worse).
Post: Room to Maneuver
Link to comment from July 5, 2025
Electronic switching displaced a lot of “plug a cable in to make the connection” phone operators. Imagine waiting for a connection to be made by cable for every smartphone call today.
Post: The Jevons Paradox
Link to comment from June 28, 2025
I was always encouraged by the Charlie Munger comment: "Berkshire has not thrived in the past from making macroeconomic predictions. Therefore, we don't think a lot about it. We just try to do sound things and we figure economic trends will average out over the long run. We're agnostics on the economy."
Post: Good in Theory
Link to comment from June 14, 2025
This is an excellent recap of various "opinions" on Bitcoin. I don't gamble because I'm not good at it. Most people aren't but they don't realize it. When I talk to people who do gamble, I always hear about their winnings and not their losses. I guess that's human nature. Now, NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), that's where the money is! (humor intended)
Post: Up Because It’s Up
Link to comment from May 31, 2025
Please pardon me for an extended post but Adam's good article reminded me of something my father wrote in the company newsletter in 1982. He would be impressed that we made it this far. PERSPECTIVE '82 In my forty-one years in this business, I have never seen anything like it. What am I talking about? Everything! I have never seen anything like everything. Perhaps that's why we are all so shaken and apprehensive. Thinking people generally agreed last year that our Nation was economically on the road to the never, never land. For years we had been consuming more than we produced and spending more than we earned. This course had reflected itself in tremendous additional debt and huge deficits in foreign trade, especially in oil. Imagine the price of oil rising from about $3 a barrel to over $30 a barrel from '71 through '80 with our foreign oil bill jumping from $3 billion a year to $60 billion. How do you like the idea of paying the value of a State, such as Iowa, to overseas oil merchants each year? You cannot escape the fact that government, business or people will eventually go bankrupt if spending consistently exceeds income. Ten years ago, the National debt was around $400 billion. Just recently it passed $1 trillion. How do you interpret that? The U. S. Treasury's need for $36 billion in the last quarter of this year and an additional $30 billion in the first quarter of 1982 is obvious testimony to years of accumulated "built-in" programs and deficit spending. Why is it the great minds of our times are unable to analyze our dilemma with some degree of unity. Isn't it true that lack of appropriate control now simply borrows from the quality and enjoyment of future life. What have you done for your grandchildren lately? Can economic irresponsibility be enjoyed forever or must it ultimately be repaid through increased taxes, high inflation or a lower standard of living? Could it be said that without correction we simply delay the day of reckoning. With correction, certainly, there will be sacrifice and pain. The catch to all of this of course is, do the American people and their elected political leaders agree that there is no quick fix to our protracted dilemma and are we willing to endure the pain for the time necessary for correction. Or shall we simply face up to the fact that we are incapable of more than a temporary inconvenience and a quick fix is all we are willing to accept right now. We will know as we move through 1982, an important election year. To say it another way, we know we have great numbers of grasshoppers. How many ants are left?
Post: Feeling Moody
Link to comment from May 24, 2025
This comment reminded me of my father: "My advice: Choose a structure that you think will make sense regardless of who is in the White House or where the economy happens to stand at any given time." My father said, "Teach it to them in black and white, and let them shade it in themselves." I always enjoy the discussions on domestic/international allocation. It appears everyone here has "shaded it in" themselves.
Post: No Exception
Link to comment from April 26, 2025
John Kenneth Galbraith said that economists don't forecast because they know, but because they are asked. On October 17, 2008, Warren Buffett published an op-ed piece in the New York Times. He pointed out the financial world was in terrible shape and that things didn’t look very rosy at all. He said he was buying stocks in his personal account. He was only off by six months in calling the bottom. I'm waiting for Warren to write another article...
Post: School Is In
Link to comment from April 19, 2025
Read a lot.
Post: Help Wanted
Link to comment from March 29, 2025
All I know is what I read in the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report: "I can’t remember a period since March 11, 1942 – the date of my first stock purchase – that I have not had a majority of my net worth in equities, U.S.-based equities. And so far, so good. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 100 on that fateful day in 1942 when I “pulled the trigger.” I was down about $5 by the time school was out. Soon, things turned around and now that index hovers around 38,000. America has been a terrific country for investors. All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one."
Post: Stuck at Home
Link to comment from November 23, 2024
It just seems a little anti-patriotic to me. I keep reading that the U.S. is still desirable because of our regulations (which are not perfect) and the rule of law. Both of those points can be argued against too. Warren Buffett has branched outside the U.S. a little. Most recently in Japan and a big buy in Israel a few years ago (Iscar was the company). Still, he leans heavily toward the U.S. I think he even had an investment in Russia at one time and had problems way before the problems of today.
Post: Stuck at Home
Link to comment from November 23, 2024