Crowd intelligence works if most people act independently to arrive at a decision. Crowds can go horribly wrong when they act as herds. It can cause either massive bubbles or undervaluation depending on sentiment. I do believe Markets can be irrational in short term but in long term tend to correct themselves.
John, Thanks for such a great article. Yes, I do have 40% of my stock portfolio in International. I also tilt my portfolio to a small cap. However, I like to understand how are people are allocating the Bond and cash part. What strategy and funds are they using?
Historically housing market (last 100 years) price rose little above the rate of inflation. There have been periods it has deviated but the market corrected itself over time.
https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted. I am not predicting that what will happen but useful to zoom out to look at historical perspective. Folks can find interesting data at
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Comments
Crowd intelligence works if most people act independently to arrive at a decision. Crowds can go horribly wrong when they act as herds. It can cause either massive bubbles or undervaluation depending on sentiment. I do believe Markets can be irrational in short term but in long term tend to correct themselves.
Post: Not So Efficient
Link to comment from December 5, 2021
Excellent article!
Post: Three Thoughts
Link to comment from August 17, 2021
John, Thanks for such a great article. Yes, I do have 40% of my stock portfolio in International. I also tilt my portfolio to a small cap. However, I like to understand how are people are allocating the Bond and cash part. What strategy and funds are they using?
Post: Leaving the Country
Link to comment from July 23, 2021
Historically housing market (last 100 years) price rose little above the rate of inflation. There have been periods it has deviated but the market corrected itself over time. https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted. I am not predicting that what will happen but useful to zoom out to look at historical perspective. Folks can find interesting data at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Post: Through the Roof
Link to comment from May 12, 2021