Is 4.7 % the NEW 4.0 % Safe Withdrawal Rate
64 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 8/17/2025
FIRST: David Powell on 8/17 | RECENT: Rick Connor on 9/4
re RDQ’s “down arrows” —> My 1 cent :
43 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 8/29/2025
FIRST: Jonathan Clements on 8/29 | RECENT: R Quinn on 9/1
Dividends Part II - At least
41 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 8/23/2025
FIRST: Mark Crothers on 8/23 | RECENT: L H on 8/29
A Rant about the Price of Gas, Part II: Live Experiment
12 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 6/13/2025
FIRST: Liam K on 6/13 | RECENT: mytimetotravel on 6/21
A Rant about the Price of Gas
51 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 5/2/2025
FIRST: R Quinn on 5/2 | RECENT: David Powell on 6/13
What exactly has to happen for a stocks value to go up or down?
9 replies
AUTHOR: Mark Bergman on 4/9/2025
FIRST: quan nguyen on 4/9 | RECENT: Sanjib Saha on 4/10
Comments
So fascinating that all of my comments have down arrows, but all of Jonathan‘s have up arrows. Has anybody ever learned anything by an up or down arrow? If we’re all on this site to learn, comments are certainly going to be more impactful than silly little arrows.
Post: re RDQ’s “down arrows” —> My 1 cent :
Link to comment from August 29, 2025
“Just think, no passport, no visa, no money exchange, no language barrier, etc.!” clarification: 1) you do need a passport to enter Canada 2) you DO need to change money as Canada uses Canadian Dollars, not American Dollars 3) if you visit Montreal, speaking French would be helpful
Post: What If You Don’t Want to See the World?
Link to comment from August 28, 2025
re RDQ’s “down arrows” —> My 1 cent : why is there “voting” on peoples comments ? If you have a comment, either positive or negative, post it. Otherwise, keep it to yourself if you don’t have the intestinal fortitude to post it publicly. Is this Facebook or Instragram ? Are we posting to get “Likes” ? It is childish and beneath the dignity of this blog site. Are we not adults here ? The ability to vote on comments should be removed.
Post: What If You Don’t Want to See the World?
Link to comment from August 28, 2025
Companies often reduce or stop paying dividends during a market drawdown.
Post: Dividends Part II – At least
Link to comment from August 23, 2025
Couldn’t agree more. I have two more years on my mortgage at 2,75 % A mortgage as a proxy for forced self investment is a horrible idea. It’s an illiquid asset and almost certainly grows far slower than being invested. I have peace of mind knowing that the sum I would need to pay off my mortgage now, is invested and earning far more than 2.75% for me. But what if the market goes down ? The majority of mortgages in the US are probably for 30 years, Per Ben Carlson, there are NO rolling 20 year periods where the market ended down, let alone rolling 30 year periods.
Post: A Contrarian View of a Mortgage
Link to comment from August 19, 2025
After rereading more closely, I agree. Consider my diatribe a small snapshot of the history of his study and its profound impact on personal finance and retiree spending.
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 18, 2025
Warning- I am going to ruffle some feathers here: Mike says:.So any suggested spending percentage just seems irrelevant. RDQ says : Indeed as you describe it, it is irrelevant I say baloney. If the 4% rule did not exist, how would you know how much you could safely spend without going broke ? Perhaps only 1 or 2 % is the right number ? Would that have affected your retirement lifestyle ? Do you know what retirees were spending prior to Bengen’s seminal 4% paper in 1993 or 1994 ? In interviews with him about his original study he relates how NOBODY knew what a SWR was, and advisors where commonly telling clients to spend 6,7,8,9, even 10 % annually, based on absolutely no data or evidence. Nobody’s spending choice has come from a vacuum of “what the hell, this is what I feel like spending, and whatever happens, happens” So while you might not adhere closely to a 4% SWR, there is no one on this blog who isn't aware of it, and hasn't in some fashion used it as a guideline, however tangentially they have chosen to spend their assets.
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 18, 2025
Excellent point : Trying to stretch a portfolio for every last cent of income is like reaching for yield with bonds: it works until suddenly, at the worst possible moment, it doesn’t.” Counterpoint: If one decides that 4% is an appropriate ballpark number based on the data, but feels a little skittish and wants to be conservative, they may choose to target around 3.5%. But, if 4.7% is now deemed to be the most appropriate number based on Bengens incorporation of broader diversification, etc, but one again is feeling skittish and conservative, they may choose 4.25%. Net result, increasing their withdrawal rate from 3.5 to 4.25%. As I noted below, this small percentage change can result in a substantial increase in annual spending. For the record, I/we spend quite a bit less than 4%, which I blame on my wife who is a VERY reluctant traveler !
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 18, 2025
Another link to show that spending declines with age: https://www.rand.org/news/press/2022/12/07/index1.html In addition, lets not forget the work by David Blanchett and the retirement spending smile.
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 17, 2025
Please see above or below depending on how you scroll. And to emphasis, this is not a new find/observation.
Post: Is 4.7% the New 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from August 17, 2025