History shows that most economic news have low correlation to what markets do in the next 1-4-12 weeks and why I hardly pay attention to them in regards to my portfolio.
On the other hand, I listen to every word the Fed chair says.
Economists forecasts over the years have been notoriously wrong.
It may sound like a lot, but once you run the numbers, it really isn’t. When you have millions, paying higher taxes comes with the territory. I’ll gladly accept that outcome compared to the alternative.
A couple of years ago, I began doing Roth conversions for both of us—about $80K per year. At that level, the impact on our future taxes was minimal.
After running the numbers again, my calculations suggested I needed to be more aggressive. To confirm, I reviewed the plan with Schwab Wealth Management and later consulted a CPA who specializes in investment-related tax planning.
After reviewing all of my accounts, the CPA told me my situation was very clear. He said he has handled at least 50 cases with similar numbers. His guidance was that households with $2–3 million in traditional IRAs (TIRAs) should consider converting $250K–$300K annually after age 65, especially in today’s relatively low-tax environment.
He also recommended bringing each TIRA down to roughly $200K per account, which would significantly reduce the risk of paying higher taxes later. My wife’s family has a history of living to 100, so if I were to pass away first, she could face substantially higher taxes as a single filer.
Based on that analysis, I increased my annual conversion from $80K to $280K.
As a result, our annual tax bill rose from roughly $30K to about $80K. However, this strategy is designed to achieve several important goals:
All taxes are paid first from our taxable account, which will gradually be depleted.
The additional taxes over the next 8-9 years will total about $500K, but that should be far less than the taxes we might otherwise pay over 30 years and increased tax rates.
The converted funds will end up in Roth accounts, where future growth and withdrawals should be tax-free (assuming tax laws remain unchanged).
I began the larger conversions last year. Next year I will finish converting my smaller TIRA after just 3 years. My wife’s conversions will begin in 2028 and should be completed within about six years.
By the time she reaches age 73, the conversions should be finished. At that point, our taxable account will be depleted, both TIRAs will be minimal or gone, and our future tax burden should be very small.
Why did you treat the decision as all-or-nothing?
It doesn’t have to be that way.
For example, if you had 60% of your portfolio in U.S. equities and 10% in international, you could have reallocated 10–20% of that U.S. portion into the U.K. or other international markets—without abandoning your overall structure.
You also didn’t have to leave the U.S. market to make a change. You could have stayed domestic and shifted from broad large-cap exposure to U.S. value.
The phrase “Choosing stability over speculation is the cornerstone of retirement planning” is often used as reassurance. But sometimes it becomes an excuse for rigidity. Non-flexible investors may ignore other asset classes for years—and eventually become unwilling to even evaluate them. A more balanced approach might be: Core (70–80%): Broad, diversified, long-term holdings aligned with your plan. Explore (20–30%): Tactical tilts, factor shifts (value, small cap), international opportunities, or active managers. You protect your foundation while allowing room for flexibility and adaptation. The key isn’t abandoning discipline—it’s avoiding rigidity.
The markets tend to signal leadership, rarely is the answer “all in” or “all out.” The key is recognizing when leadership changes and adjusting thoughtfully, not emotionally. What do I mean? From January 2000 to January 2010, the S&P 500 clearly lagged—it delivered a “lost decade” with negative total returns over that 10-year stretch. During that period, I allocated most of my portfolio to value stocks, small caps, and international equities. After 2010, U.S. large caps took the lead, so I shifted primarily into that segment. Since 2025, I’ve posted on several forums that value and international stocks appear to be leading again. Year-to-date performance supports that view.
For value exposure, examples include Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD).
For international exposure, Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) is a broad option.
I also like a few actively managed global funds such as First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX/SGIIX/FEGE), and Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund (TIBIX). The expense ratios are higher, but in some cases the active global allocation and risk management have justified the cost.
I’ve never fully accepted the idea that you must always remain strictly diversified across all categories. That can mean holding a lagging segment for a decade or more. At the same time, rigid diversification can prevent you from increasing exposure to areas that are clearly demonstrating sustained leadership. For me, it’s about being flexible, diversified enough to manage risk, but willing to tilt meaningfully when the evidence supports it.
It's not FreeRaxUsa. It is FreetaxUSA. I have been using TaxHawk for over 10 years. Both are web-based tax services owned by the same company.
For 2025 it got easier. I downloaded the PDFs for all 1099s from Schwab and uploaded them to TaxHawk. It was smart enough to fill in everything.
You describe the VIX well. The issue is that the article assumes the VIX can be used by itself to time the market.
What if I told you I already have an answer for market timing?
You shouldn’t expect one indicator, or even several, to be consistently accurate. I never did. Instead, I built a system that has helped me avoid every major market meltdown since I retired in 2018.
After hundreds of small, low-risk test trades, I came to a few key conclusions. First: start with the big picture and decide whether the situation is truly unique. Examples:
2018: Multiple Fed rate hikes
2020: COVID
2022: High inflation and a clearly signaled tightening cycle
2025: The April tariff scare
None of these were valuation-driven. In all of them, I was out of the market. Second: identify when to sell as risk escalates. I watch several real-time indicators:
VIX: When it reaches 25–30, I get ready. At 35–40, it’s usually too late, the damage is already done. The speed of the spike matters as much as the level.
MOVE Index: The bond market’s version of the VIX. A MOVE reading above ~110 signals elevated risk and tells me to prepare. Read https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter
Cross-market behavior: I review charts across multiple stocks and bond categories (I have a short list). If both equities and traditionally defensive areas are deteriorating, risk is high.
Two additional indicators I keep to myself.
This process relies heavily on experience and intuition developed from years of watching markets. It’s not based on valuations or anyone else’s opinion. All indicators must be real-time. Third: asset class matters. Lower-volatility categories, especially certain bond funds, are easier to monitor and trade. In my case, they’ve consistently given me at least a one-week warning before losses exceeded 1% from the most recent peak. Finally: being wrong is part of the model. If I’m wrong, I’m typically out for only a few days. If I’m right, I’m out for weeks (2018, 2020, 2025) or even months (January–November 2022). You can read more (here).
Who is writing checks anymore?
What is a lot of money? My money in all accounts at Schwab, Fidelity and one bank is invested at 99+%.
Any time I need money I sell a portion of my funds.
Supposed you have a constant $20K and miss the 4%. It's only $160. That's peanuts. I opened my first account at VG 30 years ago but closed it within 2 years. I got so much more at Fidelity and now mostly at Schwab. VG was and still behind.
Mmm...I "love" political posts.
Biden had the highest inflation and the first time bonds lost so much in one year in the last 4 decades.
We are not interested in politics, just investing.
Comments
History shows that most economic news have low correlation to what markets do in the next 1-4-12 weeks and why I hardly pay attention to them in regards to my portfolio. On the other hand, I listen to every word the Fed chair says. Economists forecasts over the years have been notoriously wrong.
Post: Economic Trends
Link to comment from March 14, 2026
It may sound like a lot, but once you run the numbers, it really isn’t. When you have millions, paying higher taxes comes with the territory. I’ll gladly accept that outcome compared to the alternative.
Post: Tax Smart Retirement
Link to comment from March 8, 2026
A couple of years ago, I began doing Roth conversions for both of us—about $80K per year. At that level, the impact on our future taxes was minimal. After running the numbers again, my calculations suggested I needed to be more aggressive. To confirm, I reviewed the plan with Schwab Wealth Management and later consulted a CPA who specializes in investment-related tax planning. After reviewing all of my accounts, the CPA told me my situation was very clear. He said he has handled at least 50 cases with similar numbers. His guidance was that households with $2–3 million in traditional IRAs (TIRAs) should consider converting $250K–$300K annually after age 65, especially in today’s relatively low-tax environment. He also recommended bringing each TIRA down to roughly $200K per account, which would significantly reduce the risk of paying higher taxes later. My wife’s family has a history of living to 100, so if I were to pass away first, she could face substantially higher taxes as a single filer. Based on that analysis, I increased my annual conversion from $80K to $280K. As a result, our annual tax bill rose from roughly $30K to about $80K. However, this strategy is designed to achieve several important goals:
- All taxes are paid first from our taxable account, which will gradually be depleted.
- The additional taxes over the next 8-9 years will total about $500K, but that should be far less than the taxes we might otherwise pay over 30 years and increased tax rates.
- The converted funds will end up in Roth accounts, where future growth and withdrawals should be tax-free (assuming tax laws remain unchanged).
I began the larger conversions last year. Next year I will finish converting my smaller TIRA after just 3 years. My wife’s conversions will begin in 2028 and should be completed within about six years. By the time she reaches age 73, the conversions should be finished. At that point, our taxable account will be depleted, both TIRAs will be minimal or gone, and our future tax burden should be very small.Post: Tax Smart Retirement
Link to comment from March 8, 2026
Why is 20% being used for generic exploration results in restructuring? If you are rigid, any change looks like a restructuring.
Post: The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
Why did you treat the decision as all-or-nothing? It doesn’t have to be that way. For example, if you had 60% of your portfolio in U.S. equities and 10% in international, you could have reallocated 10–20% of that U.S. portion into the U.K. or other international markets—without abandoning your overall structure. You also didn’t have to leave the U.S. market to make a change. You could have stayed domestic and shifted from broad large-cap exposure to U.S. value. The phrase “Choosing stability over speculation is the cornerstone of retirement planning” is often used as reassurance. But sometimes it becomes an excuse for rigidity. Non-flexible investors may ignore other asset classes for years—and eventually become unwilling to even evaluate them. A more balanced approach might be: Core (70–80%): Broad, diversified, long-term holdings aligned with your plan. Explore (20–30%): Tactical tilts, factor shifts (value, small cap), international opportunities, or active managers. You protect your foundation while allowing room for flexibility and adaptation. The key isn’t abandoning discipline—it’s avoiding rigidity.
Post: The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
The markets tend to signal leadership, rarely is the answer “all in” or “all out.” The key is recognizing when leadership changes and adjusting thoughtfully, not emotionally. What do I mean? From January 2000 to January 2010, the S&P 500 clearly lagged—it delivered a “lost decade” with negative total returns over that 10-year stretch. During that period, I allocated most of my portfolio to value stocks, small caps, and international equities. After 2010, U.S. large caps took the lead, so I shifted primarily into that segment. Since 2025, I’ve posted on several forums that value and international stocks appear to be leading again. Year-to-date performance supports that view. For value exposure, examples include Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). For international exposure, Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) is a broad option. I also like a few actively managed global funds such as First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX/SGIIX/FEGE), and Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund (TIBIX). The expense ratios are higher, but in some cases the active global allocation and risk management have justified the cost. I’ve never fully accepted the idea that you must always remain strictly diversified across all categories. That can mean holding a lagging segment for a decade or more. At the same time, rigid diversification can prevent you from increasing exposure to areas that are clearly demonstrating sustained leadership. For me, it’s about being flexible, diversified enough to manage risk, but willing to tilt meaningfully when the evidence supports it.
Post: Sell America
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
It's not FreeRaxUsa. It is FreetaxUSA. I have been using TaxHawk for over 10 years. Both are web-based tax services owned by the same company. For 2025 it got easier. I downloaded the PDFs for all 1099s from Schwab and uploaded them to TaxHawk. It was smart enough to fill in everything.
Post: Checks and Balances
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
You describe the VIX well. The issue is that the article assumes the VIX can be used by itself to time the market. What if I told you I already have an answer for market timing? You shouldn’t expect one indicator, or even several, to be consistently accurate. I never did. Instead, I built a system that has helped me avoid every major market meltdown since I retired in 2018. After hundreds of small, low-risk test trades, I came to a few key conclusions. First: start with the big picture and decide whether the situation is truly unique. Examples:
- 2018: Multiple Fed rate hikes
- 2020: COVID
- 2022: High inflation and a clearly signaled tightening cycle
- 2025: The April tariff scare
None of these were valuation-driven. In all of them, I was out of the market. Second: identify when to sell as risk escalates. I watch several real-time indicators:- VIX: When it reaches 25–30, I get ready. At 35–40, it’s usually too late, the damage is already done. The speed of the spike matters as much as the level.
- MOVE Index: The bond market’s version of the VIX. A MOVE reading above ~110 signals elevated risk and tells me to prepare. Read https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter
- Cross-market behavior: I review charts across multiple stocks and bond categories (I have a short list). If both equities and traditionally defensive areas are deteriorating, risk is high.
- Two additional indicators I keep to myself.
This process relies heavily on experience and intuition developed from years of watching markets. It’s not based on valuations or anyone else’s opinion. All indicators must be real-time. Third: asset class matters. Lower-volatility categories, especially certain bond funds, are easier to monitor and trade. In my case, they’ve consistently given me at least a one-week warning before losses exceeded 1% from the most recent peak. Finally: being wrong is part of the model. If I’m wrong, I’m typically out for only a few days. If I’m right, I’m out for weeks (2018, 2020, 2025) or even months (January–November 2022). You can read more (here).Post: Misleading Indicator
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
Who is writing checks anymore? What is a lot of money? My money in all accounts at Schwab, Fidelity and one bank is invested at 99+%. Any time I need money I sell a portion of my funds. Supposed you have a constant $20K and miss the 4%. It's only $160. That's peanuts. I opened my first account at VG 30 years ago but closed it within 2 years. I got so much more at Fidelity and now mostly at Schwab. VG was and still behind.
Post: Schwab or Vanguard?
Link to comment from January 18, 2026
Mmm...I "love" political posts. Biden had the highest inflation and the first time bonds lost so much in one year in the last 4 decades. We are not interested in politics, just investing.
Post: China Market Risk
Link to comment from January 18, 2026