Why did you treat the decision as all-or-nothing?
It doesn’t have to be that way.
For example, if you had 60% of your portfolio in U.S. equities and 10% in international, you could have reallocated 10–20% of that U.S. portion into the U.K. or other international markets—without abandoning your overall structure.
You also didn’t have to leave the U.S. market to make a change. You could have stayed domestic and shifted from broad large-cap exposure to U.S. value.
The phrase “Choosing stability over speculation is the cornerstone of retirement planning” is often used as reassurance. But sometimes it becomes an excuse for rigidity. Non-flexible investors may ignore other asset classes for years—and eventually become unwilling to even evaluate them. A more balanced approach might be: Core (70–80%): Broad, diversified, long-term holdings aligned with your plan. Explore (20–30%): Tactical tilts, factor shifts (value, small cap), international opportunities, or active managers. You protect your foundation while allowing room for flexibility and adaptation. The key isn’t abandoning discipline—it’s avoiding rigidity.
The markets tend to signal leadership, rarely is the answer “all in” or “all out.” The key is recognizing when leadership changes and adjusting thoughtfully, not emotionally. What do I mean? From January 2000 to January 2010, the S&P 500 clearly lagged—it delivered a “lost decade” with negative total returns over that 10-year stretch. During that period, I allocated most of my portfolio to value stocks, small caps, and international equities. After 2010, U.S. large caps took the lead, so I shifted primarily into that segment. Since 2025, I’ve posted on several forums that value and international stocks appear to be leading again. Year-to-date performance supports that view.
For value exposure, examples include Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD).
For international exposure, Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) is a broad option.
I also like a few actively managed global funds such as First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX/SGIIX/FEGE), and Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund (TIBIX). The expense ratios are higher, but in some cases the active global allocation and risk management have justified the cost.
I’ve never fully accepted the idea that you must always remain strictly diversified across all categories. That can mean holding a lagging segment for a decade or more. At the same time, rigid diversification can prevent you from increasing exposure to areas that are clearly demonstrating sustained leadership. For me, it’s about being flexible, diversified enough to manage risk, but willing to tilt meaningfully when the evidence supports it.
It's not FreeRaxUsa. It is FreetaxUSA. I have been using TaxHawk for over 10 years. Both are web-based tax services owned by the same company.
For 2025 it got easier. I downloaded the PDFs for all 1099s from Schwab and uploaded them to TaxHawk. It was smart enough to fill in everything.
You describe the VIX well. The issue is that the article assumes the VIX can be used by itself to time the market.
What if I told you I already have an answer for market timing?
You shouldn’t expect one indicator, or even several, to be consistently accurate. I never did. Instead, I built a system that has helped me avoid every major market meltdown since I retired in 2018.
After hundreds of small, low-risk test trades, I came to a few key conclusions. First: start with the big picture and decide whether the situation is truly unique. Examples:
2018: Multiple Fed rate hikes
2020: COVID
2022: High inflation and a clearly signaled tightening cycle
2025: The April tariff scare
None of these were valuation-driven. In all of them, I was out of the market. Second: identify when to sell as risk escalates. I watch several real-time indicators:
VIX: When it reaches 25–30, I get ready. At 35–40, it’s usually too late, the damage is already done. The speed of the spike matters as much as the level.
MOVE Index: The bond market’s version of the VIX. A MOVE reading above ~110 signals elevated risk and tells me to prepare. Read https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter
Cross-market behavior: I review charts across multiple stocks and bond categories (I have a short list). If both equities and traditionally defensive areas are deteriorating, risk is high.
Two additional indicators I keep to myself.
This process relies heavily on experience and intuition developed from years of watching markets. It’s not based on valuations or anyone else’s opinion. All indicators must be real-time. Third: asset class matters. Lower-volatility categories, especially certain bond funds, are easier to monitor and trade. In my case, they’ve consistently given me at least a one-week warning before losses exceeded 1% from the most recent peak. Finally: being wrong is part of the model. If I’m wrong, I’m typically out for only a few days. If I’m right, I’m out for weeks (2018, 2020, 2025) or even months (January–November 2022). You can read more (here).
Who is writing checks anymore?
What is a lot of money? My money in all accounts at Schwab, Fidelity and one bank is invested at 99+%.
Any time I need money I sell a portion of my funds.
Supposed you have a constant $20K and miss the 4%. It's only $160. That's peanuts. I opened my first account at VG 30 years ago but closed it within 2 years. I got so much more at Fidelity and now mostly at Schwab. VG was and still behind.
Mmm...I "love" political posts.
Biden had the highest inflation and the first time bonds lost so much in one year in the last 4 decades.
We are not interested in politics, just investing.
Gold may lack intrinsic value, but that doesn’t mean investors should limit themselves to 100% index funds or overly simple strategies.
Simple investing works well for most people—but not for everyone. My own risk/reward approach has been shaped in part by Warren Buffett:
Rule No. 1: Never lose money.
Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.
Rule No. 3: Diversification is protection against ignorance.
I’ve added a fourth rule: momentum.
Buffett himself once said he wouldn’t invest in high-tech companies—yet later bought Apple, which grew to more than 45% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio.
Similarly, Jean-Marie Eveillard, the legendary manager of SGIIX, allocated roughly 10% to gold-related positions for decades.
Markets present multiple opportunities each year across specific categories and sectors. A practical approach can be holding 70–80% in core positions and 20–30% in “explore” or opportunistic funds.
And while gold may not have much practical use, silver certainly does—with extensive industrial applications in electronics, solar panels, water purification, mirrors, batteries, and more.
In 2025, GLD gained over 63%, while SLV surged more than 133%.
Which raises a fair question: why did so many investors stick with SPY or VOO instead of QQQ, when the technology revolution has clearly dominated global markets for decades? If you want to follow Bogle and buy and hold just 3 funds, why bother discussing investment at all?
There are so many moving parts and individual situations to make reliable comments.
Add to it the fact that the future is unknown and you get more complications.
Single or married, when you or wife will take SS,
how much you already have in taxable, Roth IRA, TIRA
What state you live in which affects state tax
Until what age are you going to live. Example: if you 65 and have $500K in TIRA conversation up to IRMMA makes sense. If you have 1-2 millions, converting to 22% brackets make sense too based on... your individual situations. The whole thing of SS, converting, LTC, depends on individual situations and predicting the future. I made lots of calculations. Then I met a CPA and he verified that we should convert about $250-280K annually, otherwise we will pay a lot more in the next 20 years. If we live 25-30 years and one of us is gone, taxes will be worse. Our portfolio will be similar or bigger in 20 years with min taxes.
Comments
Why is 20% being used for generic exploration results in restructuring? If you are rigid, any change looks like a restructuring.
Post: The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
Why did you treat the decision as all-or-nothing? It doesn’t have to be that way. For example, if you had 60% of your portfolio in U.S. equities and 10% in international, you could have reallocated 10–20% of that U.S. portion into the U.K. or other international markets—without abandoning your overall structure. You also didn’t have to leave the U.S. market to make a change. You could have stayed domestic and shifted from broad large-cap exposure to U.S. value. The phrase “Choosing stability over speculation is the cornerstone of retirement planning” is often used as reassurance. But sometimes it becomes an excuse for rigidity. Non-flexible investors may ignore other asset classes for years—and eventually become unwilling to even evaluate them. A more balanced approach might be: Core (70–80%): Broad, diversified, long-term holdings aligned with your plan. Explore (20–30%): Tactical tilts, factor shifts (value, small cap), international opportunities, or active managers. You protect your foundation while allowing room for flexibility and adaptation. The key isn’t abandoning discipline—it’s avoiding rigidity.
Post: The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
The markets tend to signal leadership, rarely is the answer “all in” or “all out.” The key is recognizing when leadership changes and adjusting thoughtfully, not emotionally. What do I mean? From January 2000 to January 2010, the S&P 500 clearly lagged—it delivered a “lost decade” with negative total returns over that 10-year stretch. During that period, I allocated most of my portfolio to value stocks, small caps, and international equities. After 2010, U.S. large caps took the lead, so I shifted primarily into that segment. Since 2025, I’ve posted on several forums that value and international stocks appear to be leading again. Year-to-date performance supports that view. For value exposure, examples include Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). For international exposure, Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) is a broad option. I also like a few actively managed global funds such as First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX/SGIIX/FEGE), and Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund (TIBIX). The expense ratios are higher, but in some cases the active global allocation and risk management have justified the cost. I’ve never fully accepted the idea that you must always remain strictly diversified across all categories. That can mean holding a lagging segment for a decade or more. At the same time, rigid diversification can prevent you from increasing exposure to areas that are clearly demonstrating sustained leadership. For me, it’s about being flexible, diversified enough to manage risk, but willing to tilt meaningfully when the evidence supports it.
Post: Sell America
Link to comment from February 15, 2026
It's not FreeRaxUsa. It is FreetaxUSA. I have been using TaxHawk for over 10 years. Both are web-based tax services owned by the same company. For 2025 it got easier. I downloaded the PDFs for all 1099s from Schwab and uploaded them to TaxHawk. It was smart enough to fill in everything.
Post: Checks and Balances
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
You describe the VIX well. The issue is that the article assumes the VIX can be used by itself to time the market. What if I told you I already have an answer for market timing? You shouldn’t expect one indicator, or even several, to be consistently accurate. I never did. Instead, I built a system that has helped me avoid every major market meltdown since I retired in 2018. After hundreds of small, low-risk test trades, I came to a few key conclusions. First: start with the big picture and decide whether the situation is truly unique. Examples:
- 2018: Multiple Fed rate hikes
- 2020: COVID
- 2022: High inflation and a clearly signaled tightening cycle
- 2025: The April tariff scare
None of these were valuation-driven. In all of them, I was out of the market. Second: identify when to sell as risk escalates. I watch several real-time indicators:- VIX: When it reaches 25–30, I get ready. At 35–40, it’s usually too late, the damage is already done. The speed of the spike matters as much as the level.
- MOVE Index: The bond market’s version of the VIX. A MOVE reading above ~110 signals elevated risk and tells me to prepare. Read https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter
- Cross-market behavior: I review charts across multiple stocks and bond categories (I have a short list). If both equities and traditionally defensive areas are deteriorating, risk is high.
- Two additional indicators I keep to myself.
This process relies heavily on experience and intuition developed from years of watching markets. It’s not based on valuations or anyone else’s opinion. All indicators must be real-time. Third: asset class matters. Lower-volatility categories, especially certain bond funds, are easier to monitor and trade. In my case, they’ve consistently given me at least a one-week warning before losses exceeded 1% from the most recent peak. Finally: being wrong is part of the model. If I’m wrong, I’m typically out for only a few days. If I’m right, I’m out for weeks (2018, 2020, 2025) or even months (January–November 2022). You can read more (here).Post: Misleading Indicator
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
Who is writing checks anymore? What is a lot of money? My money in all accounts at Schwab, Fidelity and one bank is invested at 99+%. Any time I need money I sell a portion of my funds. Supposed you have a constant $20K and miss the 4%. It's only $160. That's peanuts. I opened my first account at VG 30 years ago but closed it within 2 years. I got so much more at Fidelity and now mostly at Schwab. VG was and still behind.
Post: Schwab or Vanguard?
Link to comment from January 18, 2026
Mmm...I "love" political posts. Biden had the highest inflation and the first time bonds lost so much in one year in the last 4 decades. We are not interested in politics, just investing.
Post: China Market Risk
Link to comment from January 18, 2026
SLV continues to shine.
Post: Gold Isn’t Special
Link to comment from January 13, 2026
Gold may lack intrinsic value, but that doesn’t mean investors should limit themselves to 100% index funds or overly simple strategies. Simple investing works well for most people—but not for everyone. My own risk/reward approach has been shaped in part by Warren Buffett:
- Rule No. 1: Never lose money.
- Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.
- Rule No. 3: Diversification is protection against ignorance.
I’ve added a fourth rule: momentum. Buffett himself once said he wouldn’t invest in high-tech companies—yet later bought Apple, which grew to more than 45% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio. Similarly, Jean-Marie Eveillard, the legendary manager of SGIIX, allocated roughly 10% to gold-related positions for decades. Markets present multiple opportunities each year across specific categories and sectors. A practical approach can be holding 70–80% in core positions and 20–30% in “explore” or opportunistic funds. And while gold may not have much practical use, silver certainly does—with extensive industrial applications in electronics, solar panels, water purification, mirrors, batteries, and more. In 2025, GLD gained over 63%, while SLV surged more than 133%. Which raises a fair question: why did so many investors stick with SPY or VOO instead of QQQ, when the technology revolution has clearly dominated global markets for decades? If you want to follow Bogle and buy and hold just 3 funds, why bother discussing investment at all?Post: Gold Isn’t Special
Link to comment from January 11, 2026
There are so many moving parts and individual situations to make reliable comments. Add to it the fact that the future is unknown and you get more complications. Single or married, when you or wife will take SS, how much you already have in taxable, Roth IRA, TIRA What state you live in which affects state tax Until what age are you going to live. Example: if you 65 and have $500K in TIRA conversation up to IRMMA makes sense. If you have 1-2 millions, converting to 22% brackets make sense too based on... your individual situations. The whole thing of SS, converting, LTC, depends on individual situations and predicting the future. I made lots of calculations. Then I met a CPA and he verified that we should convert about $250-280K annually, otherwise we will pay a lot more in the next 20 years. If we live 25-30 years and one of us is gone, taxes will be worse. Our portfolio will be similar or bigger in 20 years with min taxes.
Post: Calculating the Maximum Income While Staying in the 12% Tax Bracket
Link to comment from December 13, 2025