1.The argument you use that others catch up has been made for years. Objectively, Tesla’s lead continues to grow. It is innovating the fastest of any OEM. If you speak with people in the industry, their culture is of 5-year cycles of car design. Tesla makes design changes daily. 2.EV buyer affluence is another argument people have been making for years. ANY new technology starts in the upper strata of income and moves downwards as Wright’s law takes hold. The model 3 is now available for $35,500 after federal tax credit while the average new car is the US approaches $50,000. Hertz CEO recently noted that Tesla’s have 50-60% lower maintenance costs (of cars driven hard in their fleet) making total cost of owner significantly less than even a corolla over a 6-year period. Hold the car longer than that and it is even more pronounced.Tesla has the highest profitability in the industry by a large and historic margin. And it is becoming more efficient by the day. This lead will only grow. Yes - it may choose to lower prices costing is a somewhat lower auto gross margin. That will hit other EV makers even harder. See Ford’s recent price drops on the Mach E. How much is Ford making on those cars after the price drop?? 3.Range anxiety is an old tired argument. EV’s routinely go over 300 miles. I drove from Texas to NY and back in an X. It was simply not an issue. No more than running out of gas on the side of the road. If you are worried about range, you have not driven a Tesla and EV’s are new to you. 4.If you think all EV charging networks are the same, I urge you to get a Tesla and a Porsche Taycan or a Bolt. You will very quickly understand that they are not. From your comments, it is clear that you likely have not spent significant time in a Tesla nor compared it first hand to everything else out there. That’s the reason I urged people to gain knowledge first hand. It will wipe out almost all the arguments you made. If you want to continue to believe that the old legacy companies will prosper as they always have, no one is going to get in your way. If you are actually curious as to why this make not be the case, maybe start asking: Is it possible Tesla has a 3-5-year lead and is actually growing that lead? Could that be happening? Then see where the objective trending data lead.
Alex Voigt says Toyota is a dead man walking because he has spent thousands of hours looking into the tiny details and understands the big story. If you think Toyota has any shot against Tesla, you may want to answer the following objective questions: 1.How much time does it take Tesla to manufacture a car vs Toyota (hint, it is more than a factor of 2 *less*. Yes, that’s correct. In the auto industry, when shaving off minutes in manufacturing time is a significant achievement, Tesla has shaved off 10’s of hours. 2.What is the role of the gigacasting machine. Hint, it saves 260 robots, significant manufacturing space, simplifies logistics lines, allows a 30% weight savings in the frame, less material, lower cost, faster to manufacture, and stronger 3.If you want to travel more than 300 miles, which is the only company with a supercharging network across the entire US and Europe that offers a seamless experience? 4.Which network allows you to charge your battery 50% in 15 minutes with bathrooms and restaurants nearby. Hint, it’s not Toyoya. 5.Which company offers a car which actually updates and improves it features for free after you’ve purchased it via over-the-air updates that occur seamlessly? Hint, it’s not Toyota. 5.Which company invented the octovalve? What are the implications for range and efficiency with the octovalve? 6.Which municipalities around the world have legislated *no* ICE vehicles sales as of 2035? Which as of 2030? Which have interim mandates by 2026 and 2030? 2026 is 3 years away, 2035 is 12 years away. Even Toyota’s own PR says at a *maximum* they will make 200,000 EV’s in the US in 2026. This year Tesla will make 1.8M (globally) 7.Who has the highest profit per vehicle and by how much? For Toyota, please calculate their profit per EV because their ICE profits will no longer matter. 8.Whose in-house insurance program has a growth rate of 50% per quarter, yes quarter. 9.Whose superchargers can be installed at 1/5 the cost of the competition yet charge cars >5x as fast? 10.Which OEM invented its own batteries (4680’s), electrodes, manufacturing process, and is actually making its own highly efficient batteries *today*? Those other makers may claim they are making their own batteries, however the factories won’t be functional for years and they are JV’s with their partner actually doing the work. There are over 500 more of these questions to go if you want to understand how Toyota is *objectively* and measurably hopelessly behind. By this time, we know that legacy makers cannot simply flip and switch and start making EV In scale. It just doesn’t work that way and if you’ve watched the path of every single legacy maker, that becomes clear. There are completely different competencies required to make EV’s, source battery materials, tweak battery management software to maximize range, and keep costs down as the batteries are the most expensive cost of the car. Sure, the Chinese makers will have a large part of the EV market but the total addressable market is blowing up to replace 100% of ICE sales by 2035. Finally - and most importantly - the customer experience. If you have any doubt of the future, please do yourself a favor and rent a Tesla at Hertz, or rent one through Turo. Spend a good 3 days (or more) understanding the experience of having a Tesla. Compare it to other EV’s on the market *first hand*. Why is it worth your effort, because in ten years, you will look back and have an Apple/iPhone moment and wish you had. Do the research. Get the experience. Decide for yourself if the people with Tesla’s are crazy cult members, or if maybe, just maybe there is a reason that Tesla’s annual growth is 50% while almost every legacy maker is shrinking. Please don’t listen to this author - or to me. Read quarterly statements, looks at revenue, profit, cash flows. Looks at the trends. Go to goodcarbadcar to see what Toyota’s sales have been doing the past six years vs Tesla’s sales. Drive the cars. Talk to new buyers. Do your own research. If you still have no idea of the future, buy index funds. But it just may become clear to you what the futures brings after you do proper research.
I’m sure your father did well for the times and the clientele. Meanwhile, you have a full career - and an eminent one at that. Your real estate investing is a 2nd full-time endeavor. Of course you are going to have less time to read the fine print on the insurance policies; that’s a cost-benefit equation just like anything else. Give up your entire career, and sure, you’ll pick up the fact that there was no coverage for lost rents, pennies compared to what you have gained from your primary career. Also, the times have changed, both in terms of how clientele expect to be managed, and legal protection for renters which can allow them to live for months without paying rent before eviction proceedings can take place. Which is all to say, it definitely pays to choose renters who will partner to make this as pleasurable (or painless) an experience as possible. My wife and I have two rental properties in a major city. Due to coop and condo board approval procedures, they will sit empty 1-2 months even in the best of circumstances between renters. A simple cost analysis demonstrates that it’s much better to raise the rent less and keep the renters longer - not to mention the hours of work required to acquire new renters, prepare the apartments, and file the paperwork. It goes without saying that there are areas where firm limits are imperative. Recognizing and reacting to how particular renters push these limits is important. But there is also joy from building trusting relationships with our renters. After years, I know they have my back and I have theirs.
95% accurate and good insights. As far as seeing the most acute first, since the 1970’s, stats are basically unchanged showing that 80% or so of people get discharged, and 20% or more need no testing or only one test - like a rapid strep, Covid, etc.. So most well-run ED’s don’t make those patients wait 4 hours. They have an entirely different team (or for the big ED’s several teams) just taking care of lower acuity people to get them in and out quickly and keep them from entering deeper into the ED where the sicker patients are. Other ED’s have a provider in triage getting testing started within minutes of arrival so by the time they see a physician or advanced practice provider (NP, PA) the results are ready and the patient can be rapidly treated and discharged. As far as out-of-network bills, congress recently passed the No Surprises act which has significantly altered the landscape of emergency medicine billing.
Good advice. and if you own a Tesla, use Tesla insurance. My insurance broker was shocked when I dropped my policy with no warning. Said “but we got you the least expensive one.” Nope. Tesla insurance started out 27% less expensive for better coverage and has dropped further since then based on my daily safe driving score which tracks 5 factors including hard braking, aggressive turns, unsafe following.
Just buy a base model 3 Tesla? Crazy?
Not at all. Teslas are the 4 safest cars on the road - by far! Charge at home. Never go to a gas station again. Never deal with a dealer again. Almost no maintenance. TCO (total cost of ownership) after 4 years is less than a Camry. After 9, less than an Accord. For a car that drives like a BMW M3. Over the air updates - capabilities constantly improving for free!! Incredible Supercharging network. Easily drive long distance without thinking about it. Just get a Tesla Model 3 and keep
it for 12 years. You’ll be much much happier. Completely different paradigm.
Comments:
1.The argument you use that others catch up has been made for years. Objectively, Tesla’s lead continues to grow. It is innovating the fastest of any OEM. If you speak with people in the industry, their culture is of 5-year cycles of car design. Tesla makes design changes daily. 2.EV buyer affluence is another argument people have been making for years. ANY new technology starts in the upper strata of income and moves downwards as Wright’s law takes hold. The model 3 is now available for $35,500 after federal tax credit while the average new car is the US approaches $50,000. Hertz CEO recently noted that Tesla’s have 50-60% lower maintenance costs (of cars driven hard in their fleet) making total cost of owner significantly less than even a corolla over a 6-year period. Hold the car longer than that and it is even more pronounced.Tesla has the highest profitability in the industry by a large and historic margin. And it is becoming more efficient by the day. This lead will only grow. Yes - it may choose to lower prices costing is a somewhat lower auto gross margin. That will hit other EV makers even harder. See Ford’s recent price drops on the Mach E. How much is Ford making on those cars after the price drop?? 3.Range anxiety is an old tired argument. EV’s routinely go over 300 miles. I drove from Texas to NY and back in an X. It was simply not an issue. No more than running out of gas on the side of the road. If you are worried about range, you have not driven a Tesla and EV’s are new to you. 4.If you think all EV charging networks are the same, I urge you to get a Tesla and a Porsche Taycan or a Bolt. You will very quickly understand that they are not. From your comments, it is clear that you likely have not spent significant time in a Tesla nor compared it first hand to everything else out there. That’s the reason I urged people to gain knowledge first hand. It will wipe out almost all the arguments you made. If you want to continue to believe that the old legacy companies will prosper as they always have, no one is going to get in your way. If you are actually curious as to why this make not be the case, maybe start asking: Is it possible Tesla has a 3-5-year lead and is actually growing that lead? Could that be happening? Then see where the objective trending data lead.
Post: No Simple Stories
Link to comment from February 22, 2023
Alex Voigt says Toyota is a dead man walking because he has spent thousands of hours looking into the tiny details and understands the big story. If you think Toyota has any shot against Tesla, you may want to answer the following objective questions: 1.How much time does it take Tesla to manufacture a car vs Toyota (hint, it is more than a factor of 2 *less*. Yes, that’s correct. In the auto industry, when shaving off minutes in manufacturing time is a significant achievement, Tesla has shaved off 10’s of hours. 2.What is the role of the gigacasting machine. Hint, it saves 260 robots, significant manufacturing space, simplifies logistics lines, allows a 30% weight savings in the frame, less material, lower cost, faster to manufacture, and stronger 3.If you want to travel more than 300 miles, which is the only company with a supercharging network across the entire US and Europe that offers a seamless experience? 4.Which network allows you to charge your battery 50% in 15 minutes with bathrooms and restaurants nearby. Hint, it’s not Toyoya. 5.Which company offers a car which actually updates and improves it features for free after you’ve purchased it via over-the-air updates that occur seamlessly? Hint, it’s not Toyota. 5.Which company invented the octovalve? What are the implications for range and efficiency with the octovalve? 6.Which municipalities around the world have legislated *no* ICE vehicles sales as of 2035? Which as of 2030? Which have interim mandates by 2026 and 2030? 2026 is 3 years away, 2035 is 12 years away. Even Toyota’s own PR says at a *maximum* they will make 200,000 EV’s in the US in 2026. This year Tesla will make 1.8M (globally) 7.Who has the highest profit per vehicle and by how much? For Toyota, please calculate their profit per EV because their ICE profits will no longer matter. 8.Whose in-house insurance program has a growth rate of 50% per quarter, yes quarter. 9.Whose superchargers can be installed at 1/5 the cost of the competition yet charge cars >5x as fast? 10.Which OEM invented its own batteries (4680’s), electrodes, manufacturing process, and is actually making its own highly efficient batteries *today*? Those other makers may claim they are making their own batteries, however the factories won’t be functional for years and they are JV’s with their partner actually doing the work. There are over 500 more of these questions to go if you want to understand how Toyota is *objectively* and measurably hopelessly behind. By this time, we know that legacy makers cannot simply flip and switch and start making EV In scale. It just doesn’t work that way and if you’ve watched the path of every single legacy maker, that becomes clear. There are completely different competencies required to make EV’s, source battery materials, tweak battery management software to maximize range, and keep costs down as the batteries are the most expensive cost of the car. Sure, the Chinese makers will have a large part of the EV market but the total addressable market is blowing up to replace 100% of ICE sales by 2035. Finally - and most importantly - the customer experience. If you have any doubt of the future, please do yourself a favor and rent a Tesla at Hertz, or rent one through Turo. Spend a good 3 days (or more) understanding the experience of having a Tesla. Compare it to other EV’s on the market *first hand*. Why is it worth your effort, because in ten years, you will look back and have an Apple/iPhone moment and wish you had. Do the research. Get the experience. Decide for yourself if the people with Tesla’s are crazy cult members, or if maybe, just maybe there is a reason that Tesla’s annual growth is 50% while almost every legacy maker is shrinking. Please don’t listen to this author - or to me. Read quarterly statements, looks at revenue, profit, cash flows. Looks at the trends. Go to goodcarbadcar to see what Toyota’s sales have been doing the past six years vs Tesla’s sales. Drive the cars. Talk to new buyers. Do your own research. If you still have no idea of the future, buy index funds. But it just may become clear to you what the futures brings after you do proper research.
Post: No Simple Stories
Link to comment from February 22, 2023
I’m sure your father did well for the times and the clientele. Meanwhile, you have a full career - and an eminent one at that. Your real estate investing is a 2nd full-time endeavor. Of course you are going to have less time to read the fine print on the insurance policies; that’s a cost-benefit equation just like anything else. Give up your entire career, and sure, you’ll pick up the fact that there was no coverage for lost rents, pennies compared to what you have gained from your primary career. Also, the times have changed, both in terms of how clientele expect to be managed, and legal protection for renters which can allow them to live for months without paying rent before eviction proceedings can take place. Which is all to say, it definitely pays to choose renters who will partner to make this as pleasurable (or painless) an experience as possible. My wife and I have two rental properties in a major city. Due to coop and condo board approval procedures, they will sit empty 1-2 months even in the best of circumstances between renters. A simple cost analysis demonstrates that it’s much better to raise the rent less and keep the renters longer - not to mention the hours of work required to acquire new renters, prepare the apartments, and file the paperwork. It goes without saying that there are areas where firm limits are imperative. Recognizing and reacting to how particular renters push these limits is important. But there is also joy from building trusting relationships with our renters. After years, I know they have my back and I have theirs.
Post: The Humble Landlord
Link to comment from July 30, 2022
95% accurate and good insights. As far as seeing the most acute first, since the 1970’s, stats are basically unchanged showing that 80% or so of people get discharged, and 20% or more need no testing or only one test - like a rapid strep, Covid, etc.. So most well-run ED’s don’t make those patients wait 4 hours. They have an entirely different team (or for the big ED’s several teams) just taking care of lower acuity people to get them in and out quickly and keep them from entering deeper into the ED where the sicker patients are. Other ED’s have a provider in triage getting testing started within minutes of arrival so by the time they see a physician or advanced practice provider (NP, PA) the results are ready and the patient can be rapidly treated and discharged. As far as out-of-network bills, congress recently passed the No Surprises act which has significantly altered the landscape of emergency medicine billing.
Post: When It’s Urgent
Link to comment from June 22, 2022
Good advice. and if you own a Tesla, use Tesla insurance. My insurance broker was shocked when I dropped my policy with no warning. Said “but we got you the least expensive one.” Nope. Tesla insurance started out 27% less expensive for better coverage and has dropped further since then based on my daily safe driving score which tracks 5 factors including hard braking, aggressive turns, unsafe following.
Post: Credit Where It’s Due
Link to comment from March 23, 2022
Just buy a base model 3 Tesla? Crazy? Not at all. Teslas are the 4 safest cars on the road - by far! Charge at home. Never go to a gas station again. Never deal with a dealer again. Almost no maintenance. TCO (total cost of ownership) after 4 years is less than a Camry. After 9, less than an Accord. For a car that drives like a BMW M3. Over the air updates - capabilities constantly improving for free!! Incredible Supercharging network. Easily drive long distance without thinking about it. Just get a Tesla Model 3 and keep it for 12 years. You’ll be much much happier. Completely different paradigm.
Post: Fit to Be Bought
Link to comment from October 23, 2021