Jonathan, so sorry to hear this news. But I want to say thank you for the help you have provided me. I began reading your Getting Going content in the WSJ in the 90s and I'm confident I have read every one of those articles. The wisdom I have gained from your writing has almost single-handedly caused my personal investment success over the last 30ish years. Thank you!
Hi Nate, Regarding your point #1, I looked at the assumed 4.5% rate of return as a "real" rate of return (after inflation). I think over a 50+ year timeframe it is not unreasonable to assume a 4.5% annual return above inflation. Therefore, I view the $10 million figure as being in "today's dollars".
Nice work, John. Instead of knowing "he retires a wealthy man in 2013", it would be interesting to know the actual numbers in Bob's scenario. How much did he invest at each market high? What was his rate of return? What was his ending balance?
When I choose my asset allocations, I pay no attention to where others project the markets are going in the short term. My asset allocation decisions are based solely on my risk tolerance and the time horizon of my goals. In my view, this does not meet the definition of market timing.
Point taken regarding size of the bond market. But John's question regarding Mr. Lim's actions remains. "Isn’t this a case of thinking you’ve got something figured out that this enormous market, with highly sophisticated investors, doesn’t?"
Mr. Lim reducing his bond exposure by 63% feels a little like market timing to me. No offense but it seems Mr. Lim thinks he knows more than the market when he says the market's 10 year inflation outlook of 2.8% is incorrect. A person shouldn't try to market time the equity market. Is the bond market different? Or am I missing something?
Comments
Jonathan, so sorry to hear this news. But I want to say thank you for the help you have provided me. I began reading your Getting Going content in the WSJ in the 90s and I'm confident I have read every one of those articles. The wisdom I have gained from your writing has almost single-handedly caused my personal investment success over the last 30ish years. Thank you!
Post: The C Word
Link to comment from June 25, 2024
Hi Nate, Regarding your point #1, I looked at the assumed 4.5% rate of return as a "real" rate of return (after inflation). I think over a 50+ year timeframe it is not unreasonable to assume a 4.5% annual return above inflation. Therefore, I view the $10 million figure as being in "today's dollars".
Post: A Path to $10 Million
Link to comment from February 15, 2023
Nice work, John. Instead of knowing "he retires a wealthy man in 2013", it would be interesting to know the actual numbers in Bob's scenario. How much did he invest at each market high? What was his rate of return? What was his ending balance?
Post: Buy High Sell Never
Link to comment from May 28, 2022
When I choose my asset allocations, I pay no attention to where others project the markets are going in the short term. My asset allocation decisions are based solely on my risk tolerance and the time horizon of my goals. In my view, this does not meet the definition of market timing.
Post: Ditching Bonds
Link to comment from April 10, 2022
Point taken regarding size of the bond market. But John's question regarding Mr. Lim's actions remains. "Isn’t this a case of thinking you’ve got something figured out that this enormous market, with highly sophisticated investors, doesn’t?"
Post: Ditching Bonds
Link to comment from April 10, 2022
I read your comment after I made my comment. I'm 100% on board with your thoughts.
Post: Ditching Bonds
Link to comment from April 9, 2022
Mr. Lim reducing his bond exposure by 63% feels a little like market timing to me. No offense but it seems Mr. Lim thinks he knows more than the market when he says the market's 10 year inflation outlook of 2.8% is incorrect. A person shouldn't try to market time the equity market. Is the bond market different? Or am I missing something?
Post: Ditching Bonds
Link to comment from April 9, 2022