Many folks are unnerved by what’s happening in Washington, DC, and predictions of doom are widespread. Are you now in the forecasting game? Let’s find out how good you are. Six months from now—as of Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025—what’s your best guess for these eight:
- Trailing 12-month inflation? Current reading is 2.8%.
- Unemployment? Today’s reading is 4.1%.
- Whether we’re widely considered to be in a recession? Typically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, so we won’t know for sure as of Oct. 1. That means that, if there’s no strong consensus, we may need to cut HumbleDollar’s pundits a little slack on this one.
- The S&P 500’s Oct. 1 closing value? We’re currently at 5500.
- The Nasdaq Composite’s closing value? Right now, we’re at 17000.
- Whether foreign stocks will still be outperforming U.S. stocks in 2025?
- Whether value stocks will still be outperforming growth stocks in 2025?
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury as of Oct. 1? Today, we’re at 4.23%.
Please list your answers below, and then we’ll check back in six months.
Here’s my SWAG:
1. 5.8%
2. 7%
3. Yes
4. 3200
5. 9000
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. 5.5%
Inflation in the area of 4% (3.9% to be exact)
Unemployment 5.2% (I hope it’s only that)
Yes, by definition a recession, but those in power will take to the airwaves to claim that the old definitions don’t hold true this time, and we should trust them.
Perhaps glass half full, but the S&P and NASDAQ are largely stagnant through the remainder of the year (I hope that’s as bad as it gets)
Foreign stocks will NOT outperform US. Exception may be China, otherwise this is self-inflicted mutually assured financial destruction.
Value? No.