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With high conviction: emerging market value stocks.
Perhaps, but I would be very cautious about investing in a market that so many feel is overdue to take off. Having “high conviction” about future prospects can also get one in trouble.
Emerging Markets. The demographics favour them. Blue Chip U.S. stocks that are fairly valued (yes, they do exist).
No doubt there will be unexpected events over the next ten years that will render any predictions useless
Isn’t the point of investing in broad market index funds a recognition that no one can predict with certainty what investments will outperform in the future? Isn’t that why we diversify broadly, so we can have at least some exposure to the market’s future winners, whatever they may be.
I think you nailed this question. Per Niels Bohr “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
For me that’s easy… private companies with great management teams and reasonable valuations. I’ve made more money investing in early stage companies the last 5 years than I could have ver dreamed of.
Workday just acquired one of my investments this past week, Zimit. 20X in less than 3 years. You can down vote as much as you like, I am not upset, because… 1. I am making a fortune. 2. I understand what I am doing.
If you did any bit of research you’d know that the largest return projections are in private equity for the next 5+ years… i.e. Private companies.
Inside the private company universe early stage companies, before they hit the growth phase is part of the value creation curve where the most money is made from a return perspective in the shortest period of time.
I understand that this isn’t for the vast majority of you, because the vast majority of you wouldn’t be able to due diligence or qualify an opportunity if you saw it. But the facts are the facts. If in any doubt, I’d be more than happy to compare my portfolio returns with any of you. 🙂
Methinks though doth protest too much. 🙂
VAW – the Vanguard Materials Index ETF.
Given the enormous size of the US federal debt and entitlement costs, the Federal Reserve will have a very difficult time reigning in inflation which is now raising it’s ugly head. I don’t think there is another Paul Volker waiting in the wings with double digit interest rates.
Small cap Japanese banks.
Just kidding. Well, maybe.
I think ex-US value & small stocks will do well. That group may seem small, but the universe contains thousands of stocks. Many of which have missed out on the massive gains seen in the big cap tech space.
I’ve positioned my portfolio somewhat significantly in VSS (the Vanguard Ex-US Small Cap Fund). It avoids the US market obviously but also has no exposure to big foreign firms like Tencent, Alibaba, and Taiwan Semi.
I anticipate some reversion to the mean with respect to returns in foreign markets and US markets.
Just my 2 cents.
What are your thoughts on the Avantis International Small Cap ETF (AVDV)? Do you prefer VSS because it is passive?