IS IT TIME TO STOP messing around with our portfolios—and go for radical simplicity? I’ve been asking myself that question in recent months, as I eye the growing list of funds that offer broadly diversified “one-stop shopping” portfolios built solely with low-cost index funds.
Take Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 Fund, which invests its assets in four Vanguard index funds and is geared toward those retiring in 2050 or thereabouts. The 2050 fund has a $1,000 investment minimum and charges just 0.15% a year,
DEPENDING ON WHO you talk to, we have a major problem in the U.S. with productivity growth, economic growth, the trade deficit, the budget deficit, public sector pensions, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid—or, if folks are feeling especially gloomy, perhaps all of the above. But the reality is, these issues are, at least in part, merely symptoms of a far larger problem.
What’s that? We’re rapidly approaching the point where we don’t have enough workers producing the goods and services that society needs.
HUMBLEDOLLAR ISN’T the financial website for everybody. Instead, it’s the place that folks end up after they have made their fair share of youthful financial mistakes—and they’re ready to settle down and get serious about money. I even briefly toyed with adding a tagline to the site: “Where Money Grows Up.”
What does grown-up money look like? It’s less about the size of your nest egg—and more about attitude. Here are 21 signs you’re a HumbleDollar reader:
When your neighbors show off their remodeled kitchen,
THERE ARE MANY financial debates that shouldn’t be debates at all. Folks strike strident poses, but often their positions don’t reflect a careful weighing of the arguments. Rather, they either have a vested interest or their ego is invested. Think of commission-hungry insurance agents who pound the table for cash-value life insurance, or retirees who took Social Security early and then insist that early is always best.
In most of these cases, if we marshal the facts and apply some reasoning,
TRYING TO BEAT the market isn’t just a risky endeavor that will almost certainly end in failure. It’s also unnecessary and, arguably, an astonishing waste of money and time.
As I grow older, the clock ticks ever more loudly in my head. I hate to be kept waiting. I keep chores to a minimum. I try to eliminate activities from my day that bring little pleasure and have no purpose. I think hard before acquiring new possessions,
I FEAR I AM growing wealthy at my children’s expense. My investing life began in the late 1980s. Yes, there have been stock market bumps since then, notably the 2000-02 and 2007-09 market crashes, and even a minor hiccup over the past week. But if you look at the broad trend, it’s been three decades of rising stock market valuations.
From year-end 1987 to year-end 2017, the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple climbed from 13.8 to 24.6,
AS I WAS PREPARING for HumbleDollar’s January 2017 launch, my web developer suggested I add a mission statement to the top of the homepage. That mission statement morphed into a daily insight, which then became a daily Tweet that also found its way onto my Facebook page. Like the family that moves from a three-bedroom house to a one-bedroom apartment, I embraced the challenge of shoehorning financial ideas into 140 characters or less.
Twitter has since expanded the allowable character count to 280,
IMAGINE AN IDEALIZED chart that summarizes our finances over the course of our lives. What would the chart look like? Picture these five lines:
Our nest egg grows, slowly at first and then ever faster, hitting a peak of around 12 times our final salary when we retire.
Our portfolio in our 20s stands at perhaps 90% or even 100% stocks. We dial down our allocation in the years that follow, especially during our final decade in the workforce,
TO IMPROVE OUR behavior, we first need to realize we’re on the wrong path and then figure out the right way forward. Often, this isn’t especially difficult. If we have no savings, obviously we need to sock away some money. If we’re overweight, we should cut back on the calories. If we’re out of shape, we need to hit the gym.
Instead, the real problem is getting ourselves to act.
The contemplative side of our brain is fully aware we ought to eat and spend less,
“WHEN YOU’VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.” That’s something my longtime friend and fellow author William Bernstein is fond of saying—and lately it’s been on my mind.
There’s been much handwringing over 2017’s stock market rally. Looked at objectively, it hasn’t been that startling. As of Sept. 29, the S&P 500 was up 14.2% for the year-to-date, with dividends reinvested—a good year, but nothing compared to the 25%-plus years we saw in 1991,
IF WE HAVE DINNER with half-a-dozen others, we might all share the same meal and yet each of us will have a different experience—sometimes radically different. Even as we talk politics, crack jokes and swap gossip, we’ll each have our own thoughts whirling in the background: errands we can’t forget, work issues we need to resolve, incidents from the day we keep replaying, worries we can’t put behind us.
For me, those whirling background thoughts often concern financial notions I want to write about.
WE ARE ALL constrained by the income we have and the wealth we’ve either amassed or had handed to us. Result: Those on low incomes struggle to cover daily expenses. The middle class pay for today, while also socking away money for their own future. What about the rich? They often use their wealth not only for themselves, but also to help future generations.
These are, of course, gross generalizations. Some folks on low incomes manage to save surprising sums for their own retirement.
OVER THE 50 YEARS through year-end 2016, the per-share profits of the S&P 500 companies rose a cumulative 1,604%, equal to 5.8% a year, while inflation ran at 4.1%. If share prices had climbed in lockstep with corporate earnings, $1,000 invested at year-end 1966 would have been worth some $17,000 at year-end 2016. On top of that price appreciation, investors would also have collected dividends.
But in fact, over this 50-year stretch, investors fared far better.
TO BE PRUDENT managers of our own money, we need to read the small print—but we also need to keep an eye on the big picture.
To that end, whenever we make a financial decision, we should ponder three key questions: What’s the tradeoff, does the choice make sense given our broader financial life, and will we feel as good about the decision tomorrow as we do today?
Trading Off. Suppose we remodel the bathroom,
IS “SMART BETA” truly smarter and better?
The world of smart beta, sometimes called factor investing, used to be fairly easy to grasp. In 1981, academic Rolf Banz noted that small-company stocks didn’t just outperform their larger brethren. Rather, they outperformed by more than could be explained by their extra risk, as reflected in greater share price volatility. Similarly, in 1992, finance professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French documented the strong performance of bargain-priced value stocks—and noted that this couldn’t be explained by volatility,