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Let’s Stir Up the Bee’s Nest Again- Another Way of Calculating Net Worth

"Let’s gently “poke the bear.” Do you know how Fidelity calculate net worth? Is it the same as yours, or different?"
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Building Memories by Edmund Marsh

"Thanks for the great Forum post, Ed. Your father sounds like a remarkable man."
- Jonathan Clements
Read more »

Medicare Advantage with No Premiums vs Traditional Medicare with a Plan G Supplement

"We have had Aetna MA PPO ESA through my wife's NYC retirement plan for 6 years and have yet to be denied anything including multiple surgeries and rehab."
- parkslope
Read more »

In Defence of Work

"A sad story which shows that being good at a job does not necessarily lead to financial security or wealth. And furthermore that tying identity to a job where you do not 100% control the parameters cannot ever be a good thing. These are the keys I think to the FI part of the FIRE philosophy. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the OP. I'm sure lots of jobs pay back in plenty of intangibles. But many don't and do have an opportunity cost attached, whether that's health ( physical or mental), relationships or other activities."
- bbbobbins
Read more »

The aging appetite, dealing with leftovers and buying for two seasoned citizens: Rant by RDQ 

"I just think it is unfair to the restaurant. They make their money on meals served to people taking up the available seats. Plus unless a person doubles the tip based on what is spent, it may be unfair the server as well."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Good in Theory

STATISTICIAN GEORGE E.P. Box once made this observation: “All models are wrong,” he said, “but some are useful.” This certainly applies to finance, where many of the concepts are imperfect but can nonetheless still be useful. Below are four such examples. Market valuation. Are stocks overpriced? It’s a question without an easy answer. Even academics who have studied the topic can never be entirely sure. Consider the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Developed in the 1980s by Yale professor Robert Shiller and a colleague, the CAPE ratio gained fame for correctly forecasting the bursting of the “dot-com” technology bubble in 2000. Shiller’s book Irrational Exuberance was published just days before the market peaked. That forecast cemented the CAPE’s reputation. But in 2013, a group of researchers at London Business School took a closer look and found that—aside from the CAPE’s success in 2000—its forecasts wouldn’t have been very helpful. Elroy Dimson, who led this research, concluded: “We learn far less from valuation ratios about how to make profits in the future than about how we might have profited in the past.” Even Shiller acknowledges that the CAPE’s predictive abilities can fall short. In 2021, Shiller made this seemingly contradictory statement in an opinion piece: “The stock market is already quite expensive. But it is also true that stock prices are fairly reasonable right now.” Here’s how he explained this: While the stock market at the time was expensive by historical standards, Shiller noted that investors should never look at any one metric in a vacuum. Investments need to be considered in comparison to other available investment options. On that basis, he said, stocks were not expensive, because bonds at the time were also expensive. The bottom line: We shouldn’t ignore valuation ratios. They can provide a useful point of reference. But we should never react too strongly to any particular reading. Market efficiency. In 2013, an unusual event occurred in Stockholm. When that year’s Nobel Prizes in economics were awarded, two of the winners presented a seeming contradiction. One was Eugene Fama, who developed key ideas in finance that are known as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). According to this theory, stock prices are always rational because they reflect all available information. Thus, according to MPT, there can be no such thing as a bubble, because—by definition—prices are always accurate. When share prices are high, in other words, it’s for a good reason and not because investors are irrational. Another of the Nobel winners that year, however, was Robert Shiller, whose work argued precisely the opposite. In Irrational Exuberance, he demonstrated that markets aren’t always rational and that asset bubbles can and do occur—with the run-up in the late 1990s being a prime example. Despite these opposing views, the Nobel committee granted both Fama and Shiller the prize in economics at the same time. How did the committee explain its decision? On the one hand, it agreed with Fama: “Stock prices are extremely difficult to predict in the short run.” But over the long term, the committee said, prices are more predictable, and valuation metrics like the CAPE—while not perfect—can be helpful. In other words, Shiller and Fama can both be right, even if their ideas seem at odds. Both have acknowledged this, if grudgingly. In an interview, Fama explained it this way: Modern Portfolio Theory “is a model, so it’s not completely true. No models are completely true.” But, he added, “It’s a good working model for most practical uses.” And that’s the key point: Markets may be rational over the long term but are often irrational in the short term. This idea can help investors maintain equanimity through the market’s regular ups and downs. Inflation. Another model which is sometimes accurate is the Phillips curve, which suggests an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. It says that when unemployment is low, inflation will tend to be higher, and vice versa. This theory was developed in the 1950s and seemed to hold true for a time. But more recently, that relationship appears to have broken down. Between 2000 and 2020, inflation was extremely low despite unemployment also being low. In 2019, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, commented: “As for the Phillips curve… most arguments today center around whether it’s dead or just gravely ill. Either way, the relationship between unemployment and inflation has become very difficult to spot.”  Why the change? A key factor is globalization. Low-cost imports, especially from China, grew substantially, helping to hold down consumer prices. It was an ideal economic situation. This is a reason higher tariffs are a concern. If imports from Asia are limited, the Phillips curve tradeoff between inflation and employment may once again become a problem. Taxes. Another economic model that seems to be partly true is the Laffer curve. Developed in the 1970s by economist Arthur Laffer, this theory argues that government revenue should increase when tax rates are lower. It’s counterintuitive, but the idea is that tax cuts should spur economic growth. The Laffer curve is presented as a bell curve. At one end, with a 0% tax rate, the government would collect no revenue. And at the other, with a 100% tax rate, the government would also collect no revenue, because no one would work. Therefore, Laffer argued, there must be an optimal rate in between that maximizes government revenue.  The question: What is that rate? This is precisely the debate that’s occurring today in Washington. The bottom line for investors: Economics is not a perfect science. It describes relationships which are sometimes true, but can also change, sometimes permanently. For that reason, these models are useful to understand—but should never be taken as gospel. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Trips in your “go go” years?

"Have a great trip. I have never been to the UP but would like to."
- Rick Connor
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Talking Trillions by Jonathan Clements

"Why is cutting or trimming defense spending off the table? Cutting funding for veterans is on the table. Peace is cheaper than war yet we seem to have unlimited funds for war, bombs, tanks, jets, drones, interfering in the politics of other nations, and being the world police."
- Jennifer P
Read more »

If I Didn’t Index by Jonathan Clements

"yes, large cap value--yes, different time different results--but for many of us retired folks the year 2000 is, in my opinion, ideal, as is any period where you have major bear markets that make withdrawals very tricky--I want to see results for time periods that encompass the worst not the best. We are constantly told about beginning withdrawals in a down market cycle--well, this 25-year period is just that and is what constitutes a retirement period for maybe at least one spouse. So far I see in my readings here and other places accumulation is always the go to when index is discussed--when I watch NBA finals I see a game played on both sides of the court. In my humble opinion when setting up withdrawals from equity funds, volatility plays a major role. Ed Marsh below echoes my thoughts about spare time and complicated. In this house it has been very simple--4+3 and leave it alone. No green eye shades, no hours picking one index over another, no buckets --no nothing, don't even think about it. Now we have been investing for over 55-years using a few good funds and leaving things alone--adding monthly for those 55-years up to today. Buffett has the right idea when it comes to nervous energy and he is big on indexing to gain wealth--but what about withdrawal? Blue chip stocks--managed fund asset (in my case)--an emphasis on dividends which sure helps to moderate volatility. Works for me."
- Al Lindquist
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No Time Left for Calculating My Net Worth

"Ha! If he/she offers that guarantee - run away as fast as you can!"
- Jeff Bond
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Change Lanes, Expand Your Wheelhouse, Learn Some New Tricks

"I'm very much in agreement with you Norman. I also worked long and made the most of my options on the jobs. All the overtime and shift differential bonus over the decades really added up. I maxed out my retirement opportunities as far as I could, and didn't have to think about that much. For instance, with S.S. my official 'full retirement' age was 66. BUT, at 67, I would receive more, 68 even more! My FULL retirement was 70 for me. I did what I could to get the most and then not have to worry about it. Of course, married folk have many options and having a plan for that circumstance is prudent. So, yes, work long, work wise and enjoy the freedom of time and money in retirement. Freedom to be productive as you want and decide to do."
- Donny Hrubes
Read more »

Let’s Stir Up the Bee’s Nest Again- Another Way of Calculating Net Worth

"Let’s gently “poke the bear.” Do you know how Fidelity calculate net worth? Is it the same as yours, or different?"
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Building Memories by Edmund Marsh

"Thanks for the great Forum post, Ed. Your father sounds like a remarkable man."
- Jonathan Clements
Read more »

Medicare Advantage with No Premiums vs Traditional Medicare with a Plan G Supplement

"We have had Aetna MA PPO ESA through my wife's NYC retirement plan for 6 years and have yet to be denied anything including multiple surgeries and rehab."
- parkslope
Read more »

In Defence of Work

"A sad story which shows that being good at a job does not necessarily lead to financial security or wealth. And furthermore that tying identity to a job where you do not 100% control the parameters cannot ever be a good thing. These are the keys I think to the FI part of the FIRE philosophy. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the OP. I'm sure lots of jobs pay back in plenty of intangibles. But many don't and do have an opportunity cost attached, whether that's health ( physical or mental), relationships or other activities."
- bbbobbins
Read more »

The aging appetite, dealing with leftovers and buying for two seasoned citizens: Rant by RDQ 

"I just think it is unfair to the restaurant. They make their money on meals served to people taking up the available seats. Plus unless a person doubles the tip based on what is spent, it may be unfair the server as well."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Good in Theory

STATISTICIAN GEORGE E.P. Box once made this observation: “All models are wrong,” he said, “but some are useful.” This certainly applies to finance, where many of the concepts are imperfect but can nonetheless still be useful. Below are four such examples. Market valuation. Are stocks overpriced? It’s a question without an easy answer. Even academics who have studied the topic can never be entirely sure. Consider the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Developed in the 1980s by Yale professor Robert Shiller and a colleague, the CAPE ratio gained fame for correctly forecasting the bursting of the “dot-com” technology bubble in 2000. Shiller’s book Irrational Exuberance was published just days before the market peaked. That forecast cemented the CAPE’s reputation. But in 2013, a group of researchers at London Business School took a closer look and found that—aside from the CAPE’s success in 2000—its forecasts wouldn’t have been very helpful. Elroy Dimson, who led this research, concluded: “We learn far less from valuation ratios about how to make profits in the future than about how we might have profited in the past.” Even Shiller acknowledges that the CAPE’s predictive abilities can fall short. In 2021, Shiller made this seemingly contradictory statement in an opinion piece: “The stock market is already quite expensive. But it is also true that stock prices are fairly reasonable right now.” Here’s how he explained this: While the stock market at the time was expensive by historical standards, Shiller noted that investors should never look at any one metric in a vacuum. Investments need to be considered in comparison to other available investment options. On that basis, he said, stocks were not expensive, because bonds at the time were also expensive. The bottom line: We shouldn’t ignore valuation ratios. They can provide a useful point of reference. But we should never react too strongly to any particular reading. Market efficiency. In 2013, an unusual event occurred in Stockholm. When that year’s Nobel Prizes in economics were awarded, two of the winners presented a seeming contradiction. One was Eugene Fama, who developed key ideas in finance that are known as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). According to this theory, stock prices are always rational because they reflect all available information. Thus, according to MPT, there can be no such thing as a bubble, because—by definition—prices are always accurate. When share prices are high, in other words, it’s for a good reason and not because investors are irrational. Another of the Nobel winners that year, however, was Robert Shiller, whose work argued precisely the opposite. In Irrational Exuberance, he demonstrated that markets aren’t always rational and that asset bubbles can and do occur—with the run-up in the late 1990s being a prime example. Despite these opposing views, the Nobel committee granted both Fama and Shiller the prize in economics at the same time. How did the committee explain its decision? On the one hand, it agreed with Fama: “Stock prices are extremely difficult to predict in the short run.” But over the long term, the committee said, prices are more predictable, and valuation metrics like the CAPE—while not perfect—can be helpful. In other words, Shiller and Fama can both be right, even if their ideas seem at odds. Both have acknowledged this, if grudgingly. In an interview, Fama explained it this way: Modern Portfolio Theory “is a model, so it’s not completely true. No models are completely true.” But, he added, “It’s a good working model for most practical uses.” And that’s the key point: Markets may be rational over the long term but are often irrational in the short term. This idea can help investors maintain equanimity through the market’s regular ups and downs. Inflation. Another model which is sometimes accurate is the Phillips curve, which suggests an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. It says that when unemployment is low, inflation will tend to be higher, and vice versa. This theory was developed in the 1950s and seemed to hold true for a time. But more recently, that relationship appears to have broken down. Between 2000 and 2020, inflation was extremely low despite unemployment also being low. In 2019, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, commented: “As for the Phillips curve… most arguments today center around whether it’s dead or just gravely ill. Either way, the relationship between unemployment and inflation has become very difficult to spot.”  Why the change? A key factor is globalization. Low-cost imports, especially from China, grew substantially, helping to hold down consumer prices. It was an ideal economic situation. This is a reason higher tariffs are a concern. If imports from Asia are limited, the Phillips curve tradeoff between inflation and employment may once again become a problem. Taxes. Another economic model that seems to be partly true is the Laffer curve. Developed in the 1970s by economist Arthur Laffer, this theory argues that government revenue should increase when tax rates are lower. It’s counterintuitive, but the idea is that tax cuts should spur economic growth. The Laffer curve is presented as a bell curve. At one end, with a 0% tax rate, the government would collect no revenue. And at the other, with a 100% tax rate, the government would also collect no revenue, because no one would work. Therefore, Laffer argued, there must be an optimal rate in between that maximizes government revenue.  The question: What is that rate? This is precisely the debate that’s occurring today in Washington. The bottom line for investors: Economics is not a perfect science. It describes relationships which are sometimes true, but can also change, sometimes permanently. For that reason, these models are useful to understand—but should never be taken as gospel. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Trips in your “go go” years?

"Have a great trip. I have never been to the UP but would like to."
- Rick Connor
Read more »

Talking Trillions by Jonathan Clements

"Why is cutting or trimming defense spending off the table? Cutting funding for veterans is on the table. Peace is cheaper than war yet we seem to have unlimited funds for war, bombs, tanks, jets, drones, interfering in the politics of other nations, and being the world police."
- Jennifer P
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

think

FLOW. We imagine what we want most is time to relax. But in truth, we get great satisfaction from work—provided it’s work we find challenging and interesting, and feel we’re good at. All this is captured by psychology professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s notion of flow. During moments of flow, we can become completely absorbed and lose all sense of time.

act

DECIDE WHICH DEBTS to pay off first. Looking to repay your loans more quickly than required? You’ll usually want to focus on ridding yourself of your highest-interest debt. But suppose you have a car loan that’s almost paid off. Even if the rate is low, you might pay extra toward that loan—because eliminating it will immediately improve your monthly cash flow.

Truths

NO. 142: MUCH OF OUR financial success can be explained by luck—the family we're born into, the value that today’s economy puts on our talents, whether our bosses take a shine to us, whether the financial markets treat us well. The upshot: No matter how much success we’ve enjoyed, we should resist growing overconfident or being dismissive of others.

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Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Borrowing

Pain Postponed

BUY NOW PAY LATER is an online payment method that’s growing in popularity. Money and investors have moved toward participating companies big and small, as they seek to stake their claim in this growing market. What’s the big deal and why is everyone excited?
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) allows consumers to purchase goods and pay for them in the future. Approval happens in seconds. You make a down payment, such as 25% of the total purchase,

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Helping Ourselves

WE NEEDED MONEY to close on a new home. The mortgage process progressed smoothly—until the underwriters suddenly rejected the property right before closing. To get together the money needed to close, my wife and I had to resort to loan sharks—ourselves.
We borrowed from our IRAs. The rules allow tax-free distributions for either a 60-day rollover to a new IRA or reinvestment back into the same IRA. When we called Vanguard Group to execute our “rollovers,” the phone reps were well-versed on this short-term,

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Playing Your Cards

YOU’VE PROBABLY already asked yourself this question: Is it better for my credit score to have just one credit card—or many?
There’s no magic number, because it isn’t really about how many credit cards you have. Rather, what matters is your financial situation and how you handle your cards. For example, if you are just beginning to build a credit history, it’s best to have a single card. Try to follow three rules:

Pay your bills on time—and avoid late payments at all costs.

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Losing at Cards

QUITTING CREDIT CARDS might be more difficult than quitting cigarettes. I’ve done both. I’ve not smoked in 36 years. But it wasn’t until 11 months ago that I stopped charging on my credit cards.
I got my first card at age 15 from the biggest department store in my hometown. It was 1971, and my card’s limit was $50. The store was locally owned, so perhaps it was easier to obtain credit as a minor without steady income.

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You May Be Surprised

IF YOU’RE LIKE MANY people, you’ll cringe when I mention reverse mortgages. The perception is that they’re loans of last resort for desperate retirees who don’t have any other options. But I suggest keeping an open mind. I believe reverse mortgages can be a shrewd way to unlock liquidity during retirement.
Reverse mortgages have evolved significantly, and retirees are often pleasantly surprised when they learn how today’s loans work. They find that many of the negatives they’ve heard are no longer true.

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Spotlight: Quinn

Bad to Worse

IF YOU’RE IN a financial hole, is it prudent to keep digging? There are 60 million Americans covered by Medicare, including 20 million who have opted for Medicare Advantage. These beneficiaries paid for their coverage through payroll taxes during their working years, and they currently pay with premiums and out-of-pocket cost sharing, as well as through taxes on Social Security benefits. Still, this covers only a portion of total costs. In 2013, 38% of Medicare’s costs came from payroll taxes and 13% from Medicare premiums, but 41% came from general tax revenue. Our immediate problem: All of the above funding is inadequate to sustain current Medicare, let alone expand it. Medicare’s Trustees estimate the 75-year unfunded liability at $37 trillion. But that’s not the full story. According to the 2019 Trustees Report, “The estimated depletion date for the [Hospital Insurance] trust fund is 2026... The fund has not met the Trustees’ formal test of short-range financial adequacy since 2003… the difference between Medicare’s total outlays and its dedicated financing sources is projected to exceed 45% of outlays within 7 years.” As a group, seniors consume 36% of all U.S. health care spending. Yet Medicare benefits are deemed inadequate by many, because of deductibles and co-pays, coverage gaps and the absence of an out-of-pocket limit. As a result, most beneficiaries either purchase Medigap insurance or opt for Medicare Advantage, thereby filling some of those coverage gaps. Premiums for Medigap vary widely, but $200 a month is fairly typical. Medicare Advantage often also requires a monthly premium. Keep in mind that this group is nearly 20% of all Americans and it’s growing rapidly—and yet now we’re debating whether to go beyond Medicare for seniors to offering universal health care to all Americans. The added cost would be significant—and I’m talking here only about seniors. Those of us on Medicare would have all out-of-pocket costs eliminated, plus coverage may be expanded to include dental, vision, hearing and long-term “custodial” care—all areas not regularly covered by Medicare. It is estimated that 75% of seniors who need a hearing aid don’t have one. The typical cost is $4,500. Meanwhile, 70% who have trouble eating because of their teeth have not seen a dentist in a year, and 45% who have trouble seeing have avoided an eye exam. Is there pent-up demand? You bet. What about long-term care? Covering nursing home costs is so risky and costly that many insurers have ceased selling long-term-care insurance. After initially being included in Obamacare proposals, it was dropped because it wasn’t feasible. Today, Medicaid covers 62% of nursing home residents—at an annual cost of $55 billion. What if it became 100%? What if the government started covering all kinds of long-term care, including care at home and in assisted living facilities? So let’s think about this: We have the potential for 60 million Americans in an already underfunded program gaining substantial new benefits. Most already struggle to pay their health care costs, so it would be tough to get them to pay even more. Who will pay the added cost of universal care for me and my fellow senior citizens? Hey millennial, can you loan me a dime? Richard Quinn blogs at QuinnsCommentary.com. Before retiring in 2010, Dick was a compensation and benefits executive. His previous articles include Missing the Point, An Old Man's Gripes, Money Pit and Crying Poverty. Follow Dick on Twitter @QuinnsComments. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Bad Old Days

I RECALL PAYDAY IN 1961, when I was at my first job. There was a paymaster who would deliver our paychecks. At break time, we would be off to the nearest bank to cash our checks. I deposited most of mine in a savings account, plus $2 in my Christmas Club account. But many of my fellow workers took the whole check in cash. I always thought taking cash was a bit risky. I once got up the nerve to ask a few friends why they took cash. One told me that, once home, he placed the cash in envelopes designated for various bills and then paid those bills in cash. Another friend said he didn’t want his wife to know how much he made. He gave her an allowance and kept the rest. This was especially important when overtime pay was involved. The extra cash was not, in his view, part of the family’s finances. I later realized this was a common attitude. Whatever the man earned was his money. Remember, this was 61 years ago. A few years later, the paymaster was gone and checks were mailed home. There was near panic in some parts of the company as workers scrambled to change the address where the checks were sent. Many designated their work address. Those of us in employee benefits earned the ire of the unions when we decided to mail group term-life insurance certificates to each employee. It never occurred to me that not only did many spouses not know the amount of insurance in force, but also many didn’t know there was life insurance. The insurance was equal to one-and-a-half-times base annual pay. In a few instances, we created family strife when it was learned the spouse wasn’t the beneficiary. This—what I call pure selfishness—extended beyond pay. Before the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) of 1974, a worker had total control over his pension, married or not. To maximize his benefit, it was normal for workers to take a single-life annuity. But ERISA required that, if married, the pension would be paid as a joint-and-survivor annuity, unless the spouse waived her right. I welcomed that change not only because it was fair, but also I was tired of receiving calls from new widows looking for their pension and having to tell them there was none. “But my George told me I would get everything I deserved” carried a double meaning, alas. In 1984, the Retirement Equity Act created the qualified domestic relations order (QDRO) and added a new wrinkle to the male-dominated “it’s mine, I earned it” attitude. Now, it was clear a spouse was entitled to a portion of the worker’s pension and other retirement income benefits—that they had earned the money together. This change was a real shock to some workers and retirees. I received more than one threat from workers faced with the prospect of losing a portion of their pension to an ex-spouse. One older retiree showed up at the building with a gun when his pension was cut in half. He had ignored the QDRO that had been filed, and I had no choice but to enforce it. Thankfully, those one-sided days of handling family income are long gone—I hope. Many of us, me included, dislike excessive government regulation. But there are times when society needs a push to do the right thing.
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The aging appetite, dealing with leftovers and buying for two seasoned citizens: Rant by RDQ 

As much as I hate to admit it and exercise regular self-denial, I am old. All the signs are there, my date of birth for one, right in the middle of WWII. There are maybe ten of us born in 1943. Actually 2.9 million of which about 50% can still read HD. I take the occasional nap-unintentionally though. I bother people by engaging in conversation and telling stories, my grandchildren call me Pa. Actually nowadays my children do as well.  But the most obvious sign - as long as I don’t look in the mirror- is a decline in my appetite. It’s not a clinical thing or extreme which can happen, I just fill up with less. Actually it's common for older people to eat less, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as "anorexia of aging." That sounds rather dire, but the fact is as people age, their metabolism slows down and they often become less physically active - note nap reference, meaning they require fewer calories to maintain their weight.  The only things about me that are as physically active as in my younger years are my typing fingers - both of them.  All this has resulted in a fridge full of leftovers, much from restaurants. Tonight my dining choices include leftover Chinese or leftover eggplant parmigiana. It’s been a busy week. I’m going with the Chinese as it’s a day older than the Italian.  Unless we are in a fine dining establishment we have taken to asking for take away boxes before being served. We put the soon to be leftovers in the boxes before we eat. It’s neater that way. I haven’t figured out how to successfully and discreetly unbox if we miscalculated and want to eat more.  We have not and will not split an entree although we do order one desert on occasion often at the urging of the server - better one than none. Last week we went to dinner with cousins. Connie and I each ordered a meal and cousins split a salad. I was embarrassed- yeah, I know, why? It made me feel like a glutton with my chicken gumbo meal. If you are going out to dinner, have dinner.  Have you noticed there is very little food you can buy just sufficient for two? I understand why, but it’s still annoying and it helps to add to leftovers. We like cranberry sauce with chicken dishes, but you can only get a 15 oz can. They used to make a can half that size, but no more. So now after a chicken dinner, the plastic wrapped dish with cranberries sits in the fridge until we figure out what to eat it with - or throw it out. I was looking for Cheerios the other day. All they had were the family size box. I’ll be eating honey nut Cheerios for six months, long past the “Best By” date - an estimate of declining taste quality, not safety.  The cohort life expectancy, which attempts to account for improvements in mortality over a person's lifetime, says for people born in 1943 it is 71.7 years. Good thing those “use by” and “best by” dates are bad guesses.  Getting old can be frustrating. 
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Bah Humbug

MY LEAST FAVORITE time of the year is fast approaching—the holidays. The curmudgeonly part of me will be on full display. Don’t get me wrong, there are many aspects that I like. I enjoy the spirit of Christmas, the music, getting together with friends and family, and eating. But let’s face it, there’s a lot of stress, aggravation—and money to be spent. My DVR stores A Christmas Story, which is my favorite holiday movie and which I watch every December. I can relate to the family in the movie, including the temperamental coal furnace, and I sympathize with Ralphie. Unlike Ralphie, I never wanted a Red Ryder rifle. Instead, I wanted electric trains, which I did get one year. I can also relate to Ralphie’s pink bunny pajamas. One year, I asked for a basketball—pretty simple. What I received was a beach ball imprinted like a basketball. In the first week of November, I was hearing holiday songs on the radio and I passed a church already decorated for Christmas, including a lighted tree on the lawn. Needless to say, stores have been stocked with Christmas decorations since Labor Day. Is there an actual season any longer? I began writing this before visiting—not voluntarily—a Hobby Lobby, where we and many other shoppers were loading up on Christmas decorations. That’s despite our storage area already bursting with past years’ bargains. [caption id="attachment_1535643" align="alignright" width="400"] A young Dick Quinn (second from left) at his grandmother's house for the holidays circa 1953[/caption] Spend $269 on decorations? That’s what some research says the average American lavishes on lights, tinsel and such. My least favorite holiday items are those lawn blow-up things, not classy in my humble opinion. My wife and I gave up exchanging gifts years ago. There’s simply nothing we want or need. Let’s face it, what happens to many gifts—perhaps most—is they’re returned, broken in a day or two, or shortly forgotten and go unused. I recall the stress of finding the right gift for my wife. One year, decades ago, I thought I had it. I presented her with a microwave oven. It was a cold Christmas, but my marriage survived. Thereafter, it was one-stop shopping at my favorite jeweler. Folks who celebrate Hanukkah aren’t immune to all this. The best research I could find estimated the average spent on that holiday at around $600. They say it’s the thought that counts. I’m not so sure. A National Retail Federation study found that retailers expect about 17.8% of all merchandise sold in the holiday season to be returned, either online or in person. That’s $158 billion worth of goods. Near the top of the return list is apparel. I can relate. As a kid, I received an endless supply of clip-on ties, socks and underwear. Whoopee. Think of all the time, stress and money that goes into shopping. It’s greatly stimulated by advertising—often misleading when it comes to toys that don’t actually fly. Then there’s the work involved. Dragging decorations out of storage, putting them up—occasionally at dangerous heights—and then putting all the stuff back after a few weeks. Fun, really? Or is it keeping up with the neighbors? [xyz-ihs snippet="Holiday-Donate"] A simple wreath on the door would do, and would certainly be more traditional. Most Americans didn’t even decorate or have Christmas trees until the mid-19th century. When I was a child, we went to Grandma’s house for Thanksgiving dinner and Christmas. I’ve come to realize that Grandma didn’t have it so easy, doing all the work herself. Grandpa did none of that. But he did take the metal tinsel off the tree and reused it year after year. Can you imagine? If you’ve never planned, shopped for, prepared or served a holiday meal—and then cleaned up afterward—you have no idea of the work involved. If you go elsewhere for a holiday meal, be sure to thank the host and perhaps help with the cleanup, too. By the way, a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people cost $64.05 on average this year, or so says the American Farm Bureau’s annual informal price survey. Who are they kidding? I spent $57 alone for a 19-pound turkey. My suggestion: Let’s make all holidays less about stuff and more about what makes them truly special—time with friends and family. Richard Quinn blogs at QuinnsCommentary.net. Before retiring in 2010, Dick was a compensation and benefits executive. Follow him on Twitter @QuinnsComments and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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My $233 Surgery

IT TOOK MONEY TO resolve my recent health issue—on the surface, a lot of money. But figuring out what it really cost is difficult. Actually, I found it impossible. Still, being a health benefits nerd, I couldn’t resist looking at the claims processed by Medicare and my Medigap insurance. Trying to understand billed charges, allowable charges and the resulting payments is daunting. I’m guessing most patients wouldn’t even try. Why should they? My surgery was in the outpatient department but required an overnight stay. I walked into the hospital at 11:30 a.m. on day one and was out at 11 a.m. on the second day. The hospital billed Medicare $43,294, which covered scores of services, each billed separately. Medicare approved the entire amount. Pharmacy costs totaled $936.71, which is a lot of drugs. The only non-intravenous drugs I had were Tylenol and one Oxycodone. I can attest to how good the latter makes you feel. My favorite individual service charge was $109 for “insertion of needle into vein for collection of blood sample”—twice. Each collection resulted in seven separate billings for different blood tests, at a total cost of $1,567.10. Interestingly, the same tests were done two days in a row. Could my blood cell count change in 12 hours? Not being a doctor, who knows? Pathology was $900. The operating room charge was a whopping $20,000. I’m thinking the robot used in the surgery got a piece of that $20,000. Anesthesia was another $5,000. I’m certainly thankful for anesthesia, but the $5,000 wasn’t for the administration of the anesthesia. Instead, the anesthesiologist’s charge was a separate bill. Six assorted injections added another $358.81 to the total. Is all this itemization necessary? Or does it create an incentive to provide more services? Why is it important to know, for example, that an injection of an antibiotic cost $5.08? The Medicare explanation of benefits says it was a drug “requiring detailed coding.” Administrative requirements, it seems, are not limited to private insurance. Now for the really interesting stuff: the doctor’s charges. Back in January, I had several rather unpleasant tests and procedures in the doctor’s office. The first test was billed at $1,737. Medicare’s allowed benefit—in other words, what it paid—was $447.04. Another procedure was $1,275 and Medicare allowed $240.82. The insertion of a catheter was described as “complicated” and billed at $400. Medicare paid $88.76. I’m not sure “complicated” is the right word to describe that procedure. All the services were billed as rendered on a single date, which they weren’t. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] Here’s another favorite charge in my journey: The anesthesiologist billed $4,482 and Medicare allowed $393.64. How can health care providers survive on such low fees? They don’t. Those reduced payments from Medicare are partly recouped through the fees charged to private-insurance patients and, in the worst case, the uninsured. It’s called cost-shifting. What is a fair and appropriate charge for all this stuff? Who knows? But here’s the thing: I don’t care what it all costs. My out-of-pocket expense for all this health care was just $233, which is my Medicare Part B deductible. Why so little? I pay an additional $240 a month for Medigap supplemental insurance, which covers expenses that Medicare doesn’t. My attitude to health care costs is similar to that of most patients, who are focused solely on getting better. In any case, given that I didn’t see any of these charges until nearly two months after the services were provided, what could I possibly do? It makes you wonder who pays for all this care. The lion’s share of Medicare is covered by a 1.45% payroll tax on all wages, which is levied on both workers and employers, for a 2.9% total. On average, seniors pay premiums of around $400 a month, including premiums for Medicare Part B, Medigap insurance and Part D drug coverage. Those who sign up for Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage may also have additional out-of-pocket expenses, which can be quite substantial, depending on the drug. This is how Medicare works for some 64 million Americans. But what about the larger population? Given the high cost of health insurance and the lack of universal coverage, it’s no wonder many people are seeking a better way. One of the most common recommendations is that we expand Medicare to cover everyone. But as my recent medical procedure suggests, paying for health care raises all kinds of thorny issues: If private-insurance patients effectively subsidize Medicare by paying more, what happens if we move to a system where everybody’s on Medicare? How will hospitals cover costs and what will happen to doctors’ incomes? The hope is that patients will become more attuned to costs and smarter consumers of health care. But how does that happen if patients don’t know what costs they’ve incurred until weeks or months later? How does that happen if everything is covered beyond a small deductible and modest copays—or, in the case of some versions of Medicare for All, there’s no cost to the patient? Compared with what many workers and individuals pay, Medicare is a bargain. Still, seniors pay an average $400 a month in premiums—and, remember, there are also deductibles and copays. Will workers be happy with universal coverage once they understand the full costs they’ll incur, most of which will be in the form of new taxes? Universal coverage will increase demand for health care services, while lowering payment rates to providers. How will health care providers respond? What will happen to the supply of care and the types of care provided? Richard Quinn blogs at QuinnsCommentary.net. Before retiring in 2010, Dick was a compensation and benefits executive. Follow him on Twitter @QuinnsComments and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Going Without

I RECENTLY READ about a trendy way to lose weight: intermittent fasting. Supposedly there are also health benefits. That got me thinking. I’ve been roundly criticized for bashing the financial independence/retire early movement, otherwise known as FIRE, and for arguing that average Americans spend unnecessarily on all kinds of stuff, thus hampering their long-term financial security. My point of view hasn’t changed. But I’ve found room for compromise: Think of it as periodic financial fasting. I maintain that this strategy can work at virtually all income levels. Alas, it’ll still be an uphill battle to make converts. Surveys show most people would rather cut back spending in retirement than spend less today. No doubt that sounds easy—until you’re retired. At the same time, however, 87% of Americans appear willing to make tradeoffs to catch up on retirement savings. What’s my strategy? Start by tracking every penny you spend over a 30- to 60-day period. Once you have your list, check off each item that isn’t essential spending—and be honest. This exercise will also help you figure out if living paycheck to paycheck is more about your spending than how much you earn. Here’s an idea of what counts as essential spending: food, housing, clothing, transportation, utilities and health care, including those insurance premiums. Everything else is discretionary. That said, there’s also a great deal of wiggle-room within the essential category. A case of soda at the grocery store or leasing a luxury car are questionable for the essential category. Streaming services and premium cable channels are not utilities. Next, decide which of the items on your list you can do without—not forever necessarily, but for a period of time. You may decide to alternate your fasting. For example, give up designer coffee for two months and then give up eating out for the next two months. For many people, that could easily yield a few hundred dollars over a couple of months. When it comes to a big item like vacations, tone it down for a year. Whatever works for you. After you’ve accumulated a pool of savings, it’s time to invest. Building an emergency fund comes first. After that, you need to settle on a retirement strategy. How about a traditional or Roth IRA? At some point, maybe you’ll also open a regular, taxable brokerage account. You can buy a mutual fund from Fidelity Investments or Charles Schwab with as little as $1, but $250 would be a more meaningful start. What if your goal is to buy an individual stock? You might invest once you’ve accumulated $1,000. Using an online broker, you can elect to buy $1,000 worth of a stock and receive whole and fractional shares in your account. My point: You don’t need a fortune to get started. Be sure to reinvest all distributions from your funds and all dividends from your individual stocks. True, when you start out, the sums available for reinvestment will be modest. Don’t be deterred. Growth will come as the process continues. The amount you can save will, of course, depend on your income and the discretionary spending you abstain from. There may be another benefit to all this: You could become addicted to saving and investing. Like the super-rich, you may discover it’s the quest that’s exciting—and you’ll be inspired to keep going and save even more. Don’t be concerned about the stock market’s ups and downs. Every dip in the value of a mutual fund or an individual stock means you can buy more shares through investing and reinvesting. You’re running a marathon, not a 100-yard dash. Like the idea of financial fasting? You might supplement the money from spending cuts with income from a part-time job. Work at it for a few months and build up your initial investment. Even $500 or $1,000 helps. The immediate goal is to get out from under the “I can’t afford to save” mindset. Yes, you can. As Shakespeare put it, “Things won are done, joy’s soul lies in the doing.” Richard Quinn blogs at QuinnsCommentary.com. Before retiring in 2010, Dick was a compensation and benefits executive. His previous articles include Getting Catty, Give Until It Hurts and Food for Thought. Follow Dick on Twitter @QuinnsComments. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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